Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

[Simon SWales]

13 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

I came back on here tonight hoping to see some positivity. (I shouldn't really, I've been here long enough to know how it works), yet we are in the midst of a December SSW, a very rare beast. It could and should, give us the winter we've been waiting for, for years. It might not... however, we are in the best position we've been in for years. The models are struggling with an outcome and it's a fact that an SSW will play havoc with numerical weather prediction. We (My family) are losing our home on the 7th January. We will be ok somehow. One of our Netweather members has just been given the all clear from cancer. Is it really worth any animosity over the weather? Something which is out of our control?

 It's Christmas eve tomorrow, real winter weather is coming (allegedly at some point...)

Just enjoy the hunt for cold and have a merry Christmas.... 

We went through exactly the same situation 4 years ago, same day too. Thoughts are with you and your family. Only consolation I can give is it is only bricks and mortar. Hope all works out for you.

[snowray]

50 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

FV3 strat at end of run still not anywhere near the expected split:

Think this one is dunk your hobnobs rather than smell the coffee...

Is this not a split on the FV3?

[northwestsnow]

Not convinced its been a great day today, hopefully 18z improves from its 12z run and the models begin factoring in these zonal wind decreases soon..

[Methuselah]

51 minutes ago, aitchbomb said:

It’s the schadenfreude that accompanies posts from the same old suspects who incidentally, also do their best to be first to post gloating posts indicating mild weather as earlier as possible in the morning 

I seldom come on here before nine in the morning, and I've never seen the early-bird schadenfreude posts of which you speak; either because they don't bother me or there aren't any...? Either way, the weather will do whatever it'll do, and doesn't need permission from any NWPM?

It's Yuletide for goodness sake...Just enjoy it. Whatever the weather!?

 

Edited December 23, 2018 by Ed Stone

[bobbydog]

4 minutes ago, Simon SWales said:

We went through exactly the same situation 4 years ago, same day too. Thoughts are with you and your family. Only consolation I can give is it is only bricks and mortar. Hope all works out for you.

Thanks mate, if it comes to it, I've got 2 decent family sized tents in storage-  that'll teach the kids some survival skills!  

[frosty ground]

18 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Not convinced its been a great day today, hopefully 18z improves from its 12z run and the models begin factoring in these zonal wind decreases soon..

Surely the same models that predict something should in turn be able to make a prediction based on that prediction 

[Duane S.]

11 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I seldom come on here before nine in the morning, and I've never seen the early-bird schadenfreude posts of which you speak; either because they don't bother me or there aren't any...? Either way, the weather will do whatever it'll do, and doesn't need permission from any NWPM?

It's Yuletide for goodness sake...Just enjoy it. Whatever the weather!?

 

I disagree and agree.

Unfortunately schadenfreude posts absolutely do exist (albeit, they are relatively few and far between), not everybody will be able to see them for what they are..

I’ll leave that there though, as you quite rightly say, it’s the festive  season and a weather forum, not a psychologists convention

[edo]

i love the snow and cant wait to see some snowy charts but in the meantime current conditions here are all cars completely frozen over... every surface white as if it has snowed and all the muddy paths are now crisp making walking the dog far more pleasant.... we all have our likes and dislikes but this is lovely 2nd prize winter weather in this area if you cant have snow... so this chart imo actually provides some lovely winter weather holding pattern weather 

[nick sussex]

The lack of posts sums up the GFS18hrs run .

Pretty dire so far with the PV relentless and upstream flat as a pancake . If this was a boxing match we’d be throwing in the towel to spare further punishment !

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, nick sussex said:

The lack of posts sums up the GFS18hrs run .

Pretty dire so far with the PV relentless and upstream flat as a pancake . If this was a boxing match we’d be throwing in the towel to spare further punishment !

Watched Dillion Whyte last night, would rather watched warrington Frampton but but had to watch Whyte for betting reasons.

[blizzard81]

3 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

On balance, I think the last 24 hours output is slightly negative.  ECM T240 leaves a situation that could promote blocking when the SSW does it's stuff, so that's OK, T240:

ECM strat has reversal at T192 now at 10mb, but re reversal by T240 at 1 mb:

GEFS also less keen to take the reverse zonal winds negative for very long, as posted earlier.

Starting to think outcome might be very similar to Jan 2013, very cold and snowy week mid month, but that might be about it.  Hope I'm wrong, and it is a more significant cold spell than that, but have to tell it as I see it.

