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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted (edited)

Notice the difference in pv  still the models continue to improve/change.

19D745ED-6402-465E-AAD1-A2C7BCEED823.png

573E9E5E-65B4-420C-A2A7-9E6B81390723.png

Edited by That ECM
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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
1 minute ago, Rapodo said:

Surely thats a qtr if I ever saw one? PV heading east. PV splitting?

You'll soon find out, if it is you'll see a stonking big Atlantic ridge trying to get up into Greenland in a minute.

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Duane S. Veteran

Duane S.

Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
Posted (edited)

If this is a trend, those GL heights, things are going to start looking very interstellar sooner than we might think.

I see your post above  @feb1991blizzard possibly alludes to the same.

And what the F. That was supposed to say ‘interesting’! Not sure where interstellar came from!?!

Edited by s4lancia
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BARRY Aficionado

BARRY

Posted
  • Location: frogmore south devon
  • Location: frogmore south devon
Posted
2 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

If this is a trend, those GL heights, things are going to start looking very interstellar sooner than we might think.

This hunt for cold is now starting to get interesting as the SSW begins to show it's hand 

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
2 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

If this is a trend, those GL heights, things are going to start looking very interstellar sooner than we might think.

I see your post above  @feb1991blizzard possibly alludes to the same.

And what the F. That was supposed to say ‘interesting’! Not sure where interstellar came from!?!

Its a good split being modelled now on the GFS, far cry from a few days ago, there's just one criticism, at 10mb, i would rather the contour lines be pointing North at 10mb or such a big area of high that the entire centre covered Greenland,

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johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted
14 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Quite the difference in the GL vicinity from the last 2 runs, raging PV on the 0z to dead on the 6z

A34A6553-60BF-4A01-90E8-69B33ED655C2.png

0E9C418A-69C5-46AB-A07C-4AE76972302E.png

So which is the most reliable then?

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Borei Aficionado

Borei

Posted
  • Location: East Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold.
  • Location: East Midlands
Posted
4 minutes ago, Rapodo said:

Wow! Here comes the heights!? This is a massive change!

What exactly are you seeing? 

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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted

The 06z does not do it for me, the wedges of heights mixing in the Greenland area just pushed the jet SE and we end up with cold zonal and suppressed Azores High, limiting any further wave development. The PV is a bit more ragged due to those wedges and of course, the Euro trough development will mean upstream (and less important downstream) changes, but too far east for the UK to be anything but zonal.

tempresult_bbu4.gif

 

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Borei said:

What exactly are you seeing? 

Actually the oz was better in fi in regard to ridging

Edited by swfc
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Paul_1978 Accomplished

Paul_1978

Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
Posted
2 minutes ago, IDO said:

The 06z does not do it for me, the wedges of heights mixing in the Greenland area just pushed the jet SE and we end up with cold zonal and suppressed Azores High, limiting any further wave development. The PV is a bit more ragged due to those wedges and of course, the Euro trough development will mean upstream (and less important downstream) changes, but too far east for the UK to be anything but zonal.

tempresult_bbu4.gif

 

You continue to surprise us IDO!

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snowfish1 Aficionado

snowfish1

Posted
  • Location: Hernia Bay
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow
  • Location: Hernia Bay
Posted

It's early days. People taking output as gospel again. Effects of the much spoken about ssw are still being factored in 

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

I'm seeing pretty-much the same as I saw yesterday: despite reading pages and pages of glorious 'upgrades', we are still no nearer a solution...And that's only the models!

image.thumb.png.54761ca1a465346a65b6f61b47757900.png

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Froze were the Days Accomplished

Froze were the Days

Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
Posted
1 minute ago, Fozfoster said:

image.thumb.png.2a22a273cc0b3567bb3632559d320fd1.png06zimage.thumb.png.5c3cacbf3277f601700187c53b3dd7cd.png00z

big difference here........it is at day 10 tho.....

and the Azores high STILL there although displaced somewhat, so I'm not seeing any great changes.

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DanDorsetUK Community Regular

DanDorsetUK

Posted
  • Location: Poole, BH14
  • Location: Poole, BH14
Posted

It's the trends since last night that look good on the gfs despite it ending flat and zonal but surely that's just the gfs bias. Clear signs that the ssw is starting to be seen here. And a couple of "potential' ridges appearing in fi. It's the changes in the 5 to 7 day range that is important. 

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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted
10 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

You continue to surprise us IDO!

Hi - it is what it is, rather underwhelming at the moment, but that zonal setup may bring transient snow to the favoured areas, so NW and west coast may see some wintry mix?

Not sure this is a QTR run (though not the main response) but if it is, then initially not great for the UK, though quite viable?

However, the op is not supported by the mean or control at D7, less progressive with the UK high sinking and delayed troughing, so that is good from my perspective.

Mean at D8 gens-21-1-192.thumb.png.0b43246b1fc5697d409af15fa9fee6ea.png

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Borei Aficionado

Borei

Posted
  • Location: East Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold.
  • Location: East Midlands
Posted

I've read pages and pages of hope-casting and analysis about how much better the output is, occasionally how it's now showing the down-welling effects of SSW, and why (although it's still fairly zonal) that's just because of model bias. 

Yet, on a rational basis, there are still very few signs of northern blocking. It's just not there on current output.

 

 

 

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DanDorsetUK Community Regular

DanDorsetUK

Posted
  • Location: Poole, BH14
  • Location: Poole, BH14
Posted

The 7th of January has always been the turning point in my opinion we are still 13 days away and 5 days left of December. The fact we are seeing changes this early can surely only be a good thing with an attempt at a possible qtr being modelled by the gfs. I'm far more optimistic of a better outcome by mid January and much more optimistic that we will start to see some eye candy runs in the next few days. 

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chris55 Accomplished

chris55

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
Posted

We look to have a window of opportunity to get some sort of a block in place around 120-144, the models are toying with some WAA west of Greenland building a high ahead and if we are lucky our resident high may link up and build a more meaningful block.

This is the timescale to be watching IMO. It may come to nothing but worth watching.

Looks more of an isolated tropospheric response than anything linked to the potential SSW at this stage IMO.

 

2AC91BBC-7A34-4F4D-957D-E9F0874F0A54.thumb.png.a8beaa330ee2656bd564f419c268742f.png500AD7C4-1DDA-48D5-8A18-137BB67A9028.thumb.png.94849f2735f751bde89ada0f584da8f0.png

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Sky Full Accomplished

Sky Full

Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
Posted

In our 'hunt for cold' it's a bit disheartening to see that the entire UK currently enjoys the highest surface level temperatures anywhere in the world above the 50th parallel.....

image.thumb.png.62cb593549a9470890a71bcc554c0292.png

...by some margin!

We have the highest hill to climb of any country in the northern hemisphere when it comes to experiencing cold weather in the winter so it's no wonder we all get excited when there's any prospect of snow.  Let's hope we all get what we wish for in the New Year!

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

GEFS zonal wind today, reversal on the turn of the year now.  By the end of the run just 3 members back in positive territory, the lowest -21 m/s.

image.thumb.jpg.393110d21c40371f2608fe9df05839cf.jpg

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Johnp Accomplished

Johnp

Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Popular Post
Posted
20 minutes ago, Borei said:

I've read pages and pages of hope-casting and analysis about how much better the output is, occasionally how it's now showing the down-welling effects of SSW, and why (although it's still fairly zonal) that's just because of model bias. 

Yet, on a rational basis, there are still very few signs of northern blocking. It's just not there on current output.

 

 

 

Whenever people use the phrase hopecasting, I tend to stop reading the rest of the post.

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