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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

When we had the fun and games earlier in the year, ecm was the one that stood alone but was more correct than the rest. Really liking the 216 on this run

 

edit and t240 is very good shame it stopped there as next frames would have been great viewing.

Edited by That ECM
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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
49 minutes ago, fromey said:

Make of this what you will

clear as mud!

EFED4308-86DA-4A3A-9BED-EB05865D1661.jpeg

These are based on the GEFS.  Pinch of salt required....

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

The first boom chart from the stratospheric campaign...

2516C1D7-6B2E-4B7B-9A38-6B4E3EF310E6.thumb.png.bc349da4df82e29fd1b35ad2a4cdb84f.png

Fantastic chart, surely that would end up extremely cold a 1/2 days on. 

Merry Crimbo ECM, I’ll be pleasantly surprised if not a cold outlier 

 

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

Now if we can get anywhere near that 240z chart then some fun and games could start - a big 'if' though...

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Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
2 minutes ago, mulzy said:

These are based on the GEFS.  Pinch of salt required....

Yeah, that’s why I put “clear as mud” 

not a scooby doo

 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

The 06Z GEFS 850 temp ensemble...11 members ending with negative numbers...Looks like clear trend to me!:santa-emoji:

image.thumb.png.3fe1728b7c7e37619c7c3a6cde1e1714.png

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Posted
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
  • Weather Preferences: Storms frost snow heatwaves
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.

Ecm 240 chart is a thing of sheer beauty..best stocking filler of the day :yahoo:

Edited by Newberryone
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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
22 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Could be good. Could be very good! But is it the real thing? Or is it just another of those irritating FI 'starting to smell the coffee' charts we've seen so many of, this past month? I'm keeping an open mind for the time-being, but based on countless previous episodes, I know where my money'll be going!

image.thumb.png.a4883c917113030192ab0e4e1764a45c.png

Looks very good to me, if we get the SSW response its got to start somewhere, early better than late.:cold:

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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl

Need to start seeing some consistency now though as atm it’s still just one run, maybe things will start to firm up on it and maybe even start getting some upgrades etc.

back to the drinks I go

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Excellent EC det-

Bye bye Atlantic ..

We have reached the bottom of the barrel, from now onwards and forwards to the good stuff, let the upgrades begin. I think that our jaws will drop in amazement at how quickly things can turn around when we have a high centred over the UK and the trop playing ball. 

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

This would do me nicely. Thanks for the Xmas eye candy ECM. Pity though its been so inconsistent lately so absolutely for fun at the moment. 

ECM0-240 (2).gif

ECM1-240 (2).gif

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
2 hours ago, Raythan said:

Shouldn’t be too far off some GFS eye candy charts , given the GFS MJO forecast takes it nearly off the scale , it’s had a good day on the mulled wine ! 

8283A51F-8EED-41DE-8C91-DF1555F9E03D.jpeg

Now this absolutely shows me something has got to give high amplitude phase 7 primed for northwest block once the largest part of the vortex has departed over to our side of the pond.

Also noticed since the Prozac moment of yesterday that deep plunge of deep cold is creeping ever further west with cold with in touching distance.

Although not all models agree alot just keep the massive deflated but strong heights over the uk.

Fingers crossed the mjo is on the money best mjo signal I've seen for a long time.

I'm going to do ed stone prayer that will surely work.

I'm going to have good old research day tomorrow see if I can dig up any more great information.

maybe by then the charts will start showing some really exciting charts.

Amen

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Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
1 hour ago, Roger J Smith said:

Perhaps our strategy should be to start a "hunt for mild" thread and perhaps the models will respond by crushing those dreams. Merry Christmas. 

There’s a few on here already doing that! 

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire

Evening just caught up and Oh yes ECM . Is this the start of are chase ? Let’s hope we keep it going .

EE4557D1-2166-4DA7-9B78-D9D9CB493DCF.png

BAA7E0AE-E0B1-4AC3-AACB-103D0F9B36EE.png

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