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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

I'm starting to see the first signs that the models may start amplifying the pattern day 7+ more than recently, especially in the Atlantic sector.

If it develops into a trend we could see our first cold Op runs as a Christmas day present by day 10 of tomorrow's output. 

This is the the earliest and most optimistic of time-frames though (first week of Jan) so I'm not getting carried away, just saying the first clues are there to follow.

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Torrington, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: storms - of the severe kind
  • Location: Torrington, Devon
33 minutes ago, Skyraker said:

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=10.99,74.26,360/loc=104.526,69.642

Worth bookmarking as its's a nice graphic to look at at any time.

 

+12C @ 10hpa

 

 

 

Great link, and for those that haven't found it yet. hold down left mouse button over the globe, and move mouse

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, stevofunnelcl said:

Great link, and for those that haven't found it yet. hold down left mouse button over the globe, and move mouse

Do you think we might get some funnel cloud snow this winter?

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
1 hour ago, The Eagle said:

Shame we haven't been able to build on some positive medium term changes on the 00z runs today so far.

Last thing we need is everything flattening again in to January.

 

gfs-0-276.png?12

 

I wouldn’t be taking a scintilla of notice of anything past 180hrs. Short term changes is what will affect the long term, and already, there is a big correction North of heights in the Atlantic on the 12z run. It often takes a bit of time for the models to iron out the scenarios, especially during a SSW. Expect big flips and flops in the latter timeframes of these runs. 

Even with the beast from the east, it started off with a “now you see it, now you don’t” episode. 

Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91
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Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
1 hour ago, Optimus Prime said:

The temperatures look quite low, but hardly a winter wonderland for northern  Europe towards the end of December.

Cold but i would be dissapointed if I was living in Sweden, and at the end of December all that had settled is a couple of inches! Good god this winters been a long and unpleasant drag so far .

If you lived in Sweden do you believe you would be hunting cold or would snow be much of a muchness?

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

tempresult_jux4.thumb.gif.4c8c416c8c6a351729f4acaa3a9fdfcc.gif

gensnh-6-1-312.thumb.png.712be9006bd0aa1a3a4944509e833315.png

tempresult_pjr2.thumb.gif.e1e466b6002bd3c21b4a9b88716de70b.gif

tempresult_yyn2.thumb.gif.9264b7023daa8d77bfb19fc61d296ef0.gif

gens-8-2-324.thumb.png.236abac2b43c21ab0811dcfdd0ccc7e0.pnggensnh-9-1-384.thumb.png.aaa5701fe2c962dab76114ffa9653b68.pnggensnh-16-0-264.thumb.png.384147b5cb399de560460a4d6f2c89a8.pnggensnh-17-0-348.thumb.png.db4d0737582198089dd5c079955c960b.png  

tempresult_ndd2.thumb.gif.e4cf6fbf489bf0fd05f33feed1d6aaa3.gif

GEFS in the Christmas spirit with some Christmas crackers! ❤️ :cold: :santa-emoji: 

If I dont get the chance later tonight I would just like to wish everyone on Netweather a very merry Christmas and I hope you all have a fantastic day tomorrow whatever you are doing and hopefully :santa-emoji: is good to you all and gives you what you want, and also I would like to say that my thoughts and prayers are with everyone affected by the volcanic eruption and the tsunami in Indonesia  

christmas-teaser-1.thumb.jpg.6aaff0a9f3d3e917c936383acb1f6f85.jpg

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
43 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

We MUST see this, we MUST see that, the xxx update is so important this time or we will have to wait until February etc etc. Sorry, what?

Everything will look look different in a week and it still won’t even be January yet.

A stratospheric warming (nailed on and underway)  will hold in store many surprises to follow, things that the models haven’t come close to fathoming out.

Chill, be happy and stop lurching from one extreme to the other over specific aspects of stratospheric chart outputs, the greater picture is still in sight from what I can see. And even if the GFS has got this 100% right, it still will be a decent strat event with likely repercussions for the mid latitudes in terms of a cold spell for many.

Far too much 2 + 2 = 4 on here at the moment. We all should know by now that it doesn’t work like that at times like this. 

Worth reminding ourselves of what happened in late Feb/early March this year. As mad as that late winter ‘18 spell was, once underway it could have been so much better. It really was a case of the forcings being being too extreme and everything being thrown into high speed reverse. The HL blocking would normally have stopped over Greenland and given an extension to the cold but it just carried on accelerating away west all the way to Canada. This left us open to the Atlantic and the rest is history. Bigger isn’t always better!

.

