Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

[northwestsnow]

GFS is getting better strat - wise..

[ICE COLD]

Getting there in FI tho . 

[GeordieX9v]

Surely not too difficult to get the cold in from there.

[ICE COLD]

Just now, evans1892 said:

Surely not too difficult to get the cold in from there.

Yep brutal cold in Europe ?

[northwestsnow]

Need to be seeing more of this FI in the coming days -

GFS also splits the vortex late on ...

Slightly better end to another difficult day for coldies-

At least the rain has now stopped, thats a relief..

 

[Purga]

This is not the first time that this scenario has shown up in FI

NH profile

GFS is often quite canny at picking up the longer term signals.

Anyway - merry Christmas all....

 

[ALL ABOARD]

You couldn't make it up though could you on this run... 

Most of the artic spills into europe and would probably end up with you being able to skate from Norway to Greece yet we would all be sitting in our gardens with a jacket sipping magheritas and watching new ice caps form across the pond. 

Great watching tho

[snowfish1]

28 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I feel like coldies in here have gone ten rounds with Tyson at his best !

Its like Groundhog Day , you wake up check the outputs limpet high in charge , go to bed get up rinse and repeat !

 

I still. Maintain its because the event has not happened yet so its almost like a default synoptic pattern lol

[Don]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS is getting better strat - wise..

What’s the latest on the ECM strat 12z?

Edited December 23, 2018 by Don

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS is getting better strat - wise..

Yes, i am actually starting to think that the vortex is going to get displaced east again and lets just give up on a split, we could have a Second half of Jan dominated by a Greenland high, then worry about further attacks on the vortex to get the Scandinavian high in feb, traditionally the best month and most common one, the one danger though although, if the vortex keeps getting displaced from one side to another, just as a good pattern is setting up, it could end up displaced to the wrong position, where with a split SSW it is always more stable.

[Catacol]

Something is brewing....something perhaps not easily seen right now from NWP operational output. Take a look at the extremity of the most recent mountain torque atmospheric deceleration:

Temporarily down to -4SD...with all torques hammering low. In layman's terms what this does as you can see from the negative tendency around 30N is enhance net easterlies and prop up the mid latitude high - and we have our UK mid lat high. 

So what happens next? With GLAAM tumbling there has to be a counter in the wings as earth and atmosphere continue their ongoing attempt to have earth and atmospheric momentum balance out at 0. Torques prevent this from ever happening for long - and as the atmosphere has slowed at 30N it for sure will come bouncing back up, and on schedule as per previous posts. We can expect to see a rally in MT in the next few days - and perhaps another strong one. We have seen plenty of steep gradients this season.

So - imagine a burst of westerly momentum sent through the pacific and on into the Atlantic with our block sat where it is...and now factor in the ongoing pressure on the strat and increasing likelihood of a split. As momentum comes into the atlantic I can see only one impact - and this is the bouncing of this high pressure anomaly up to a higher latitude. And with the vortex collapse imminent this then becomes a pattern that will take some shifting - the block may wax and wane through much of January, but it will become a semi permanent feature. How quickly the vortex recovers (if at all) will determine specific longevity...but as said before: baby steps. Let's see what actually happens to the vortex before getting too excited (at least publicly...…..)

And so pacific forcing, with the MJO moving towards phase 6-7-8, set to give a tropospheric lead to the pattern before stratospheric reinforcements arrive.

Don't be seduced by the current bland holding pattern. Last week the pacific failed to produce a high lat block in a nearly scenario from the last MT spike - but we were dealing with a deep trough to the west that was unable to progress east. It is a very different atlantic profile developing now, and the impact looks set to be much more predictable. Provided there is an active pacific background signal and a strat under stress there is nothing at all wrong with a growing UK/Euro high...but a little more patience required. Look for the block to begin to extend north as stage 1. Stage 2 will be invigoration of the Euro trough that will replace it - and if the strat splits as the EC is seeing it then expect it to be a vigorous undercut. Downwelling impacts 1 - 3 weeks...so core of the cold potential continues to be weeks 2 - 4 of January. Anything beyond that in the timeline will depend on how badly the vortex gets beaten up and caution required on predicting that.

Very exciting times ahead....

Edited December 23, 2018 by Catacol

[SLEETY]

So the high retrogresses then just as the bitter air is going to hit U.K. the high decides to move the other way lol

 

No wonfder the meto only have a cursory glance at the model I remember Ian fergusson mentioning before

[markw2680]

This place at times unreal.

yes it all looks quite shocking atm but the models could quite easily just flip and at short notice too, we have seen it before, they haven’t a clue about this ssw at the mo and as soon as the signal starts getting picked up they will flip.

that lovely thing called PATIENCE is key here I’m afraid.

pretty much all the experts and long range forecasts etc say early to mid jan for winter from what I’ve seen so......

