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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: clear skies , hard frost , snow !
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

hing his support for GFS 00z with cold / snow E/Europe and down to Greece... 

Probably a standard response to a UK high but he seems to think its a good fit to the SSW..

yes I saw that and thought urghh - maybe no cold showing for uk in the models means no cold for uk !!

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Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
2 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Hmmmm

4th January 2013 

ECMOPEU00_240_1.png

ECM 240

ECMOPEU00_240_1.png

I think youll find that you are seeing double.  both are for 2019

 

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)

Feel like it’s worth having an escape from the models. The fact that Christmas is around the corner makes it a great reason. 

Problem with chasing for cold is it drops you onto the diving board ready to catapult you into the swimming pool of addiction. It’s hard to swim away from the addiction! ??‍♂️ That longing for the cold and snow numerous wintry fans crave for! We chase. And chase. And chase. All that’s needed is for that darn lid of no snow to be lifted off. 

Even if not, just got to have faith that something white will turn up. At some point. 

Psst, GFS, the greedy red line would like to see a strong block to the North and some Easterlies and Northlies of steel, (whenever the models are next viewed). And the same for you ECMWF, UKMO, GEM and ICON.

May you all have a magical time tomorrow. I know for some it may not be so merry, so probably best to make the most of what you can tomorrow, if so. ?? 

You better behave yourselves on here tonight, or you may just get that lump of coal. Santa can tell when you’ve been naughty! This is his favourite thread. So you better watch it! 

395255E9-16E7-420D-8E0A-1CC6FBE159F1.thumb.jpeg.662bb09eac7c804d9be7c2c22edece6d.jpeg

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
Mistake correcting
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Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
Just now, Weather-history said:

Don't see double on my oriiginal post but I do see on your quoted post!. The bottom looks different but when tapped, it shows ECM 240 on my original post

Your original post is now correct, I blame the elves.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Well it having championed an earlier significant wind reversal in the strat for about a week, every member, without fail, today's GEFS zonal wind chart:

image.thumb.jpg.9e1f54734ea72e2b004ef2df5f4f9b41.jpg

Delayed about 24 hrs since yesterday's, and all members are marginal as a reversal.  

At the same time, the ECM still showing the split and significant reversal. 

image.thumb.jpg.cbfce40c8145432c60857a4de9c57387.jpg

It's squeaky bum time!  My money's on the ECM, but it's difficult wrt the strat we can see lots of GFS/FV3/GEFS runs every day, but only one ECM via the Berlin site.  

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

No hunt for cold in Sweden. Their coldest day of the winter so far. Pictures from my daughters family place about 1 hours drive north of Stockholm.

C

IMG_1303 (5).JPG

IMG_1316 (1).JPG

Edited by carinthian
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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Well it having championed an earlier significant wind reversal in the strat for about a week, every member, without fail, today's GEFS zonal wind chart:

image.thumb.jpg.9e1f54734ea72e2b004ef2df5f4f9b41.jpg

Delayed about 24 hrs since yesterday's, and all members are marginal as a reversal.   At the same time, the ECM still showing the split and significant reversal. 

It's squeaky bum time!  My money's on the ECM, but it's difficult wrt the strat we can see lots of GFS/FV3/GEFS runs every day, but only one ECM via the Berlin site.  

Searching Twitter for strat expert analysis to calm the nerves 

EC45AB8A-0690-4036-8C49-CDA8E31088A6.gif.6afb3f093485397ed615972e5a1fb017.gif

but can’t find anything..... no news is good news right...

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Posted
  • Location: Hernia Bay
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow
  • Location: Hernia Bay
1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

The thing with all these SSW forecasts is until they happen no one knows how that will effect the weather in Europe .

Theres a lot of supposition . Best to keep an open mind . 

 

My point exactly 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
14 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Searching Twitter for strat expert analysis to calm the nerves 

EC45AB8A-0690-4036-8C49-CDA8E31088A6.gif.6afb3f093485397ed615972e5a1fb017.gif

but can’t find anything..... no news is good news right...

Dunno but the gfs op has 10hpa back to 20 odd m/s by day 16 ........

