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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Tuscan Apennines (approx 500M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal (Continental)
  • Location: Tuscan Apennines (approx 500M ASL)
1 hour ago, draztik said:

Realism has never been this forums friend. 

Realism as in "Let's just cancel winter"?! Ha ha - you are funny! Thanks for spreading some festive cheer and not suggesting cancelling Christmas!

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Just another 13 hours or so until we can tell the moaners it’s irrelevant, the ooor charts are all down to missing data  

It beggars belief in here sometimes it really does. ?‍♂️

Have a good Christmas everyone, be merry & jolly! I’ve got a date with the pub and a flashing Christmas jumper! 

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Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Just another 13 hours or so until we can tell the moaners it’s irrelevant, the ooor charts are all down to missing data  

It beggars belief in here sometimes it really does. ?‍♂️

Have a good Christmas everyone, be merry & jolly! I’ve got a date with the pub and a flashing Christmas jumper! 

The models are going to flip to cold over the Xmas period and I guarantee the moaners will highlight the lack of data as the probable cause.

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
9 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

Yes, hopefully we'll start seeing some changes in the way the models are handling the SSW fairly soon?

There is still so much uncertainty regarding the actual SSW in terms of displacement or split and any future propagation effects for North West Europe & UK

I just get the feeling that we won't see anything notable until later in the season, perhaps into February or early March! 

But, watch the USA catch it big time yet again!

 

 

I wonder if the Balkan freeze that the 6z shows is the response to the stratospheric warming.

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Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
6 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I’ve got a date with the pub and a flashing Christmas jumper! 

Same here and I will be raising my glass to the ssw. Fun times are hopefully on the way at some point in the not too distant future. 

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

Such a shame that the GFS 06z, having improved in the troposphere, took a step back in the stratosphere. It just can't seem to properly 'see' this vortex split event, with too little being made of the positive geopotential heights on the Atlantic side of the stratosphere.

For the forum mood, we could do with an ECM run that doesn't throw in a million complications (exaggeration alert!) to mess up an Arctic-N. Atlantic ridge linkup. If the MJO can keep trending faster out of P5 and the western part of P6, the modelling should come around before long.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

London ens - not many qtr runs ......

No - and if we don't get one, we are then running out of time as the vortex looks like returning to the pole in the strat, if this NW flow keeps getting pushed back as well, i wont be far off jumping ship to the pessimistic camp, we really need a good EC46 tonight, i haven't got any internet on my phone and this is a very important update so may elect not to go for a pint tonight now and stay in for the update.

gensnh-21-7-384_rye3.png

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
2 hours ago, johnholmes said:

Not sure if the 30 mb Pole temperature will bring the cold, it just might. Now on its way back tto the average line.

Anyway greater minds than mine can tell you if the cold will arrive in  early/mid January!

I still reckon this link suggests a 50% chance it will.

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/

 

Anyway to everyone hope you are able to have a

Happy Christmas and good health in 2019.

 

Thanks John for your 'level headed' input again this year. I don't often post in here but your day to day run comparisons and lack of 'knee jerk reaction', is appreciated by many. When you really start smelling the cold Ill take notice.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

London ens - not many qtr runs ......

Thats not a suprise to me if i'm honest- 

Looks like we are going further into Jan for any response..

I would be interested to hear your views on the GFS/EC strat conundrum Blue, GFS still having nothing to do with any split? Added to that, if there is any split on EC it doesn't sound like its going to be a favourable one..

I'm with Feb TBH, he just posted hes getting close to jumping onto the pessimistic stance too.

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
11 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Some really interesting GEFS in FI

 

8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

London ens - not many qtr runs ......

Hmmm

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Posted
  • Location: Clacton-on-Sea, Essex
  • Location: Clacton-on-Sea, Essex

I don't think we can expect to see anything meaningful in terms of cold just yet. With the "official" SSW and split likely to be around 1st January we'd be very lucky to see the troposphere responding favourably before the 2nd week of 2019.... Currently beyond even the low resolution runs. Patience coldies, patience. It'll come.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

A bit of role reversal going on as the ECM becomes flatter and the GFS more amplified earlier on.

The 06hrs run does bring some cold air further west and it wouldn’t take much to get that right into the UK. 

Lets hope today’s MJO forecast can accelerate the signal out of phase 5 and into 6 .

