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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, karlos1983 said:

Nice shortwave ejected south could lead to a good fi here form the pub run

48CF024A-6CF6-4D37-A770-5472DD8F9D2B.thumb.png.3743c261755f5808040f9d3a8fa96182.png

That's got to be the smallest upper trough i've ever seen.

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

That's got to be the smallest upper trough i've ever seen.

Yeah, bound to be on the money

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, karlos1983 said:

Yeah, bound to be on the money

On a serious note though, i know its unrealistic but if the 850hpa temps were a degree or so lower, it would give a right dumping for the South East.

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

On a serious note though, i know its unrealistic but if the 850hpa temps were a degree or so lower, it would give a right dumping for the South East.

Frustrating thing is every time we look to get a chance of our ridge heading north, it just can’t quite make it... 

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Secondary warming crops up again.... 

8060597C-E4B7-466F-861C-2C533DDF9C90.thumb.png.1b4ba9945d1a18cfcb82f7c170f07cd2.png

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Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland

Basically under the influence of the exact same area of high pressure from start to finish on the 18z GFS.

Hoping for better in the coming days.

Happy Christmas everyone.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

This one is for u feb

AB06996B-8492-407C-9C9C-F913D32B0F1F.png

Yes, its good, although looking at the various levels it looks very complex to me.

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Posted
  • Location: NorthWest Central London, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy Winters, Hot and Sunny Summers - Never Mild!
  • Location: NorthWest Central London, United Kingdom

Whatever the weather, hope you all have a very Merry Christmas! :santa-emoji::snowman-emoji::drunk-emoji::reindeer-emoji:

PS: Sorry this is off topic Mods, but I hope you can allow this festive post.

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Posted
  • Location: Hernia Bay
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow
  • Location: Hernia Bay
5 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Decent enough 18z. Full of, dare I say, ‘potential’?

Anyway, a very happy Christmas to you all!!:cold-emoji::drunk-emoji::santa-emoji:

Oh how hilarious. You are a one

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
8 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Yep, Merry Christmas one and all. Time for that nerve racking deed of putting the presents out and hoping all 3 stay asleep  

Or even more nerve wracking, watching the GFS ensembles come out!

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Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
28 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

Basically under the influence of the exact same area of high pressure from start to finish on the 18z GFS.

Hoping for better in the coming days.

Happy Christmas everyone.

Hi Darkman

Your around long enough to know things can and will change often within the 5/6 day range.....or are you just using the old reverse psychology .......happy Christmas to you and all fellow netweather fans!!

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Probably the best set of ECM extended ensembles in recent days, but that isn't saying much. By D15, probably 60% of members with no chance of cold and 40% with some chance (though not particularly convincing even among those). It had been 75/25 over the past few days. But in the face of it, deep cold looks off the menu for some time. Would be concerning if no SSW on the cards?

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

The 18z gives us a festive strat smile with a split lip

gfsnh-10-384.thumb.png.0bf198761e8f6dd2e185e06581c0afb4.png

and nicely amplified at the end

gfsnh-0-384.thumb.png.7aae844ea6220f3993d1fe88cb9c65d7.png

 

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

The JMA now and how lovely that looks and started this way back past 240 hrs

JN6-5.thumb.GIF.0bab938290f54cb63ca817b9ea20f587.GIF

and in animated goes for two splits.

tempresult_fgu0.thumb.gif.7e0bfe78227f992eac3416089a431a59.gif

Edit:cant get gif to work.

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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