Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

[legritter]

Good morning cold lovers .I do like the look of the 192 hrs chart on the ECM this morning ,not taking it as gospel but this evenings run could be interesting ,perhaps more in our favour ,lets keep our fingers and toes crossed .it does look like things become more mobile as we reach around the latter stages of  the GFS , so perhaps some hope for us snow lovers .i know we are all waiting behind the settee hoping for that magical run  of charts that show cold snow frost etc but we must remain Strong .Todays met office update due out soon ,perhaps we can gleen something from that .AN update from my local squirrels ,they are out enjoying the mild weather ,but going around chattering ,think they are saying Block moving north prepare for winter ,stock pile the food ,but i may be mistaken .take care all ,Stellas all round  and enjoy yesterdays left overs ..ps my dog is getting excited ,perhaps something afoot .

 

 

[Minnizi]

21 minutes ago, Borei said:

I've read pages and pages of hope-casting and analysis about how much better the output is, occasionally how it's now showing the down-welling effects of SSW, and why (although it's still fairly zonal) that's just because of model bias. 

Yet, on a rational basis, there are still very few signs of northern blocking. It's just not there on current output.

 

 

 

The thread is hunt for cold, which is what ppl are doing with op's if they didnt there wouldnt be no thread

[snowfish1]

25 minutes ago, Rapodo said:

The 7th of January has always been the turning point in my opinion we are still 13 days away and 5 days left of December. The fact we are seeing changes this early can surely only be a good thing with an attempt at a possible qtr being modelled by the gfs. I'm far more optimistic of a better outcome by mid January and much more optimistic that we will start to see some eye candy runs in the next few days. 

Spot on rapodo 

Edited December 26, 2018 by snowfish1

[Timmytour]

While I hope this time it is right, I can't help thinking the phrase "the next few days will bring us eye candy runs" is a weather forum's equivalent of "the cheque's in the post"!

[Penicuikblizzard]

Will happily take cold zonal rather than what we have right now ️

[CanadaAl]

Bringing back memories of 2012/2013. Starting to see the signs of a change. We're about a week ahead 2012/2013 so I agree that 7th Jan onwards will get interesting. I know no two years are the same but I'm crossing my fingers!

Edited December 26, 2018 by CanadaAl

[CanadaAl]

1 hour ago, snowfish1 said:

It's early days. People taking output as gospel again. Effects of the much spoken about ssw are still being factored in 

Thank you. I'm thinking 28/29 onward we will get a slightly better idea. It's going to be tough though since the Jet might be getting ramped up by the deep cold in the US and Canada

[bluearmy]

Clusters are back 

extended run wasn’t so great so no surprise to see the ridge with more traction around 25% 

of course we have no Idea re continuity on these which is an issue 

[inghams85]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Clusters are back 

extended run wasn’t so great so no surprise to see the ridge with more traction around 25% 

of course we have no Idea re continuity on these which is an issue 

Long term I have to say I'm concerned at the ECM watering down the SSW and splt. Would rather this upgrading over the GFS

[Methuselah]

If the FV3 is picking-up on anything, it's a change to a more mobile westerly regime, of mild, wet mush alternating with colder showery conditions...It's still 5-days' too soon for any FI-signals for an easterly to be apparent, IMO...?

 

[summer blizzard]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

If the FV3 is picking-up on anything, it's a change to a more mobile westerly regime, of mild, wet mush alternating with colder showery conditions...It's still 5-days' too soon for any FI-signals for an easterly to be apparent, IMO...?

 

It's worth noting that if the MJO is going to be as amplified as GFS suggests then this will delay a pressure rise over Scandinavia even more since phase 6-7 tend to build pressure west of us so looking for northerlies over easterlies is a strong bet.

If we do keep high amplitude into phase 8 and 1 though with a weak vortex then that is the time we'll party.

[Borei]

1 hour ago, Minnizi said:

The thread is hunt for cold, which is what ppl are doing with op's if they didnt there wouldnt be no thread

I accept that, but unrealistic interpretation of the model output does not make cold happen, and serves only to mis-lead and disappoint. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

I'm seeing pretty-much the same as I saw yesterday: despite reading pages and pages of glorious 'upgrades', we are still no nearer a solution...And that's only the models!

