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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Christmas ECM ensembles update - by 9th Jan, a slight increase in the members with NW blocking, but the Icelandic low remains the favorite. 

For those hoping for seasonal snow, you will need something like this 

https://www.amazon.co.uk/beamz-Christmas-Winter-Blizzard-Machine/dp/B01MTN6GNQ?ref_=fsclp_pl_dp_2

Merry Christmas everyone! 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, Banbury said:

That's Brian's take on it , not seen what Retron comes up with , worth seeing opinion and yours is very much duly noted 

Correct Banbury, i didn't want to name anyone but you blew his cover lol..

PS I think i would favor Blues interpretation every day of the week !

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
12 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Christmas ECM ensembles update - by 9th Jan, a slight increase in the members with NW blocking, but the Icelandic low remains the favorite. 

For those hoping for seasonal snow, you will need something like this 

https://www.amazon.co.uk/beamz-Christmas-Winter-Blizzard-Machine/dp/B01MTN6GNQ?ref_=fsclp_pl_dp_2

Merry Christmas everyone! 

Shame we have lost the clusters ...... always good to see what percentage support an amplified end week two solution approaching a reversal 

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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
3 hours ago, Blake Allen said:

Well... if you're spending Christmas in eastern Latvia, as I am, you'd have this outside your window.

Currently -5.5c here in Berzpils.

2 Christmasses in a row plus Easter both giving me a few inches to play with - currently a foot of snow in places. Although, not good for balls, or snowmen, as the snow is very dry.

Here until 1st Jan... expecting 2 more periods of snow at least before then.

I do feel that before the weekend we will have something to cheer about with charts showing us some promise for parts of the UK. So long as there is no disruption between 17th and 21st Jan as coming back here for a 50th birthday.

Although as we know SSW's do not guarantee snow or cold, I remain hopeful of it.

Few models showing cold filtering south across eastern Europe towards Greece/Turkey from 2nd/3rd/4th... but little promise that heights can build to the north as of yet.

Enjoy your Christmas day one and all. Off to peel and score my sprouts as I am giving my hosts a traditional British Christmas dinner! 

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Nothing marginal about that snow merry christmas

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Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester
11 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Had 2 pop in quickly..

Cut your windows now..we seem 2 have local responces..

Via-bigger ramifications! .

The notions are, being guided and formated....

Response's being noted via raws now...winter is coming...

Keep safe..happy and merry..

@ssw.

.@layermelting

 

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 Boiled or sautee?

 

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Posted
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Snow & Snow.
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄

CHRISTMAS BALLOON DATA ISSUE!

 

Just checked outside my window , I don't think balloon data issue should be a problem this Christmas

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Edited by The BEAST From The East
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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

Strat. charts have improved this morning. MJO pushing through phase 6 (heading towards phase 7/8 i.e. Atlantic HLB) and EC46, though very slightly less favourabe is very prone to wobbles - to say the least! The EC46 is still damned good folks!

Have a fantastic Christmas day all

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Posted
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
  • Weather Preferences: Storms frost snow heatwaves
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
4 hours ago, Frosty. said:

The models are currently vile...but, after a few drinks perhaps they won't look so bad!..happy crimbo:drunk-emoji::reindeer-emoji::santa-emoji:

Keep the faith Frosty, for something tells me you may have reason before long to inundate this forum with a certain emoji that I know holds very special appeal let alone significance..:cold:

 

Edited by Newberryone
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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs

64252ACF-974E-47A3-A30C-6DC3B791B423.thumb.jpeg.49b51d00ca03474eca2892138b503728.jpeg

Merry Christmas all ❄️☃️

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Could this be THE ONE? The cusp? The start of a truly memorable winter? Are the models at last starting to smell the coffee? Are the building blocks...?

image.thumb.png.479f52e69e069f7340b55251c0f36907.png

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

A very pleasing Christmas present in the form of the 06z run. 

Merry Christmas to every one of you! Have a wonderful day 

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Could this be THE ONE? The cusp? The start of a truly memorable winter? Are the models at last starting to smell the coffee? Are the building blocks...?

image.thumb.png.479f52e69e069f7340b55251c0f36907.png

I couldn’t agree more......❄️:santa-emoji::cold:

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Could this be the start of our Christmas present from the models I wonder, right out in FI but maybe, just maybe Santa hasn't forgotten us, more Christmas presents later on, pretty please!

