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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Ok,you can see it here,had to make a direct link.

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/6226/tempresult_kcd7.gif

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL

Hope the models cheer us up soon, after all we've got until April at least for snow to fall .

Anyway, we've got to have faith that into the New Year our fortunes improve. I myself still hold hope based on the fact we had a Winter last year which was quite productive for cold and snow and been as a lot of Winters with cold and snowy spells come in clusters, this is still one reason to be optimistic, along with the fact we're heading into solar minimum gives me hope that the weeks and months ahead could turn up a memorable period, not forgetting the historical period which is most conducive to cold and snow in this tiny corner of the world is still before us.

Anyway on another note tonight must obviously be reasonably cold, or at least ground frost temperature territory here at least, as when out tonight I noticed ice on car roofs. That's at least a touch of a wintry element to the festive weather for now and as far as the weather on Christmas Eve night goes, we've had worse.

Anyway Merry Christmas to you all :santa-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire

Happy Christmas Everyone. 

Are leave you with this bad boy from the pub run .

059FCCE5-5475-443F-9759-9FF9A7ACB8F9.png

676B3D46-CFE6-4C24-BA70-F4A7ADB60D10.png

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Posted
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but boringly hot
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl

Merry Christmas to all, let's hope Santa has some nice gifts for us in the morning, well for those that have been good ❄⛄

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Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)

I must admit as I get older I'm losing my love of cold. It's such a pleasant balmy like evening out there. Don't get me wrong I love snow but if it ain't cold enough for snow surely it might as well be 12/13 degrees and pleasant. Where's the fun in 4 degrees and lashing rain??

Edited by January Snowstorm
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, January Snowstorm said:

I must admit as I get older I'm losing my love of cold. It's such a pleasant balmy like evening out there. Don't get me wrong I love snow but if it ain't cold enough for snow surely it might as well be 12/13 degrees and pleasant. Where's the fun in 4 degrees and lashing rain??

I had a persistent all day ground frost today and was getting thicker on way back home at 9.15

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I had a persistent all day ground frost today and was getting thicker on way back home at 9.15

Cars all glazed over with ice here,should be a festive wake up in the morning

a Cristmas day frost on the ground,can't remember the last time that was.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Cars all glazed over with ice here,should be a festive wake up in the morning

a Cristmas day frost on the ground,can't remember the last time that was.

apart from 2010, i wonder when there last was a severe frost, 92 xmas i think, possibly 93 as well

EDIT maybe 95

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
19 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

apart from 2010, i wonder when there last was a severe frost, 92 xmas i think, possibly 93 as well

EDIT maybe 95

 

8 years ago then,how time flies

now we have the ground frozen,bring on the snow❄️

we have a strat warming now,we are in a good position,but where will the cold hit?

Greece you have had your fair share over the years,now it's our turn.

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
  • Weather Preferences: WINTERS WITH HEAVY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS.
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.

 A question for you folks according to Space whether there is a  Corrinal hole facing the Earth  and they reckon solar winds will arrive on earth with in three days would that have any effect on what the current model output is showing thank you.

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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
1 hour ago, syed2878 said:

 A question for you folks according to Space whether there is a  Corrinal hole facing the Earth  and they reckon solar winds will arrive on earth with in three days would that have any effect on what the current model output is showing thank you.

Generally not perceived to be a good thing I believe, as it can drag the JetStream northwards. 

Frankly, I wouldn’t be overly bothered at all, as per a post I made yesterday,  maybe that combined with other factors might somehow concoct into the perfect formula for us.

Due to hit in 2-3 days anyway. At least it will be good news for Aurora chances.

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

At last a yummy chart southern Greenland heights pulled out west and just look at Europe epic if it happens beautiful chart.

GFS  lala land gfsnh-0-336.thumb.png.8ac9eed1f92ddb6391b70995a30265b4.png

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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

Happy Christmas morning.

The 00Zs decent enough.

The ECM currently out to D8 and certainly not without interest...

1576B353-C453-4F0A-AC78-8E8D8C8AA99D.thumb.png.711578de3a070da76af047b48fc1e240.png

Plenty of nice GEFS festive eye candy as well...

Cross Polar special 

CB8EE017-307D-4563-90FA-12A99679E18A.thumb.png.37c6b159a8f11862b2cc4dec8b6e44fb.png

And check this one out. From...

D3780276-B79F-4C45-A9BD-BFC539B57172.thumb.png.13e8b3ebf9002abdba1cce5945bc292e.png

to this in a day and a half...

6315AA55-A900-49E5-B11D-FD9F0BC1F7E9.thumb.png.c86bdc8b4c6cf17d1dd6d6ed6850479e.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

merry christmas

Not much festive cheer from the ECM again,flattens the whole pattern at the end,but hopefully wrong,patience is going to be the key word  over the Christmas period .

Enjoy your gifts from Santa

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

Happy Christmas to everyone.

The good news is the models can only get better!

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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

I would imagine the Italian and Greek weather forums will have been buzzing recently! Certainly looks good for them right now. Let’s hope everything starts backing north and west over the coming days and a Greek tragedy. 

If not we may indeed have to wait a little longer. Looking forward to seeing how this transpires, certainly some frigid cold uppers ready to be kicked out southwards soon.

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

A very Merry Christmas to all here in this special corner of the world, Go steady on the Sprouts.

At least the EC46 looks chilly..

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Posted
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
  • Weather Preferences: Storms frost snow heatwaves
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.

Oh Tight Isobar as well as Helen Willets and the like, whatever happened to the promise and the dream...Seasons greetings anyhow from a subtropical filled Cork 

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
28 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Happy Christmas all.

Zero sign of the SSW/Strat split delivering anything yet. 

Merry Christmas everybody, the only thing splitting this morning is my head....self inflicted of course  

Edited by Dancerwithwings
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Merry Christmas all, Santa didn't deliver any decent model output this morning, still as boring looking as ever but despite the weather, enjoy today and hopefully next year will be better!!!:santa-emoji:

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