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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
4 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

The eps are a little worrisome to say the least.

So the ECM strat forecast has trended towards the GFS?

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
1 minute ago, Don said:

So the ECM strat forecast has trended towards the GFS?

No not that . No one has posted the strat  from the ECM 12z tonight . Behind pay wall I believe. 

Edited by ICE COLD
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, Don said:

So the ECM strat forecast has trended towards the GFS?

No i'm not aware of that Don, unless someone has posted otherwise..

GFS is getting better strat wise, haven't seen the para, its probably not out yet anyway..

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Just now, ICE COLD said:

No not that . No one has posted the srat from the ECM 12z tonight . Behind pay wall I believe. 

Ok thanks.

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

@bobbydog sorry to hear the situation you are in, hope things work out for you / get better 

@Daniel Smith Exactly my thoughts, think it will be into the new year before the bigger picture is worked out but the cold /snow potential charts will continue to increase towards the second week of Jan (8th Jan onward)

I will refer back to the three p's that I mentioned a few days ago 

POSITIVITY 

POTENTIAL

PATIENCE

1. POSITIVITY - what is there to be positive about? we are currently seeing a stratospheric warming / SSW which has the potential to lead to colder weather for us and we are already seeing some hints of this among the GEFS, yes the question still remains will it be a split warming after the initial displacement, hard to say given the split (no pun intended) within the models but possibly the GFS will fall in line within the next few days and also show a split. GFS 18z 6h chart 

   gfsnh-10-6.thumb.png.9c1a761acb54548d0d438c985df8fd18.png we have had winters where we would have loved to see this kind of chart within 100h never mind within 24h  

and for the people saying some of the charts are flat etc look out for the high building over / close to the UK as this could be the key player at our first shot at colder weather in January with the potential for it to move to a more favourable position ie Greenland, Iceland , Scandi or a combo of the three

gfsnh-0-252.thumb.png.d08a9fea34debee301fec1cc155924a0.pnggfsnh-0-324.thumb.png.ee606f6fb3ba14cbf2d83e5dfad8c85e.png 

2. POTENTIAL - where does the potential lie within the current charts? as mentioned above the GEFS look like they are starting to pick up on a / the signal for our first shot at colder weather as we head into the second week of January, keep an eye on this signal growing as we head towards new year's day, hard to say at the moment  whether it will be from a northerly or an easterly direction (possibly northerly first then perhaps into an easterly) and also keep an eye on the GEFS to hopefully see them firming up on a split warming after the displacement event.

3. PATIENCE - this is possibly the most important out of the 3, given the stratospheric warming there could be the potential for a fast response to be shown within the models or it could take some time for the possible effects to start being shown. And I can understand the disappointment because we are not going to end up with a white Christmas (although some could see a white Christmas of a different kind with some frost)  but this is a great position to be in for potential cold / snowy weather in the new year and we have endured some winters where we would have given anything to have any kind of wintry charts to start showing within the output.

3Ps-To-Achieve-Goals.jpg.289e7c557a1d31cf217b3aa17d344252.jpg

And of course there is always the potential for us not to end up on the cold side of things but whatever the outcome this will be a fascinating period of weather / chart watching and it is at times like these that are the reason why I love weather! 

ps anybody having a guess when the first BOOM chart(s) will appear? I will go for the GEFS 12z 27th December 

now off to see what the 18z GEFS are showing....

 

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Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL

T218hrs to T240 hrs

A clockwise rotation from the 1048mb high pressure quite something tbh.

A lot of mince pies and cold turkey sandwiches to go yet" but positive potential 

Sub zero nights close to freezing by day.

It's movement East would be interesting. 

19010118_2318.gif

19010218_2318.gif

Edited by sorepaw1
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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire

The thing is as well the ECM clusters haven’t updated for a few days so no one can access them , so you can’t really get a feel of what is showing on days 10 to 15 . 

Edited by ICE COLD
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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
18 minutes ago, Don said:

So the ECM strat forecast has trended towards the GFS?

No, just to clarify, I was commenting purely on the trop modelling.

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
10 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Oh yes.

Diagramme GEFS

ditto

graphe3_1001___-3.16202_56.10878_.thumb.gif.d0e9d93f052dd20a72c5177ade1aabd4.gifgraphe3_1000___-3.16202_56.10878_.thumb.gif.300ae82b0f358e90e75a798839983cd0.gif1d6f4f55af2f26c045dd3b7004ba59fb--snow-days-winter-wonderland.jpg.ab6222ef861ba88fd93d96b28b0de4a8.jpgbucket.thumb.jpg.fd1bd63c3e95c70ab66a7d72bf94df24.jpg  

gensnh-1-1-264.thumb.png.16c439f483cf6ee741df7c8ff129c96d.pnggens-5-0-360.thumb.png.5ff141b83381b2a09b151f3d1220bdcd.pnggens-5-2-348.thumb.png.6061702bf941bbce5d1ccb91f9d1fcdd.pnggensnh-7-5-300.thumb.png.3cebe6f6771431d8ec8bf64570d88fa2.png  

tempresult_edx9.thumb.gif.1474d7de621e5a3c736814217425cb9c.gif

tempresult_ehg4.thumb.gif.125fad64d8b4df1f9ba714de888b0218.gifgensnh-8-0-336.thumb.png.5a6fa4140cc0b2dda0d64d9e238a7ee6.pnggens-18-0-300.thumb.png.5badbf38844b073c4a56b94a15b81384.png 

gensnh-20-0-348.thumb.png.b57ff9cd6f0119e0492439024c095761.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: warwick 74m. asl
  • Weather Preferences: WHITE GOLD
  • Location: warwick 74m. asl