 

Happy Christmas everyone, I wish you all a fantastic day and holidays, if only the people of the world could get along as well as we do on here....most of the time anyway!

 

:santa-emoji::santa-emoji::santa-emoji::santa-emoji:

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
1 hour ago, Heisenberg said:

morning all, Merry Christmas. It has been a long time since I have signed in to my account, but I had the feeling we might be on the cusp of something here. Am I wrong? Looking at the posts from yesterday, the models seem to have slipped again? When do we think the SSW might impact our weather? Are the models latching onto this now? 

I heard the 7th Jan might be the turning point? 

Great name, love Breaking Bad!!!..amongst the dross there are some good signs from the models, .chins up fellow coldies!..SSW..SSW..SSW..please deliver!!!:santa-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
26 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Could this be THE ONE? The cusp? The start of a truly memorable winter? Are the models at last starting to smell the coffee? Are the building blocks...?

image.thumb.png.479f52e69e069f7340b55251c0f36907.png

That's a beautiful chart I would marry it.

ifI knew it was going to last lol.

Or will it divorce before it's even started lol.

Merry Christmas ed.

And merry Christmas to all that contribute to this forum it's been a memorable year so far.

Hopefully more to come.

Spare a thought for those less fortunate I'm not religious but I'm human and humane treatment is what we are ment to stand for.

much love.

Many thanks netweather and all those involved.

Merry Christmas 

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

The trend is your friend

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?ext=1&x=263&y=34

 

 

 

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Edited by winterof79
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Posted
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

Indeed.

Mean down to -4c in far FI for Gods county.

Although the drop looks more impressive as the mean is running around 5c for the next week or so.

t850North~Yorkshire.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The potential wintry signal is still indicated from mid jan, I will put up with all the  dross the models show before then if it means a wintry 2nd half of January!!..merry Christmas folks.:santa-emoji: .repeat after me .SSW..SSW..SSW..SSW..SSW:drunk-emoji:

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
6 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The wintry signal is still going strong from mid jan, I will put up with all the  dross the models show before then if it means a wintry 2nd half of January!!..merry Christmas folks.:santa-emoji: 

I’m with ya Frosty..... :santa-emoji:

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Just a little Christmas humour ⛄

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Posted
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales, thunderstorms, snow
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire

I don’t post much in here but I have been following the MT for years. This forum has lots of knowledgeable people when it comes to the weather models and their information and thoughts on them are much appreciated. Keep up the good work guys!

Hopefully the SSW delivers as we head into January. I want to see this forum crash as it did last winter with everyone posting knee deep snow pics.

Merry Christmas everyone, have a great day! :santa-emoji:  

 

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

I don't want to wish Christmas day away..... far from it, having a lovely day here, none the less just to say that my thoughts are with those who have not had such a good year, nor Christmas Day....

 

.....But....... it's not long now to the 12z runs that I am impatiently awaiting on this most festive of days:drunk-emoji:, and may they be merry and bright for us committed coldies!:cold-emoji::cold:

(PS...Winter coldies mind)

Edited by snowray
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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Good to see the HP Sat over us for a while. No snowfields to produce serious minima as we enter Jan, but the set up is primed for a prolonged surge of deep cold as we go throughout January.  So a minor setback but no general change.....looking good for Jan STILL!!! Merry Xmas ALL

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
6 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

looking good for Jan 

 

BFTP

When you say looking good for Jan..looking at the models it looks pretty cr*p well into Jan but the longer term signal ( from Exeter) is POTENTIALLY still very good which I assume is what you meant!:santa-emoji:

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

Great name, love Breaking Bad!!!..amongst the dross there are some good signs from the models, .chins up fellow coldies!..SSW..SSW..SSW..please deliver!!!:santa-emoji:

I nearly changed my username to Heisenberg, but I was tortured by all the uncertainty...:help:

And a thought for the day:

Our father who art in Heaven, hallowed be thy name...give us this day our daily snow, and let the East Wind blow...forgive Darren Betts for all his sins, and see the North Wind wins...For ever and ever. Amen...??

 

Edited by Ed Stone
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