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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

Afternoon all

Sometimes the new day makes things clearer but more often it only makes it all murkier.

Those who were hoping for an early New Year present from the stratosphere look to be out of luck - whether we get a split or a displacement the initial impact of the ongoing warming seems to be, as we often see, to re-group the focus on the Canadian side so the second burst of HP which sits over the British Isles as a mid latitude around New Year is flattened as the jet powers up at the end of the first week of January.

There is then the usual 7-10 day period of renewed Atlantic conditions as the PV sits over Canada/Greenland before the amplification or the downwelling takes over and it shifts either westward or over to Siberia with the latter looking the favoured option which opens the door to the trough dropping down into NW Europe (suggested by both 06Z OP and Parallel). Whether we can see mid Atlantic height rises behind that is the next question. The option of a Scandinavian HP seems off the table.

Plenty of the 06Z GEFS favour an anticyclonic FI but where the HP ends up still seems open to question. P11 would be ideal for the cold fans (PV over the Pole and heading for Siberia).

A lot will depend on how quickly residual PV energy can be washed out of the Canada/Greenland region - it may be we will have to wait until mid January for the process to complete and the way to be clear for high latitude blocking in our part of the world.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
19 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Searching Twitter for strat expert analysis to calm the nerves 

but can’t find anything..... no news is good news right...

@Summer Sun has just posted one in the strat thread. Phew.

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Dunno but the gfs op has 10hpa back to 20 odd m/s by day 16 ........

Actual steam may come out of my ears if the GFS is sniffing the right solution.... it’s been a long week or 2 watching this warming event get nearer .

not saying it will, just naturally a bit confused right now! My head says trust the ECM... but I’d have expected the GFS to have fallen in line by now

EDIT: ok cheers @Mike Poole that is reassuring. Amy is well respected by some from re-tweets I’ve seen in the past. So I’m happy with that  

maybe the GFS is saving it for Christmas morning LOL

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Actual steam may come out of my ears if the GFS is sniffing the right solution.... it’s been a long week or 2 watching this warming event get nearer .

not saying it will, just naturally a bit confused right now! My head says trust the ECM... but I’d have expected the GFS to have fallen in line by now

ECM is all over this strat stuff, ignore GFS.

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Good counselling session, thanks all :oldrofl:

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Merry christmas...1-an, all.

Dont forget the models are as many of us will be over coming days...wobbling about-clueless..

And charged with non-dedirable!!.

 

Luck and health to all.

see you in a few days....

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

What amuses me a while back a few posters were saying why are the GFS stat charts being shown always at 384 h?...and the general response was if showing at range that you could count it down like clockwork whether displacement or split, certainly not the case with this GFS episode!

Edited by Froze were the Days
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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
3 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

What amuses me a while back a few posters were saying why are the GFS stat charts being shown always at 384 h?...and the general response was if showing at range that you could count it down like clockwork whether displacement or split, certainly not the case with this GFS episode!

Indeed it’s been all over the show to be honest . Some posts in the strat thread to carm the nerves now . The only model not showing SSW and then split vortex is the GFS .

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Posted
  • Location: Gloucester
  • Weather Preferences: Snow that settles then freezes!
  • Location: Gloucester
1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Indeed it’s been all over the show to be honest . Some posts in the strat thread to carm the nerves now . The only model not showing SSW and then split vortex is the GFS .

Have you got a link to the strat thread please I just can’t find it for this winter 

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Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
1 hour ago, aitchbomb said:

Have you got a link to the strat thread please I just can’t find it for this winter 

Still using last years thread 

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/88772-stratosphere-temperature-watch-201718/?page=67

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Indeed it’s been all over the show to be honest . Some posts in the strat thread to carm the nerves now . The only model not showing SSW and then split vortex is the GFS .

Don't know about a split vortex, AC, but I'm well on the way to developing a split personality. And we're just about ready for the latest piece of the GFS-Jenga-puzzle to not fall into place!

Merry Xmas from both of us!:crazy:

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Good  improvement on the GFS12 hrs run.

Note the low west of Newfoundland at day 7 , this will help pivot the PV lobe away less energy spilling east .

Edited by nick sussex
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