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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND

Merry Xmas everyone! Any one like to say when the models will show the effect of the ssw in the output! Not in fI please! No pressure 

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
19 minutes ago, snowice said:

Merry Xmas everyone! Any one like to say when the models will show the effect of the ssw in the output! Not in fI please! No pressure 

by about mid Jan so nothing in the output until about new years day. So keep the faith one more week

 

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
20 minutes ago, snowice said:

Merry Xmas everyone! Any one like to say when the models will show the effect of the ssw in the output! Not in fI please! No pressure 

Oh, Oh, Oh..... No! Don't make me laugh snowice, oh I know, let me consult my crystal ball.:oldlaugh:

 

Happy Christmas!

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2 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Great name, love Breaking Bad!!!..amongst the dross there are some good signs from the models, .chins up fellow coldies!..SSW..SSW..SSW..please deliver!!!

Let's hope we have a different type of 'ice' to look forward to in the New Year

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

Not without interest. The high trying to edge nw? The nh profile offering an opportunity imo

01A6BB00-EE73-4FD4-86EC-5E769BEBD082.png

Edited by That ECM
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

When you say looking good for Jan..looking at the models it looks pretty cr*p well into Jan but the longer term signal ( from Exeter) is POTENTIALLY still very good which I assume is what you meant!

How can they be cr*p well into jan when they currently only go to 9th jan at the furthest end of fi ??

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Evolution of the whole GEFS suite continues to be fascinating, the wind reversal it had nailed for a whole week now fails, but replaced by a second more significant warming a few days later, zonal wind charts:

image.thumb.jpg.541c761d58a6c7f66029e84e7b5deb3c.jpg

My money on ECM!  GFS and ensembles have either been flailing or on wrong track altogether it would seem.

Merry Christmas everyone - mine a little off kilter as due to car trouble, I'm not where I'm supposed to be!   Have a good one folks! 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Evolution of the whole GEFS suite continues to be fascinating, the wind reversal it had nailed for a whole week now fails, but replaced by a second more significant warming a few days later, zonal wind charts:

image.thumb.jpg.541c761d58a6c7f66029e84e7b5deb3c.jpg

My money on ECM!  GFS and ensembles have either been flailing or on wrong track altogether it would seem.

Merry Christmas everyone - mine a little off kilter as due to car trouble, I'm not where I'm supposed to be!   Have a good one folks! 

Zonal winds going to drop away now and like i say, thats never a bad sign moving forward !

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

Phrase: Model Fatigue

Definition: When you're eating your christmas dinner and suddenly think "Hmm, classic Omega block there with signs of a cross-polar flow and huge undercut....If I don't finish my dinner by T30+ minutes it will be bitterly cold......I'll fetch me coat!

 

20181225_154706.thumb.jpg.5d28c562b3de5e915a7ad8cf498e4036.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
19 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Good start to the 12z for the icon 168-180..

 

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

How can they be cr*p well into jan when they currently only go to 9th jan at the furthest end of fi ??

I guess that out to the 10th Jan, not 9th is pretty much well into Jan though Blue. I must say that I much prefer the high over us than the Atlantic though, and expecting lots of nice runs for coldies in the next few days.:oldsmile:

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Zonal winds going to drop away now and like i say, thats never a bad sign moving forward !

I think a displacement of the vortex as our starter, and then the SSW 2nd wave will give us the split, all good stuff..... happy day!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

Another step forward from the gfs wrt to the nh profile. 

D29DED49-7C7C-4081-A01A-2DCCBD63C83E.png

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Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
13 minutes ago, beerandkebab said:

Phrase: Model Fatigue

Definition: When you're eating your christmas dinner and suddenly think "Hmm, classic Omega block there with signs of a cross-polar flow and huge undercut....If I don't finish my dinner by T30+ minutes it will be bitterly cold......I'll fetch me coat!

 

20181225_154706.thumb.jpg.5d28c562b3de5e915a7ad8cf498e4036.jpg

Where all the meat gone ,happy Christmas all .

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
1 minute ago, legritter said:

Where all the meat gone ,happy Christmas all .

it was absorbed into the omega block

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

This is the best hunt for cold chart yet. Probably sums up winter rather well in the end

 

 

sodall.png

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

Let's call it a lack of data, as we do not want the GFS 12z to trend, an awful run, in fact, no nascent respect to the "background signals" reverting to an undisturbed upstream as we head towards D10, bringing no late Christmas gifts to thee faithful.

Compare 12z to 6z:

gfsnh-0-312.thumb.png.30dda660e0cc700cd9b5489ce59016d4.pnggfsnh-0-324.thumb.png.08be00534ec53d0207c0f970794a5bc6.png

I would say that FI is aptly named if we look at these 6h changes, but I have noted the 6z seems to be challenging the 18z for more robust blocking of late, but in the season of goodwill, maybe after D10 we should be questioning the data assimilation here, as the alternative should remain unspoken!

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
36 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Another step forward from the gfs wrt to the nh profile. 

D29DED49-7C7C-4081-A01A-2DCCBD63C83E.png

It never fails to amaze me how consistent charts are when they are CRAP!:fool:

Edited by snowray
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
2 minutes ago, snowray said:

It never fails to amaze me how consistent charts are when they are CRAP!:fool:

Or just how often charts like this one (screaming potential) appear on Day 16!

image.thumb.png.ed99ca78477c449e1e571283f929340a.png

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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
4 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Could this be THE ONE? The cusp? The start of a truly memorable winter? Are the models at last starting to smell the coffee? Are the building blocks...?

image.thumb.png.479f52e69e069f7340b55251c0f36907.png

1

nope

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
11 minutes ago, snowray said:

It never fails to amaze me how consistent charts are when they are CRAP!

There is no consistency over the last two gfs runs. 12z better upto t144 then dreadful there after.  A better mean at t168 tho. So I doubt the op will sit within the main suite of gefs. 

C5021139-F498-4545-B2E5-29C2D515FEE9.png

Edited by That ECM
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Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
3 minutes ago, That ECM said:

There is no consistency over the last two gfs runs. 12z better upto t144 then dreadful there after. 

To be fair, they have been consistently crap for some time now

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Posted
  • Location: North East
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder , Lightning , Snow , Blizzards
  • Location: North East

Shouldn’t be too far off some GFS eye candy charts , given the GFS MJO forecast takes it nearly off the scale , it’s had a good day on the mulled wine ! 

8283A51F-8EED-41DE-8C91-DF1555F9E03D.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
3 minutes ago, KTtom said:

To be fair, they have been consistently crap for some time now

Again I disagree. The nh profile has improved in the main, not this 12z gfs, But hey ho it’s all about opinions

Edited by That ECM
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