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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Isle of Lewis
  • Weather Preferences: Sun in summer, snow in winter, wind in Autumn and rainbows in the spring!
  • Location: Isle of Lewis

Subtle changes in the 18z. Event time 138hrs.. The models are beginning to make the adjustments.  That high looks less of a blocking feature. Could slip SW and let the North  flood gates wide open . 

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Up she goes! This could be a great run.:drunk:

gfseu-0-180.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Spot the difference at T192 compared to the 12z.

gfseu-0-192.png

gfseu-0-198.png

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Posted
  • Location: Hernia Bay
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow
  • Location: Hernia Bay

 Merry Christmas to everyone on here. Hopefully within the next days or so something will start to appear in the output.  Hope springs eternal. 

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Posted
  • Location: Poole, BH14
  • Location: Poole, BH14

Dam it was all going so well heights look to be collapsing but it's still a small step the right way. Let's see where this goes. Big difference to the polar vortex here too!

Edited by Rapodo
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Posted
  • Location: Isle of Lewis
  • Weather Preferences: Sun in summer, snow in winter, wind in Autumn and rainbows in the spring!
  • Location: Isle of Lewis

Classic omega block developing on that run. The models are sniffing at something. 

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

This is looking more and more like the likely outcome, a cold NWly, snow for some particularly in the west no doubt. Could be an ok pattern, reminds me of December 1981, never know..

gfseu-0-300.png

gfseu-1-300.png

gfseu-2-300.png

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Posted
  • Location: Isle of Lewis
  • Weather Preferences: Sun in summer, snow in winter, wind in Autumn and rainbows in the spring!
  • Location: Isle of Lewis

Most likely scenario.. 

Nly before the Easterly!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Oh dear.....

gfsnh-0-384.png

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Posted
  • Location: Poole, BH14
  • Location: Poole, BH14
2 minutes ago, snowray said:

Oh dear.....

gfsnh-0-384.png

Regroups could happen but going by all the background signals I don't think it's likely! Feel progress was made tonight and a small but brief sniff of the coffee!

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Posted
  • Location: Isle of Lewis
  • Weather Preferences: Sun in summer, snow in winter, wind in Autumn and rainbows in the spring!
  • Location: Isle of Lewis
2 minutes ago, evans1892 said:

And it ends on the same note. Shame.

Ive seen the GFS do this so many times before the Effects the a SsW takes place, goes back to manufacturing reset state in FL. 

Fear not. 

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
2 minutes ago, Ladyofthestorm said:

Ive seen the GFS do this so many times before the Effects the a SsW takes place, goes back to manufacturing reset state in FL. 

Fear not. 

Yes lets wait and see what the ensembles look like before jumping to any conclusions.

Oh dear, JMA is pretty much yuk too.

JN264-21.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Poole, BH14
  • Location: Poole, BH14

Watching the gfs it was far to progressive with the breakdown! Clearly smelt the coffee panicked and couldn't cope and reset to default. Can't be discounted but highly unlikely to regroup as fast as it did. Fully expecting to see big changes in the next 48hrs. If anything that was a clear indication the gfs is starting to see the developments. 

Edited by Rapodo
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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

There's posisbly an excessive feedback from the faster zonal winds descending ahead of the reversal... not sure but I think I came across that in a doc somewhere that discussed different model biases. What should be a brief uptick gets made far too lengthy.

Great progress with the non-ECM strat evolutions today. Almost at the point where we can at last rest easy on getting a wide and prolonged enough split to aid development of the HLB we seek by 8-14 days into Jan (on top of whatever the tropical forcing achieves beforehand).

 

Hopefully that feedback error rings true - I’m optimistic as the extent of neg AO development doesn’t fit historical precedent, and like Ladyofthestorm I’ve seen the models behave in similar ways during the other spit SSWs of the past dozen years.

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