Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

[northwestsnow]

Clearly GFS still not seeing any split of the PV!
If anything it seems to be keen on a displacement and then another warming to our NE which in effect pushes the PV back to where we dont want it!!

Really hoping EC has things right in the strat but not seen any images for a couple of days if its dropped the idea?

Still waiting for signs that the low heights to our NW are going to buzz off..

I'm happy that the background signals remain positive because the only positive i can see at the moment is the A0/NAO..

[mulzy]

Nothing much has changed overnight.  The NWP is largely underwhelming. This is exemplified by the ext EPS which is much flatter than previous suites (moderate ridging mid-Atlantic but Atlantic going over the top with low heights returning to the Greenland locale).  Poor.

PS - I know the window for cold is mid-January onwards so plenty of time for things to turn around.  Keep the faith.

[Duane S.]

Even though all models are now forecasting an impressive zonal wind drop off and upper/mid strat warming, to varying degrees, it often takes for the event to be WELL underway before the models start to latch on properly with regards to the tropospheric effects.

Just because they are forecasting these stratospheric events, doesn’t mean they know how to (any way near) accurately forecast what the effects will be on the ground. I’d like to think it is improving but such are the scarcities of these type of events, the understanding gained will be minimal and only apply in that particular set of circumstances, a set of exact parameters that will never occur again. Analogues have their uses but it only takes one driver to wax or wane a fraction and a tipping point is reached (or not), the path could change immeasurably. Good luck with that one!

Expect big changes very soon on the charts, whether we get plunged into a cold nirvana, have to sit and watch as the high is sucked up TOO far NW or we see the cold cascade down to Greece and on to Morocco instead, we don’t yet know. But one thing  I struggle to see is a stagnant slug of a high as even being an option on the table. I suspect there will be a few bites at the cherry as well.

This is a good time, let’s enjoy the ride.

[karlos1983]

37 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Clearly GFS still not seeing any split of the PV!
If anything it seems to be keen on a displacement and then another warming to our NE which in effect pushes the PV back to where we dont want it!!

Really hoping EC has things right in the strat but not seen any images for a couple of days if its dropped the idea?

Still waiting for signs that the low heights to our NW are going to buzz off..

I'm happy that the background signals remain positive because the only positive i can see at the moment is the A0/NAO..

EC at 10hpa from yesterday look good! U wind reversal goes negative all the way to D10 -10.0m/s 

ECM remains solid.

 

Edited December 24, 2018 by karlos1983

[bluearmy]

32 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Nothing much has changed overnight.  The NWP is largely underwhelming. This is exemplified by the ext EPS which is much flatter than previous suites (moderate ridging mid-Atlantic but Atlantic going over the top with low heights returning to the Greenland locale).  Poor.

PS - I know the window for cold is mid-January onwards so plenty of time for things to turn around.  Keep the faith.

Indeed mulzy - the 46 was keen to go without the W Atlantic trough and just slowly retrogressed the high anomoly west - the gems also on that page now ... be interesting to see if this remains the extended route .....

[draztik]

50 minutes ago, mulzy said:

 

PS - I know the window for cold is mid-January onwards so plenty of time for things to turn around.  Keep the faith.

So it’s been pushed back to mid January now? Here’s a thought.. let’s just cancel winter altogether. If I have to listen to “I feel we are in for something special” or “the strat.......” one more time!! The UK is seeing nothing at all right now. And the EC mean has a positive temp anomaly throughout its run ... that’s out to second week of January. People keep coming back here expecting MAJOR changes every morning, only to be disappointed. The strat is not our saviour, let’s stop pretending it is. 

[Tim Bland]

54 minutes ago, mulzy said:

PS - I know the window for cold is mid-January onwards so plenty of time for things to turn around.  Keep the faith.

Is it mid Jan now I’m sure it gets pushed back by 7 days each week I’m off to Latvia to get my snow fix, I’m sure we will get a cold spell here  eventually.....

Merry Christmas everyone and remember - if the charts are Rubish for the next few days then it’s down to missing data

[Duane S.]