[ZK099]

Interesting GFS 18z op. Deep, deep cold out in Europe, first time I've seen it that deep, that close to our shores. Any easterlies thereafter would be extremely potent. 

Obviously we're not looking at individual op runs at this point, but let's hope it's a trend. Definitely not a bad thing to cool down Europe before we get any easterly winds developing. 

Edited December 23, 2018 by ZK099

[Mokidugway]

Not much to look forward  to other than Christmas  and New year ,which I'm sure will help fill the void in the hearts of cold lovers , im sure that deep winter will deliver somthing 

Edited December 23, 2018 by Mokidugway

[Ladyofthestorm]

Get a feeling the models have yet to take into account the effects of the SSW. January looks very very cold. 

[feb1991blizzard]

6 minutes ago, Catacol said:

We can expect to see a rally in MT in the next few days - and perhaps another strong one.

Does this mean an East asian one and one that could properly finish the Strat vortex off for good this winter?

[blizzard81]

3 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

This place at times unreal.

yes it all looks quite shocking atm but the models could quite easily just flip and at short notice too, we have seen it before, they haven’t a clue about this ssw at the mo and as soon as the signal starts getting picked up they will flip.

that lovely thing called PATIENCE is key here I’m afraid.

pretty much all the experts and long range forecasts etc say early to mid jan for winter from what I’ve seen so......

'unreal' ? Really? People just airing differing opinions? Isn't that just the way of the world? I find your post dramatic to say the least lol.

[northwestsnow]

7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, i am actually starting to think that the vortex is going to get displaced east again and lets just give up on a split, we could have a Second half of Jan dominated by a Greenland high, then worry about further attacks on the vortex to get the Scandinavian high in feb, traditionally the best month and most common one, the one danger though although, if the vortex keeps getting displaced from one side to another, just as a good pattern is setting up, it could end up displaced to the wrong position, where with a split SSW it is always more stable.

Even in the GFS scenario the core vortex getting shoved off the Pole is never a bad thing,we can see on 18z the core deep purples have been removed from Eastern Canada and Greenland , this with zonal winds decreasing, hopefully will see a slowing down of the energy hurtling across the Atlantic..

Thats my hope, guess we have to see,but at the moment i would like to see some evidence appearing in day 10 plus charts, and it sounds like eps have trended the other way..

[Catacol]

2 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

This place at times unreal.

yes it all looks quite shocking atm but the models could quite easily just flip and at short notice too, we have seen it before, they haven’t a clue about this ssw at the mo and as soon as the signal starts getting picked up they will flip.

that lovely thing called PATIENCE is key here I’m afraid.

pretty much all the experts and long range forecasts etc say early to mid jan for winter from what I’ve seen so......

This is not the limpet Euro high reinforced by a Nina pattern, strong vortex and low pacific activity that some posters earlier today seem to think it is. Totally different beast. The problem with NWP output is that it only shows the effect and not the causes.....and unless we try and understand the causes we cannot really see the path ahead. Try not to pay much attention to those who simply paste a chart without an explanation or any obvious understanding.

An examination of causation - and every reason to be optimistic continues. I'm still disappointed by what happened last week - had that trough cleared off to the east I think our mid lat UK high would have built higher and more to the west and we would be cooling down now. It was a close run thing - but it was only the starter with the main course very much to come and not negatively impacted at all by the current holding phase. 

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Even in the GFS scenario the core vortex getting shoved off the Pole is never a bad thing,we can see on 18z the core deep purples have been removed from Eastern Canada and Greenland , this with zonal winds decreasing, hopefully will see a slowing down of the energy hurtling across the Atlantic..

Thats my hope, guess we have to see,but at the moment i would like to see some evidence appearing in day 10 plus charts, and it sounds like eps have trended the other way..

The eps are a little worrisome to say the least.

[WeatherModelMan]

2 minutes ago, Ladyofthestorm said:

Get a feeling the models have yet to take into account the effects of the SSW. January looks very very cold. 

It isn't even guaranteed for this likely SSW. We will have to see.

[snowfish1]

Already covered this one yes enjoy Christmas it's not until first week Jan the fun and games begin 

[Scandinavian High.]

Happy Christmas everyone very interesting later on gfs cooler day by day very cold to the east of uk. didn’t some of the very cold spells in the past have high pressure  drifting around uk so uk high  might be boring to most but could be key to much colder weather later on..

Edited December 23, 2018 by abbie123

[markw2680]

3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

'unreal' ? Really? People just airing differing opinions? Isn't that just the way of the world? I find your post dramatic to say the least lol.

Lol yeah perhaps unreal was a bit strong.

im just as irritated as the rest of us on here atm but I’m quite confident of something very good lurking just frustrating