Right guys having not covered myself in glory this morning with Estelle!!! And the weather outside today I have tried to explain the up and coming weather But you know what.......we are always in the sh## it’s just the depth that veries !!

foz.

Edited by Fozfoster
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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
30 minutes ago, SPEEDYTOAST said:

What are everyone's thoughts on the start of Jan.

 

Hard to be sure really, but seems like it may start off High Pressure dominated, especially towards Southern UK - models showing various themes of this. Then (hopefully) as the Stratospheric warming starts working its way further down in the atmosphere, it’ll cripple the Tropospheric Vortex - maybe even ripping the troublemaker into two main chunks (splitting it), and allow High Pressure around the UK area to get scooped up further North and become a High Latitude Block. Thus sending the Jetstream on a Southerly track. This would probably take till mid-January to see the effects of this with colder conditions flooding in from the North or East.

I’m guessing the rest of January would remain cold and blocked. High Latitude Blocks can, but not always, be hard to budge once they set up favourably to the North-West/North/North-East of the UK. (But admittedly the idea of the second half of January being cold and blocked is too far out for me to make any proper judgements. And the fact that it’s crucial to push and/or split a weakened Polar Vortex in a desirable place. Without that happening, there’s a risk of the cold weather fans ending up in the wrong area of any blocking High Pressure for chilly and snowy weather). 

Well, this is what we’re hoping anyway. But, for now, it’s probably the most likely solution for January. 

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Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland

Some not unsubtle changes on the GFS 00z and the UKMO this morning by new years.

 

gfs-0-174.png

 

More amplified and less energy through the GIN corridor. Might not be enough on this occasion but interesting none the less. Something to build on.

Edited by The Eagle
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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
5 hours ago, weatherguy said:

Can't really add too much that hasn't been explained brilliantly by Catacol.  

Just want to highlight this though; though the ops are pretty bland in nature out into FI, it's worth noting what is not forecast but is actually occurring NOW:

gfsnh-10-6.png?18

The stratospheric vortex is taking an almighty beating as we speak...I mean, that above chart is a thing of beauty.  Wherever we go from here, it will be fascinating seeing the response to this at the tropospheric level over the coming weeks...

Indeed see this as at 06:00 today

Screenshot_20181224-064558.png

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Some interest at day 9 on the ec op ..... could possibly end up with a very split NH at day 10 with at least two WAA events and some impressive arctic highs floating about 

Day 10 could be better I guess but as an indication of direction of travel it seems ok re other output and ens guidance 

Edited by bluearmy
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Posted
  • Location: Isle of Lewis
  • Weather Preferences: Sun in summer, snow in winter, wind in Autumn and rainbows in the spring!
  • Location: Isle of Lewis

If there is one image that paints the picture of uncertainty in the models created by this SSW,

It would be this one. Note the GFS Operational and the GEFS control are outliers running warmer than the mean. 

t850Aberdeenshire.png

We really cannot make any reasoned  judgements past Christmas day!  Expect big upgrades (cold) in the next 5days or so. 

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
16 minutes ago, Ladyofthestorm said:

If there is one image that paints the picture of uncertainty in the models created by this SSW,

It would be this one. Note the GFS Operational and the GEFS control are outliers running warmer than the mean. 

t850Aberdeenshire.png

We really cannot make any reasoned  judgements past Christmas day!  Expect big upgrades (cold) in the next 5days or so. 

That is one messy chart, hopefully something happens that firms up a rough direction of travel as this forum seems to of had enough of chasing cold. It is however still to early to see SSW fallout, I just hope it’s positive for when it does happen. METO long range still suggests mid Jan, does that mean they think Downwelling will take 3 weeks or is something else showing up , not sure

Time to enjoy Xmas and wait for those BOOOOOM charts, I feel they are in Santa’s Sack somewhere!! 

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
8 hours ago, Catacol said:

I'm still disappointed by what happened last week - had that trough cleared off to the east I think our mid lat UK high would have built higher and more to the west and we would be cooling down now. It was a close run thing - but it was only the starter with the main course very much to come and not negatively impacted at all by the current holding phase. 

Agree with this totally.  It was close.  Re the runs not giving much at the moment....true but should change over coming days and at least we have a distraction to enjoy until that happens 

BFTP

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