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

No - and if we don't get one, we are then running out of time as the vortex looks like returning to the pole in the strat, if this NW flow keeps getting pushed back as well, i wont be far off jumping ship to the pessimistic camp, we really need a good EC46 tonight, i haven't got any internet on my phone and this is a very important update so may elect not to go for a pint tonight now and stay in for the update.

gensnh-21-7-384_rye3.png

Go for a pint, the update will be there for eternity but Christmas eve  will have gone.

Edited by That ECM
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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
5 minutes ago, fujita5 said:

I don't think we can expect to see anything meaningful in terms of cold just yet. With the "official" SSW and split likely to be around 1st January we'd be very lucky to see the troposphere responding favourably before the 2nd week of 2019.... Currently beyond even the low resolution runs. Patience coldies, patience. It'll come.

The problem is that if the vortex quickly re-organises after the SSW (as per the gfs), our window of opportunity may be too small and we may need further stratospheric warmings down the line.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, karyo said:

The problem is that if the vortex quickly re-organises after the SSW (as per the gfs), our window of opportunity may be too small and we may need further stratospheric warmings down the line.

I certainly wouldn't rule these out though.

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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
13 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

No - and if we don't get one, we are then running out of time as the vortex looks like returning to the pole in the strat, if this NW flow keeps getting pushed back as well, i wont be far off jumping ship to the pessimistic camp, we really need a good EC46 tonight, i haven't got any internet on my phone and this is a very important update so may elect not to go for a pint tonight now and stay in for the update.

gensnh-21-7-384_rye3.png

Lol we all like the weather in here but to sacrifice a pint at Christmas for a model update is well pretty sad in my book

get out there in ya Santa jumper man

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
25 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

No - and if we don't get one, we are then running out of time as the vortex looks like returning to the pole in the strat, if this NW flow keeps getting pushed back as well, i wont be far off jumping ship to the pessimistic camp, we really need a good EC46 tonight, i haven't got any internet on my phone and this is a very important update so may elect not to go for a pint tonight now and stay in for the update.

gensnh-21-7-384_rye3.png

We are? Don’t confuse the standard 10/14 downwelling wave with a qtr .........

23 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Thats not a suprise to me if i'm honest- 

Looks like we are going further into Jan for any response..

I would be interested to hear your views on the GFS/EC strat conundrum Blue, GFS still having nothing to do with any split? Added to that, if there is any split on EC it doesn't sound like its going to be a favourable one..

The Berlin charts high up were quite interesting- gfs and ec at the top are not so different T96 to T126 - they diverse beyond that point ..... I know where my money is but strange to see differences so early on ... ec should be better at the top 

the ec split unclear whether would be a griceland or sgriceland ridge if it downwelled  

Edited by bluearmy
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking at the Gfs 6z operational in high res i was in danger of dying from boredom but then low res arrived!..at last some action!!..merry christmas all:santa-emoji:..ps..rudolf may struggle tonight with the expected fog across eastern areas!!:reindeer-emoji:

06_372_preciptype.png

06_384_ukthickness850.png

06_384_ukthickness.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, markw2680 said:

Lol we all like the weather in here but to sacrifice a pint at Christmas for a model update is well pretty sad in my book

get out there in ya Santa jumper man

Yes but i only have 10 quid left so cant afford any fags and that does my head in, so its not like i will be going on a drug fuelled drinking binge, it really will be an hour anyway so its not like i would be sacrificing a lot for the model run.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

We are? Don’t confuse the standard 10/14 downwelling wave with a qtr .........

The Berlin charts high up were quite interesting- gfs and ec at the top are not so different T96 to T126 - they diverse beyond that point ..... I know where my money is but strange to see differences so early on ... ec should be better at the top 

the ec split unclear whether would be a griceland or sgriceland ridge if it downwelled  

Thanks Blue and thanks for your input, i'm not going to lie, i'm getting a bit jittery at the moment..

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

We are? Don’t confuse the standard 10/14 downwelling wave with a qtr .........

The Berlin charts high up were quite interesting- gfs and ec at the top are not so different T96 to T126 - they diverse beyond that point ..... I know where my money is but strange to see differences so early on ... ec should be better at the top 

the ec split unclear whether would be a griceland or sgriceland ridge if it downwelled  

Not sure i get you there, the QTR is unlikely as signposted by met 30 dayer above all else but you also agree there is little evidence in output, followed by a vortex strengthening and returing to the pole, yes of course the trop might do what it wants for a bit, but thats pot luck and knowing things as we do, luck we rarely have, we need a 'controlled' SSW with a solid imprint on the trop, as i say, the Northerly option might be our best shot with an upwelling wave through Greenland to perhaps topple the ridge to scandi.

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