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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Snow & Snow.
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄

Merry Christmas to all you weather, snow chasing guys and girls ...

Have a great Christmas and eat and drink and enjoy your time with your family and friends. 

Great to see TEITS back... must be a good sign.  

Lets hope these are the scenes we see later as we head into January ❄?

20181225_091330.png

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
26 minutes ago, sorepaw1 said:

MERRY CHRISTMAS. 

I've lost a £10 bet on a white Christmas 

I placed the bet after looking at the 12z on the 14th of December .

Rotten models 

Thats the last time i take any notice of the T384hr 

I lost a tenner too. Placed it on in mid November when the teleconnections were showing 'potential'.

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

I wouldn't bet on a white Xmas if a raging blizzard was forecast 24 hours out knowing our luck with snow and cold in this country 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
15 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

It a shame the model output is so poor, but don’t forget the lack of balloon data over Christmas

I think its surely more of a lack of flight data isn't it?

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Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.

Seasons Greetings Netweathers!

Enjoy the murk....!

29.thumb.jpg.a95513069440eeb29b6c47e458dd17b2.jpg

 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Happy Xmas - you couldn’t be more wrong imo .....

strat split modelling up a notch today

eps extended have lost that dodgy signal from yesterday and now look like they head fairly seamlessly into the ec46 ....also fits broadly with the gefs and geps.  Scandi trough backing wsw 

lets hope the trough is cold enough to deliver but I still don’t think this modelling takes into account any downwelling wave due post 8th/9th month .......

Is the E446 actually any good though? i have seen Knockers post and although seems cold, there seems to be some subtle downgrading going on now.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl

Merry Christmas to all my fellow snaw freaks hope you all have a lovely day and don’t eat and drink too much. 

I said I wouldn’t come on here Christmas Day and here I am looking at poo charts again.

cant wait for all that Boxing Day footy tomorrow.

maybe the models will start to improve after Christmas when they get all the data back

everyone 

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Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire

No we can’t keep away from here even on Christmas Day. It’s too addictive. Hopefully something to cheer about soon in the models but plenty of distractions for today to keep me away from here, but I know I’ll be here throughout the day anyway. 

Merry Christmas :santa-emoji: 

Edited by matt111
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

I do like the strat charts on the 0z, 30mb GFS is the one that struck me, almost trying to split into a 3 wave pattern, the hyper critical would say you would like the 3 vortices to be equally sharing the energy but that would be knit picking.

https://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/strat.php?run=2018122500&var=HGT&lev=30mb&hour=384

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
42 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Happy Xmas - you couldn’t be more wrong imo .....

strat split modelling up a notch today

eps extended have lost that dodgy signal from yesterday and now look like they head fairly seamlessly into the ec46 ....also fits broadly with the gefs and geps.  Scandi trough backing wsw 

lets hope the trough is cold enough to deliver but I still don’t think this modelling takes into account any downwelling wave due post 8th/9th month .......

Thanks blue great post as always my friend.

Happy Xmas to you to fella thanks for your input.

Have a good one.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
11 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

Could the High 1037 over Biscay drift NW merging into High 1026 mid Atlantic and then retrogress towards Greenland?

Fax 25 Dec 2018.png

That would be good if it happened...Meanwhile, I wish I hadn't test-driven my old Delorean, last night!

image.thumb.png.7818e08699d1f94408a9bdaa23c2f8f4.png

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Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge

Happy Xmas you lot. A pleasure to be on here. Charts looking up today and the sun has appeared in tenerife! Happy days 

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

This theme has been showing on and off for awhile now. Imo when the cold comes this will not be far away. Have a good Christmas one and all.

A4DD967A-3D9E-452F-930B-80196145478B.png

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Posted
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland

Happy Chrim everyone, I hope santy brought you a delightful enough gift to distract you for a least half an hour from the emotionally damaging start forecasts and grinchy model outputs.   

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
3 minutes ago, minus86BriJ said:

Happy Chrim everyone, I hope santy brought you a delightful enough gift to distract you for a least half an hour from the emotionally damaging start forecasts and grinchy model outputs.   

Lets hope this is the start of some magnificent weather!!!

image.thumb.png.c343176804fdd50e2e86626850cc2575.png

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

merry xmas all i think the gfs  been on the sherry  in fantasy world

gfs-2-384.png

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