1 minute ago, draztik said:

So it’s been pushed back to mid January now? Here’s a thought.. let’s just cancel winter altogether. If I have to listen to “I feel we are in for something special” or “the strat.......” one more time!! The UK is seeing nothing at all right now. And the EC mean has a positive temp anomaly throughout its run ... that’s out to second week of January. People keep coming back here expecting MAJOR changes every morning, only to be disappointed. The strat is not our saviour, let’s stop pretending it is. 

Or... just don’t bother coming on here at all if every single one of your fleeting visits to the forum is to moan?

[draztik]

1 minute ago, s4lancia said:

Or... just don’t bother coming on here at all if every single one of your fleeting visits to the forum is to moan?

Realism has never been this forums friend. 

[fromey]

7 minutes ago, draztik said:

So it’s been pushed back to mid January now? Here’s a thought.. let’s just cancel winter altogether. If I have to listen to “I feel we are in for something special” or “the strat.......” one more time!! The UK is seeing nothing at all right now. And the EC mean has a positive temp anomaly throughout its run ... that’s out to second week of January. People keep coming back here expecting MAJOR changes every morning, only to be disappointed. The strat is not our saviour, let’s stop pretending it is. 

WOW, someone needs a bowl of Christmas cheer!!

[karlos1983]

9 minutes ago, draztik said:

So it’s been pushed back to mid January now? Here’s a thought.. let’s just cancel winter altogether. If I have to listen to “I feel we are in for something special” or “the strat.......” one more time!! The UK is seeing nothing at all right now. And the EC mean has a positive temp anomaly throughout its run ... that’s out to second week of January. People keep coming back here expecting MAJOR changes every morning, only to be disappointed. The strat is not our saviour, let’s stop pretending it is. 

 

[Duane S.]

6 minutes ago, draztik said:

Realism has never been this forums friend. 

Is it realism or just plain pessimistic and dull?

Why don’t you put forward exactly why YOU don’t think the strat event will bear fruit. Just basing it on your gloomy predisposition doesn’t count btw.

I look forward to your extensive analysis...

Edited December 24, 2018 by s4lancia

[johnholmes]

Not sure if the 30 mb Pole temperature will bring the cold, it just might. Now on its way back tto the average line.

Anyway greater minds than mine can tell you if the cold will arrive in  early/mid January!

I still reckon this link suggests a 50% chance it will.

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/

 

Anyway to everyone hope you are able to have a

Happy Christmas and good health in 2019.

 

[Ravelin]

8 minutes ago, draztik said:

Realism has never been this forums friend. 

I agree with you on this, as amply illustrated by the quote below... 

13 minutes ago, draztik said:

So it’s been pushed back to mid January now? Here’s a thought.. let’s just cancel winter altogether. If I have to listen to “I feel we are in for something special” or “the strat.......” one more time!! The UK is seeing nothing at all right now. And the EC mean has a positive temp anomaly throughout its run ... that’s out to second week of January. People keep coming back here expecting MAJOR changes every morning, only to be disappointed. The strat is not our saviour, let’s stop pretending it is. 

With any SSW only really occurring late Dec, realistically the most likely time for it to have an effect, if it does, was always going to be mid Jan. That's well outside the range of any of the trop models most of us have access to. If you are coming here at this stage expecting to see MAJOR changes then you are setting yourself up to be disappointed. Anything happening prior to that will be a bonus, as has been repeatedly stated by posters much more knowledgeable than me. 

Edited December 24, 2018 by Ravelin
Typos

[The Northern Ramper]

3 minutes ago, fromey said:

WOW, someone needs a bowl of Christmas cheer!!

So that’s the reason he’s on the naughty list 

[Methuselah]

10 hours ago, s4lancia said:

I can understand the annoyance, the ops are hardly inspiring at at the moment.

But with what is going on in the upper atmosphere and impending increased Pacific forcing, change is a coming and when it comes it’ll more than likely happen fast and be striking.

And, at the end of the day, if the Beast has been merely postponed to mid Jan (and not done away with altogether) none of the models has a snowflake's chance in Hell of picking it up, anyway...

