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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I think its surely more of a lack of flight data isn't it?

Merry Christmas feb. I'd never thought of that .. have a good one:drunk-emoji:❄️

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, sorepaw1 said:

Merry Christmas feb. I'd never thought of that .. have a good one:drunk-emoji:❄️

And you and evryone else as well.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

Happy Xmas - you couldn’t be more wrong imo .....

strat split modelling up a notch today

eps extended have lost that dodgy signal from yesterday and now look like they head fairly seamlessly into the ec46 ....also fits broadly with the gefs and geps.  Scandi trough backing wsw 

lets hope the trough is cold enough to deliver but I still don’t think this modelling takes into account any downwelling wave due post 8th/9th month .......

Excellent news,

Have you been able to access EC 46?

Knocker seems to have .. doesn't sound like rampant northern blocking..

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Met Office issues yellow warning of 'Widespread Potential' from Day 16!:santa-emoji:

image.thumb.png.a1e7e0da762d3ce19eccf7764590dca0.png

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

Happy Xmas - you couldn’t be more wrong imo .....

strat split modelling up a notch today

eps extended have lost that dodgy signal from yesterday and now look like they head fairly seamlessly into the ec46 ....also fits broadly with the gefs and geps.  Scandi trough backing wsw 

lets hope the trough is cold enough to deliver but I still don’t think this modelling takes into account any downwelling wave due post 8th/9th month .......

Merry Christmas everybody 

 

And to add yesterday GEOS backed down from a SSW but today shows a split by 135h

 

geosnh-7-135.png?25-10

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Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

And you and evryone else as well.

Its my birthday today too" sorepaw is 42 today born in December 1976 during a raging Blizzard ' my dad just got to the hospital in time in a ford cortina.

Its my parent's fault I'm a massive coldie

My dad should of used GFS 12hr to plan his journey better ❄️:drunk-emoji:

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl

Had to have a quick look in here to see whether there was any white stuff about.  I saw that you've managed to fill 94 pages in nine days!  That's, erm, over 10 pages a day, right?  I thought we must be in for snowmaggedon but no, it's mild mush as far the eye can see.  What on earth is it going to be like in here if we get a blizzard showing in the models within the 96 hour range?  FABULOUS!  That's what!!

Happy Christmas to everyone in here, especially the know-nothings like me who rely on the regulars for all our weather related news.  Keep yer spirits up - we're bound to get some real winter weather before March and it'll all be worth waiting for when it arrives.  

:ball-santa-emoji::cold-emoji::drunk-emoji::santa-emoji::snowman-emoji::reindeer-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Excellent news,

Have you been able to access EC 46?

Knocker seems to have .. doesn't sound like rampant northern blocking..

I’m ok with it .... seems to have a further transition from the backing ssw of the scandi trough to the griceland  blocking post 21st which could well mean cold zonal for a week but I dont believe that takes into account enough the likely downwelling wave from the ssw which will impact at the same time (roughly 10th to 20th). In addition, Let’s not forget the possibility of a qtr as per the 06z. 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, sorepaw1 said:

Its my birthday today too" sorepaw is 42 today born in December 1976 during a raging Blizzard ' my dad just got to the hospital in time in a ford cortina.

Its my parent's fault I'm a massive coldie

My dad should of used GFS 12hr to plan his journey better ❄️:drunk-emoji:

 

 

77 jan me, cold wintry weather as well.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
1 minute ago, Sky Full said:

Had to have a quick look in here to see whether there was any white stuff about.  I saw that you've managed to fill 94 pages in nine days!  That's, erm, over 10 pages a day, right?  I thought we must be in for snowmaggedon but no, it's mild mush as far the eye can see.  What on earth is it going to be like in here if we get a blizzard showing in the models within the 96 hour range?  FABULOUS!  That's what!!

Happy Christmas to everyone in here, especially the know-nothings like me who rely on the regulars for all our weather related news.  Keep yer spirits up - we're bound to get some real winter weather before March and it'll all be worth waiting for when it arrives.  

:ball-santa-emoji::cold-emoji::drunk-emoji::santa-emoji::snowman-emoji::reindeer-emoji:

Either your eyesight needs checking or you’re looking the wrong way ! 

Of course, if you limit your vista to ten days then that’s fine, but it’s not the end of the modelling .......

