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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
18 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I know it's a short run but ICON is looking like a stonker.  T156:

image.thumb.jpg.9bdaae66ed5f91446378f01509f7488f.jpg

I wonder if this 12 suite will be the one that really starts showing the cold charts.  If the strat signals and other background signals are right, they should start showing in FI very soon.

I know even a broken clock is right twice a day but the icon is a sub standard model in my opinion, it doesn’t pick up the small nuances that the other models pick up. Not ruling it out I just think it’s a useless model, unless the GFS follows then it’s the best model ever 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

I know even a broken clock is right twice a day but the icon is a sub standard model in my opinion, it doesn’t pick up the small nuances that the other models pick up. Not ruling it out I just think it’s a useless model, unless the GFS follows then it’s the best model ever 

I'd rather have a UKMO / ECM combo TBH

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I'd rather have a UKMO / ECM combo TBH

Ukmo at t120. Plenty of opportunity for the ridge to go nw as the pv goes east.

1ACCB005-BB60-4EDC-AD00-8C78421C58F1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I'd rather have a UKMO / ECM combo TBH

Didn’t we basically have that near the beginning of December and the GFS came out on top in watering down the cold, sod’s law always seems the model/s that shows the least favourable outcome turns out to be right 

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
13 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

I know even a broken clock is right twice a day but the icon is a sub standard model in my opinion, it doesn’t pick up the small nuances that the other models pick up. Not ruling it out I just think it’s a useless model, unless the GFS follows then it’s the best model ever 

Well I’d argue that weathizard...:oops: It picked up the March Easterly early and stuck to its guns. 

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

UKMO 144 looks pretty solid to me again- Deep cold hitting Northern europe & side swiping the UK in the form of a Northerly-

168 could be very good...

 

Im 50/50 steve

so close to a game changer at 144 but still too much energy sticking its unwanted nose in for my liking..

Of course i will bow to your superior knowledge in all things NWP but the energy south of Greeny might be the spoiler..

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Im 50/50 steve

so close to a game changer at 144 but still too much energy sticking its unwanted nose in for my liking..

Of course i will bow to your superior knowledge in all things NWP but the energy south of Greeny might be the spoiler..

It looks ok to me, the low in the Atlantic looks like it would help keep it from running over too quickly. I'd be more worried about the PV being to close to the pole for a decent enough amplitude of the high. Maybe an Icelandic wedge?

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

GFS with a good ridge north T168:

image.thumb.jpg.149002d5568563f5bc0bf0eb06208f29.jpg

All I am looking for on this set of runs, is an inclination of heights moving north in our neck of the woods, where they go later in FI not that relevant, the models won't have clarity on the signal from the SSW yet I just want to see the potential for ridging in the semi-reliable.  

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

gFS develops a larger area of PV on the ESB on the 12z and looks to be flattening any ridging imo.

Edited by swfc
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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

doesn’t it  always want to flatten the ridge,don’t think any cold spells would develop if you just relied on gfs ,until a cold spell is about 3 days ahead.Tiresome model to look at.

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Posted
  • Location: Hernia Bay
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow
  • Location: Hernia Bay
4 minutes ago, Rapodo said:

Silence says it's all. Gfs couldn't be more opposite if it tried and back to square one. Groundhog day again! 

I reckon it will be another two days 

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
3 minutes ago, Rapodo said:

Silence says it's all. Gfs couldn't be more opposite if it tried and back to square one. Groundhog day again! 

Hopefully the gFS para is a blinder!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

To be honest watching the GFS currently is really starting to bore me - next!

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

image.thumb.png.f4d2bb16556f3381505c54af63983edf.png

Feb my phone isn't great,what is that chart showing?tia

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