12 hour snow window for me, winds look right direction for at least some of the time, deepest FI

[Methuselah]

Here you go, peeps: something for snow-lovers to enjoy!

 

[winterof79]

52 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

It's worth noting that if the MJO is going to be as amplified as GFS suggests then this will delay a pressure rise over Scandinavia even more since phase 6-7 tend to build pressure west of us so looking for northerlies over easterlies is a strong bet.

If we do keep high amplitude into phase 8 and 1 though with a weak vortex then that is the time we'll party.

Which is what Stewart (GP) has mooted for a while i.e MJO amplified coupled with a SSW.

Really don't understand how some look for any possible reason that  it may not come together and must go through some big mood swings

It is the same every time we approach some super synoptics. There was a period pre 2009 when I could understand the downbeat posts but what could "never happen again" has regularly happened since then. 

[Chesil View]

5 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Which is what Stewart (GP) has mooted for a while i.e MJO amplified coupled with a SSW.

Really don't understand how some look for any possible reason that  it may not come together and must go through some big mood swings

It is the same every time we approach some super synoptics. There was a period pre 2009 when I could understand the downbeat posts but what could "never happen again" has regularly happened since then. 

Good post W79. Until GP tells us any different I'm more than happy await the developments that he has suggested. He has proved very reliable strat wise over the years.

[lassie23]

anyone found any cold yet

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

Clusters are back 

extended run wasn’t so great so no surprise to see the ridge with more traction around 25% 

of course we have no Idea re continuity on these which is an issue 

Yes good news to have them back at last, but not screaming cold except perhaps cluster 3

Cluster 1 also has just the suggestion of getting the trough to our east (as I speculated on yesterday), but cluster 2 is Bartlett like. No reason to get very excited yet on NWP alone. 

[karyo]

1 minute ago, lassie23 said:

anyone found any cold yet

More chance to catch a cold than find it! 

[Methuselah]

6 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

anyone found any cold yet

Nae, Lass - but I've both alluded to it and mooted it!

[Minnizi]

33 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

anyone found any cold yet

Only in the freezer. I'll keep hunting 

[swfc]

Icon looks good at 120 hrs 

[karyo]

3 minutes ago, swfc said:

Icon looks good at 120 hrs 

Yes, more amplified! The cold still too far to the east but another step in the right direction.

[Mike Poole]

I know it's a short run but ICON is looking like a stonker.  T156:

I wonder if this 12 suite will be the one that really starts showing the cold charts.  If the strat signals and other background signals are right, they should start showing in FI very soon.

[carinthian]

On ‎25‎/‎12‎/‎2018 at 07:43, carinthian said:

Thanks for all the likes everyone. Finally, arrived at Gatwick after a bit of a delay. Safely back in good old Sussex for a couple of days. You know, despite your mundane weather over in blighty , you still live in a great country, possible the best in the world. Your pubs are fantastic social hubs , now offering amazing choice of real ales. Your food in second to none. Roast beef and Yorkshire pudding served with gravy as thick as the soles of your shoes, proper bacon, thick crust white bread ( beats that Alpine bread , full of all sorts of nuts any day) Fish and chips with mushy peas , thick cut Oxford Marmalade jam and the list goes on and on. Oh , your Tv is amazing. Free health service is envoy of the world ! and great schools. To all on here enjoy the holiday and forget about those grim charts showing this morning, they will switch to joyous viewing in a matter of days ! Will send some updates from Canada.

Cheers,

C

Counting the time away waiting  for my flight on Friday from LHR-YVR. Must say the weather over Christmas has been depressing. Just watched the weather presentation on BBC by the very likeable Thomas Schafernaker ,he looked  totally fed up with the present bore fest. He could see no change until the New Year and suggested the mild weather will move into much of Central and Eastern Europe this week. Poor man , as I think he loves to present cold weather ! My daughter had a max of -10c in Sweden on Christmas Eve and now +3C with rain. High Pressure, cloud laden skies and 9c is just the worst scenario in deepest mid-winter . Anyway, think its pub time to lighten my mood. Hopefully, the crap weather will get kicked away by a powerful Arctic blast for you lot soon after New Year. By that time I will be too far away hunting the same cold in Pacific Canada !

 C