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Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill

Very last frame of the 6Z, but it's Xmas today, a magical day, so maybe if we all wish hard enough... 

1799666444_gfsnh-0-384(2).thumb.png.f4fcadb41769e91274ec500d9179f25c.png

Irrespective of models, snow etc, Merry Xmas to all of you (even the mild rampers, lol). 

:reindeer-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Either your eyesight needs checking or you’re looking the wrong way ! 

Of course, if you limit your vista to ten days then that’s fine, but it’s not the end of the modelling .......

I definitely should have gone to Specsavers.....

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Well i said a little prayer to the weather gods  at mass this morning and lo and behold 6z brings the goods, God works in mysterious ways

On a serious note splendid news to hear EC 46 has not caved in so i would guess Exeter will remain on page for mid Jan..

PS TWO  suggesting EC 46 delays any cold until Feb?

Apart from a small -anomaly for Scotland/NI,, thats sounding like cold zonality to me and could provide excellent weather for hilly NW Britain.

 

 

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Live Hatfield Herts / Work - In the City
  • Weather Preferences: Anything extreme aside from heat. Pref cold and snow
  • Location: Live Hatfield Herts / Work - In the City

morning all, Merry Christmas. It has been a long time since I have signed in to my account, but I had the feeling we might be on the cusp of something here. Am I wrong? Looking at the posts from yesterday, the models seem to have slipped again? When do we think the SSW might impact our weather? Are the models latching onto this now? 

I heard the 7th Jan might be the turning point? 

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
24 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Happy xmas team !

GFS - Split day 7 ( remember the steer to say Euro was correct )

220DA989-8F85-45F3-9F5D-08F5A33179F2.thumb.png.43e483519eb16b8010a4a75ebd08d011.png

Tropospheric response day 13 in exactly the right place

F70F84EE-2095-42B7-AF3D-28332B1594A0.thumb.png.55655586d41666224d17d7866e43c421.png

 

F70F84EE-2095-42B7-AF3D-28332B1594A0.png

Nice one Steve. Great to see the battery fully charged!

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well i said a little prayer to the weather gods  at mass this morning and lo and behold 6z brings the goods, God works in mysterious ways

On a serious note splendid news to hear EC 46 has not caved in so i would guess Exeter will remain on page for mid Jan..

PS TWO  suggesting EC 46 delays any cold until Feb?

Apart from a small -anomaly for Scotland/NI,, thats sounding like cold zonality to me and could provide excellent weather for hilly NW Britain.

 

 

Rubbish .....unless they mean ‘63 levels of cold !

it true that it trends colder the further it runs but to say that’s limited to feb is plain wrong 

I believe that Exeter’s comments re mid month cold etc is based on covering first standard downwelling wave from the ssw rather than any specific modelling 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
1 minute ago, Banbury said:

A thought

Maybe this HP sat over us for the next 10 days or so is the blocking ??? And its just ended it an unlucky position for the UK

 

It’s mid lat Marcus ..... and your definition of unlucky will depend on what follows and whether it’s placement was good for trop wave forcing up into the strat ......

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, bluearmy said:

Rubbish .....unless they mean ‘63 levels of cold !

it true that it trends colder the further it runs but to say that’s limited to feb is plain wrong 

I believe that Exeter’s comments re mid month cold etc is based on covering first standard downwelling wave from the ssw rather than any specific modelling 

:-)

I know whose opinion i would give more weight to

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Had 2 pop in quickly..

Cut your windows now..we seem 2 have local responces..

Via-bigger ramifications! .

The notions are, being guided and formated....

Response's being noted via raws now...winter is coming...

Keep safe..happy and merry..

@ssw.

.@layermelting

 

MT8_London_ens (2).png

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

It’s mid lat Marcus ..... and your definition of unlucky will depend on what follows and whether it’s placement was good for trop wave forcing up into the strat ...…

Fair shout mate ……….I'm all for severe as you know , when the carrot is dangled you are just desperate to get to it 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Rubbish .....unless they mean ‘63 levels of cold !

it true that it trends colder the further it runs but to say that’s limited to feb is plain wrong 

I believe that Exeter’s comments re mid month cold etc is based on covering first standard downwelling wave from the ssw rather than any specific modelling 

That's Brian's take on it , not seen what Retron comes up with , worth seeing opinion and yours is very much duly noted 

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