Keep the faith. And Merry Christmas to all!

[SLEETY]

13 minutes ago, draztik said:

So it’s been pushed back to mid January now? Here’s a thought.. let’s just cancel winter altogether. If I have to listen to “I feel we are in for something special” or “the strat.......” one more time!! The UK is seeing nothing at all right now. And the EC mean has a positive temp anomaly throughout its run ... that’s out to second week of January. People keep coming back here expecting MAJOR changes every morning, only to be disappointed. The strat is not our saviour, let’s stop pretending it is. 

It’s the 24th today,so that’s why nothing is showing on the main models.

So your going to ignore the expert advice from the knowledgeable posters here and the professionals at the meto and other organisations that talk about a high chance of much colder weather in January.

Sounds like the generation we have now that want everything instantly,can’t wait for anything 

 

 

 

 

[Weather-history]

13 minutes ago, draztik said:

So it’s been pushed back to mid January now? Here’s a thought.. let’s just cancel winter altogether. If I have to listen to “I feel we are in for something special” or “the strat.......” one more time!! The UK is seeing nothing at all right now. And the EC mean has a positive temp anomaly throughout its run ... that’s out to second week of January. People keep coming back here expecting MAJOR changes every morning, only to be disappointed. The strat is not our saviour, let’s stop pretending it is. 

Weren't you moaning about how bad the heatwave was having on this country back in July? So surely you should be please with the output if it is to delay any chance of any severe winter weather spell because what impact you would think that would have on the country?

 

 

[MattStoke]

Don’t know why certain people bother coming on weather forums when they have such attitude. Utterly pointless.

[Northern Sky]

3 minutes ago, draztik said:

Realism has never been this forums friend. 

I'm not sure "let's just cancel winter altogether" constitutes realism. The model output isn't great but perhaps an analysis of it would be better placed in one of the other threads?

People are here to look for cold, that's the point of it and while the tropospheric modelling doesn't look great the model output in the stratosphere shows much to be hopeful about further down the line.

The consequences of events in the strat are not a gaurantee of cold weather for us but there are many examples of when events such as we are seeing happening right now have been a precursor to cold. Looking at those hopeful signs and trying to work out how and when they could affect is is all part of hunt for cold. 

[Polar Maritime]

Ok, It's Christmas Eve.. The team will not tolerate posts that create knee jerk reactions and de-rail the thread. So please think about what your posting before clicking submit or posts will end up dissapering. The festive season is upon us so let's all get on and enjoy the discussions in a friendly manner on what is currently quite fascinating Model watching on offer over the Christmas period, Which couldn't come at a better time...

Edited December 24, 2018 by Polar Maritime

[Methuselah]

So, here's the GEFS 00Z T850 ensemble - a definite overall decline in temps from New Year onward...Mid-month here we come!

[Weathizard]

Same old nonsense this morning, this is a hunt for cold thread... it’s blatant trolling!

The GFS 0z ensembles this morning are actually quite indicative that something is going on, we have a major strat warming and a mega MLB building over us, I’m amazed some are so negative but there you are, I guess it comes with the frustration of the wait and chasing.

 

Enjoy Christmas everyone, January will be fun I’m sure of it!

[Duane S.]

19 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Not sure if the 30 mb Pole temperature will bring the cold, it just might. Now on its way back tto the average line.

Anyway greater minds than mine can tell you if the cold will arrive in  early/mid January!

I still reckon this link suggests a 50% chance it will.

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/

 

Anyway to everyone hope you are able to have a

Happy Christmas and good health in 2019.

 

EC has a stronger warming forecast though than the JMA...

I’m with you though, I had also noticed the correlation between a decent winter warming spike at mid strat and our weather. It doesn’t always work, but most times we get at least a cool down a little while later.

[snowfish1]

Let's at least post positive ideas. Some of the comments quoting individuals is shameful. Very naughty indeed. Let's have a little comradery and Christmas Spirit and at the same time give the Mods who would also like a Merry Christmas more of an opportunity to do so. MERRY CHRISTMAS MODELS may you be kind and give us something special