Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

[Purga]

26 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Not sure if the 30 mb Pole temperature will bring the cold, it just might. Now on its way back tto the average line.

Anyway greater minds than mine can tell you if the cold will arrive in  early/mid January!

I still reckon this link suggests a 50% chance it will.

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/

 

Anyway to everyone hope you are able to have a

Happy Christmas and good health in 2019.

 

Thank you John for your valued and level headed comments & input as always.

Wishing you the same seasonal greetings - with bells on!

[bluearmy]

41 minutes ago, draztik said:

So it’s been pushed back to mid January now? Here’s a thought.. let’s just cancel winter altogether. If I have to listen to “I feel we are in for something special” or “the strat.......” one more time!! The UK is seeing nothing at all right now. And the EC mean has a positive temp anomaly throughout its run ... that’s out to second week of January. People keep coming back here expecting MAJOR changes every morning, only to be disappointed. The strat is not our saviour, let’s stop pretending it is. 

And this is different to when ?????

No need to  make stuff up ....

[Paul White.]

42 minutes ago, draztik said:

So it’s been pushed back to mid January now? Here’s a thought.. let’s just cancel winter altogether. If I have to listen to “I feel we are in for something special” or “the strat.......” one more time!! The UK is seeing nothing at all right now. And the EC mean has a positive temp anomaly throughout its run ... that’s out to second week of January. People keep coming back here expecting MAJOR changes every morning, only to be disappointed. The strat is not our saviour, let’s stop pretending it is. 

Maybe you need a less stressful hobby. Because that was a bit of a moan in the wrong thread. 

[Purga]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

It’s the same as it said yesterday lunchtime?

Look on the bright side Nick, at least it hasn't been downgraded...Yet.

[johnholmes]

Trying to inject a touch of positive feeling in this thread, this is the Net Wx comparison charts for GFS-ECMWF, 00z and 12z,

https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/model-comparison

Notice how the EC version for 00z almost looks like it has seen the 30 mb temperature guide!

Also don't forget what I say every year. At such time scales STOP comparing run to run and check the same output so T+240 today and T+192 tomorrow etc, down to 144-168 then run to run if you want to.

[stodge]

Morning all

First, Christmas greetings to all fans of cold and snow (and presumably frost as well).

It looks very anticyclonic to end 2018 and start 2019 - the first push of HP will retreat slightly but the second push from Iberia looks much stronger and will create an MLB centred over or perhaps just to the west of the UK at New Year and just after. We could hopefully see some nice inversion under the anticyclone so some cold for many.

It does look as though (and the MetO forecast suggests this) we'll get another short-lived Atlantic push after that before (hopefully) we start seeing something more interesting. so yes, we might have to wait three weeks before we get the wintry nirvana for which we are all hoping (in this thread at any rate).

One route might be for the HP to pull far enough west to allow the Arctic trough to drop down over north west Europe - shades of December 2010. 

The GFS continues to frustrate with its strat forecast but we are seeing a significant warming event now and what comes out the other side will be a much warmer and weakened PV which can only bode well.

[shuggee]

Met Office 16-30 day outlook being discussed here:

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/75951-met-office-16-to-30-day-outlook/?page=106

 

[Singularity]

Hints of the tropically-driven changes - which will precede he main SSW-driven ones - in the model trends now.

GFS becoming worthy of a little more attention again... 06z trying for a combo of the 00z GFS’ more amplified N Atlantic and the 00z ECM’s more amplified E Pacific. A reasonable idea.

 

For what it’s worth the Met Office have a habit of ignoring model bias on MJO propagation for some reason. That’s all I’ll say on that.

[Guest]

wow everybody is full of the joys of spring in here this morning. cheer up you lot its Christmas...

[Weathizard]

This chart looks loading with potential to me, vortex lobe moving east high pivoting west.. we just need a bit of help nudging it northwards and that risidual energy on the eastern seaboard should take a hike, much less developed on this run though.

[Bobafet]

12 days of model watching!

On the first day of Christmas my true love sent to me 

1 sudden stratospheric warming

2 Ramps from Knocker

3 weeks of snow 

4 GP torpedoes 

5 Murr sausages

6 Ice days

7 Quick trop responses

8 hoar frosts

9 Gritters gritting

10 Greenland high pressures

11 people sniping

12 Days of model fatigue

A big thanks to all the regular posters for making this the worlds best weather forum and wish you all a happy Christmas and prosperous New year!

Edited December 24, 2018 by Bobafet
Spelling

[Neilsouth]

1991 started with lots of fog, the cold weather didn't happen until much later  - I remember going to school and it was always foggy lol

[swfc]

14 minutes ago, More Snow said:

wow everybody is full of the joys of spring in here this morning. cheer up you lot its Christmas...

Think its the xmas shopping and stress MS !!! btw great Jamie vardy profile pic

[swfc]

Better strat profile and placement on the gfs 6z imo Humongous pv in fi tho!!

Edited December 24, 2018 by swfc

[KTtom]

Looks like the 06z gfs trop is in the same mood as people in here...don't go there if you want cheering up...is this what you call raging zonality?

 

 

[karyo]

3 minutes ago, swfc said:

Better strat profile and placement on the gfs 6z imo

How is it better? The vortex is much stronger and there is not a hint of split.

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, karyo said:

How is it better? The vortex is much stronger and there is not a hint of split.

Ignore the Op I say, just keep an eye on the GEFS during SSWs - trends I mean!! 

Edited December 24, 2018 by Ali1977

[swfc]

1 minute ago, karyo said:

How is it better? The vortex is much stronger and there is not a hint of split.

sorry clicked on wrong link .

[Methuselah]

Certainly better for Scotland's ski resorts; otherwise, not really all that enlightening...Real changes are still too far out...

[feb1991blizzard]

Vortex in FI starting to strengthen and return to pole, we needed a proper split really.

https://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/strat.php?run=2018122406&var=HGT&lev=1mb&hour=384

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Certainly better for Scotland's ski resorts; otherwise, not really all that enlightening...Real changes are still too far out...

wish I lived in Scotland Ed, metres of snow, especially high up

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

wish I lived in Scotland Ed, metres of snow, especially high up

Problem is though, you also hate rain, so if you lived in Scotland.........

[Skyraker]

3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

wish I lived in Scotland Ed, metres of snow, especially high up

The Stafford snow shield will be obliterated in January.

 

I remember coming out of the Wildwood, New years I think to feet of snow.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Skyraker said:

The Stafford snow shield will be obliterated in January.

 

I remember coming out of the Wildwood, New years I think to feet of snow.

the days! I remember it too

[snowblizzard]

Yes, hopefully we'll start seeing some changes in the way the models are handling the SSW fairly soon?

There is still so much uncertainty regarding the actual SSW in terms of displacement or split and any future propagation effects for North West Europe & UK

I just get the feeling that we won't see anything notable until later in the season, perhaps into February or early March! 

But, watch the USA catch it big time yet again!