I said similar the other day but some on here get so wrapped up in every run they just ignore what people say, upto them I suppose bit the bigger picture is much better to look at than every single run.

cheers

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
14 minutes ago, Ramp said:

If you lived in Sweden do you believe you would be hunting cold or would snow be much of a muchness?

If you live in country that gets snow every year guaranteed..it becomes much of a muchness..its the norm and not worthy of discussions unless its a major storm..bit like rain in the UK.

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Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales

If only I lived there steve...not the battleground scenario I was hoping for this week, ' the realistic moaners' v the 'optimistic rampers'...the next few days will be comical if nothing else...

Happy Xmas all !

 

Edited by KTtom
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Posted
  • Location: Galleywood
  • Location: Galleywood
4 hours ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Feel like it’s worth having an escape from the models. The fact that Christmas is around the corner makes it a great reason. 

Problem with chasing for cold is it drops you onto the diving board ready to catapult you into the swimming pool of addiction. It’s hard to swim away from the addiction! ??‍♂️ That longing for the cold and snow numerous wintry fans crave for! We chase. And chase. And chase. All that’s needed is for that darn lid of no snow to be lifted off. 

Even if not, just got to have faith that something white will turn up. At some point. 

Psst, GFS, the greedy red line would like to see a strong block to the North and some Easterlies and Northlies of steel, (whenever the models are next viewed). And the same for you ECMWF, UKMO, GEM and ICON.

May you all have a magical time tomorrow. I know for some it may not be so merry, so probably best to make the most of what you can tomorrow, if so. ?? 

You better behave yourselves on here tonight, or you may just get that lump of coal. Santa can tell when you’ve been naughty! This is his favourite thread. So you better watch it! 

395255E9-16E7-420D-8E0A-1CC6FBE159F1.thumb.jpeg.662bb09eac7c804d9be7c2c22edece6d.jpeg Well Said 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

ECM output = zzzzzzz!

Most of the PV moves to the ne but the lobe of death gets left behind in ne Canada !

The GFS evolution has no support from the other outputs , looks like the coma inducing outputs continue .

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

ECM output = zzzzzzz!

Most of the PV moves to the ne but the lobe of death gets left behind in ne Canada !

The GFS evolution has no support from the other outputs , looks like the coma inducing outputs continue .

Any thoughts on day 10 Nick?

Atlantic profile suggests to me a window opening with more energy about to drop south to open the door for 'our' high to get dragged westwards..?

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

For a split second there, I hoped that the GFS Para was going to bring me my star present; unfortunately it's just another pair of beige-coloured socks!

image.thumb.png.ce9e98d9e89b5f7431f6955c375477e5.png

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

ECM output = zzzzzzz!

Most of the PV moves to the ne but the lobe of death gets left behind in ne Canada !

The GFS evolution has no support from the other outputs , looks like the coma inducing outputs continue .

Lobe of the death

If we could get a decent block to our E or N it could be the lobe of love :air_kiss: ⛄️ 

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
12 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Any thoughts on day 10 Nick?

Atlantic profile suggests to me a window opening with more energy about to drop south to open the door for 'our' high to get dragged westwards..?

Some energy does drop south but the PV looks like it might heading sw again .

There might be an opportunity earlier around day 8 if the upstream pattern could find more amplification.

Look out for the spreads in case that shortwave sw of Iceland is tracked closer to the UK. That needs to eject cleanly and head se.

 

 

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Some energy does drop south but the PV looks like it might heading sw again .

There might be an opportunity earlier around day 8 if the upstream pattern could find more amplification.

Look out for the spreads in case that shortwave sw of Iceland is tracked closer to the UK.

 

Postage stamps would be handy

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Any thoughts on day 10 Nick?

Atlantic profile suggests to me a window opening with more energy about to drop south to open the door for 'our' high to get dragged westwards..?

D10 with a UK high that could be fluid within that envelope, I would not take much note of the 12z ECM at that range. Looking at the GEFS ar D10, variety is the name:

D10 gens_panel_voi9.png  D12: gens_panel_nyk8.png

At D12 even with all the variety, nothing solid to get excited about. No inclination for high latitude blocking. Reboot needed.

Very little promise TBH

 

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Just now, karlos1983 said:

Postage stamps would be handy

Unfortunately the stinges at ECM did away with that free site with all the postage stamps .

The GFS is much more generous with its info .

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

btw, travelling this morning and realised I missed the 00z ec strat run ......... split was  lost as high as 10 hpa .... it’s back again at 12z and better than previous days output but two things

a) ridge looks more griceland than scriceland (which was previous guidance) and

b) it’s put back 18 hours wrt yesterday and the loss of continuity of previous runs is a worry 

so whilst Berlin will look cracking in the morning, it’s a good job the earlier run wasn’t shown !

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