And of course should note that is based on a snapshot of runs over 24 hours and could, and probably will, change tomorrow in a very volatile situation!

 

I agree. To be honest I have been feeling the same for a few days now. I feel we will have a modest cold spell in mid Jan akin to Jan 09. Not much more than that. Next winter for me for the fun and games.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

The lack of posts sums up the GFS18hrs run .

Pretty dire so far with the PV relentless and upstream flat as a pancake . If this was a boxing match we’d be throwing in the towel to spare further punishment !

Its tough isn't it!!
Fraid it looks like EC was too amplified 00z- and a rather sobering post by MWB in the other model thread..

Not seen any EC strat charts so not sure how eps look in that regard, hoping to see some chinks of light into FI , soon!

[CanadaAl]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The lack of posts sums up the GFS18hrs run .

Pretty dire so far with the PV relentless and upstream flat as a pancake . If this was a boxing match we’d be throwing in the towel to spare further punishment !

I wouldn't say flat as a pancake. High pressure in charge for the foreseeable. I can't really find cause to complain. We could be seeing 950mb lows coming our way

[nick sussex]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Watched Dillion Whyte last night, would rather watched warrington Frampton but but had to watch Whyte for betting reasons.

I feel like coldies in here have gone ten rounds with Tyson at his best !

Its like Groundhog Day , you wake up check the outputs limpet high in charge , go to bed get up rinse and repeat !

 

[blizzard81]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The lack of posts sums up the GFS18hrs run .

Pretty dire so far with the PV relentless and upstream flat as a pancake . If this was a boxing match we’d be throwing in the towel to spare further punishment !

Must admit. There is nothing positive at all with the output at the moment. 

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Must admit. There is nothing positive at all with the output at the moment. 

If it wasn’t for at least the SSW and some movement in the MJO I would already be stockpiling the Prozac !

 

[blizzard81]

The problem we have is the omni-present low coming out of north east Canada. These are not modelled as cut off lows unfortunately so they just trundle eastwards cutting off any chance of a Greenland height rise.

[northwestsnow]

Well 18z is not as bad as the 12z but that wouldn't be difficult, the profile to the NW better- not sure but this one might produce some Atlantic retrogression later on..

[Met4Cast]

Is this Net-Weather or have I accidentally stumbled into "miserable gits anomalous"?

The ensembles are a complete mess out in FI though one thing is clear, there is a growing number of colder members. The second week of January is where the interest lies, outside the range of the models. 

Anything we see before then will be a bonus. If you're expecting to see Narnia charts across all outputs at this stage then no wonder a majority of you are reaching for the valium. Patience. It's all about trends.

Major Strat warming under-way. Expecting the models to know the fallout from that at a 2 week+ lead is like asking a blind man to pain a Van Goth. 

Ignore individual op runs at range. Focus on ensemble means. (for once)

Edited December 23, 2018 by Daniel Smith

[Duane S.]

I can understand the annoyance, the ops are hardly inspiring at at the moment.

But with what is going on in the upper atmosphere and impending increased Pacific forcing, change is a coming and when it comes it’ll more than likely happen fast and be striking.

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I feel like coldies in here have gone ten rounds with Tyson at his best !

Its like Groundhog Day , you wake up check the outputs limpet high in charge , go to bed get up rinse and repeat !

 

I dont't think its that bad going into the second half of winter though, in fact i am almost certain we will see some favourable patterns develop at some point during this winter, we  are in the best position since 12/13 for the second half of winter and probably only about 3/4 other winters this century looked better hemispherically / stratospherically at this date, even if the split is half baked and we don't get the distance between the 2 lobes to produce a tropospheric Scandinavian high, it still looks like it might displace towards the Siberian sector again, and would leave it open to further attacks from below or above.

[WeatherModelMan]

absolutely rubbish. 

Edited December 23, 2018 by WeatherModelMan

[blizzard81]

No appetite on the ext ecm ens for debilt for anything remotely wintry. 

[CanadaAl]

2 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

I can understand the annoyance, the ops are hardly inspiring at at the moment.

But with what is going on in the upper atmosphere and impending increased Pacific forcing, change is a coming and when it comes it’ll more than likely happen fast and be striking.

I think you're right but a lot of people aren't buying it and seem to think it'll be like this until the end of Feb. It's easy to get gloomy but there's a lot around the corner

[GeordieX9v]

I've seen worse....