Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
5 minutes ago, Banbury said:

To be perfectly honest Bro, the above adds nothing to the discussion either, at the time of posting GFS was out to 180 and UKMO was complete at 144 - timeframes when nothing is expected .

“Longer term who knows?”. I was commenting on the short to medium term only.  We know there is no ‘nirvana cold’ per se in that timeframe but when compared to this morning’s ECM which showed widespread frosty nights and day times highs of 3/4C on the 28th/29th a step back.  Yes, it’s possible this morning’s ECM was an outlier but heyho.

Edited by mulzy
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
2 minutes ago, IDO said:

The problem is it is flatter than the 06z run, compare:

gfsnh-0-234.thumb.png.0d38e301e259fa15675f2c34f67e74ab.pnggfsnh-0-228.thumb.png.e4e82da3aa9a0f97a0bade2af9367512.pnggfsnh-0-264.thumb.png.7ac59c32df0a52f09927f69f9af8235e.png

The Pacific Ridge is flatter than the 06z. This means that the Atlantic trough on the 12z is stronger so the next wave goes under rather than cut through the trough. That was the trigger for Atlantic heights and the migration west of the UK high! So big changes by D11 and further delays...

...Its a surprise as the background signals are to the contrary.

LOL..

GFS still doesnt think there will be a split...

Think i for one will ignore its outputs for the timebeing!!

Of course EC could be wrong.. if it is think i will give up with it.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

We need Indiana Jones!

The key to unlock the cold is in the Ark of the Covenant!

The output is wretched , this mornings ECM was positively 62/63 compared to tonights Freddie Kruger special from the rest .

I’d be surprised if the ECM righted the ship as the others have now found more complications upstream within T144hrs .

The only bright spot is the outputs couldn’t get any worse and the MJO is making more progress towards phase 6 . We need out of phase 5 as quickly as possible .

 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Snow showers on the hills of Northwest Scotland, on January 4th...

I do hope I'm not upsetting anyone's 'delicate constitution' by posting this...? It is what it is! And, contrary to what some folks like to think, there's plenty room for reporting what the models say...Not merely for saying what other peeps might want to hear...

Netweather GFS Image

Sorry, I guess we'll have to bin this one: Netweather GFS Image

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

Alternative take on UKMO 12z: Canadian lows weakening past day 4, day 6 about to inflate heights further north again via the UK as a trough drops down by the Azores.

As for the GFS 12z, I really can't be bothered as I've rarely seen a run make as little sense in all layers of the atmosphere.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
1 minute ago, Stonethecrows said:

Sadly the same could be said about your incessant mild ramping in a cold weather thread

LOL - me a mild ramper!?!

I am Yamkin’s little brother!

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

image.thumb.jpg.353da40af752f8e2f3ef78ddf4dc3a80.jpg

GFS 12z strat T384.  

Best not to take that too seriously at the mo, GFS not covering its self in glory with this one.  Meanwhile, today's GEFS zonal winds:

image.thumb.jpg.5c47737fd946fa64d4ccabda36212425.jpg

Reversal moved back about 24 hours today, so edging towards ECM, longevity of reversal looks slightly worse today, I would suggest.

Edited by Mike Poole
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
14 minutes ago, mulzy said:

LOL - me a mild ramper!?!

I am Yamkin’s little brother!

I’d say you just said it as it is tbh. ?‍♂️

I didn’t see you write winter off, just showed your quite rightful disgust at the 12z suite thus far. 

Im off to GIN corridor to forget about it and move on lol 

Edited by karlos1983
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
11 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Snow showers on the hills of Northwest Scotland, on January 4th...

I do hope I'm not upsetting anyone's 'delicate constitution' by posting this...? It is what it is! And, contrary to what some folks like to think, there's plenty room for reporting what the models say...Not merely for saying what other peeps might want to hear...

Netweather GFS Image

Sorry, I guess we'll have to bin this one: Netweather GFS Image

Shame on you ed Talkin current output!!!we could talk about my team swfc winning the championship but that would be Fi.anyway here's to a cold new year ete if it arrives 

Edited by swfc
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Gloucester
  • Weather Preferences: Snow that settles then freezes!
  • Location: Gloucester
1 hour ago, The Eagle said:

UW144-21.GIF?23-17

As you were on the UKMO day 6. Or "weapons grade depression" as it's also known  

That’s at least 8 days before the colder weather is expected. 

Edited by Mapantz
Moving on...
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.

The problem at the moment is that we are entering the calm period before things kick off in the new year. So we find ourselves in a kind of limbo waiting for the NWP to really get a handle on matters closer to the surface than the strat.

Hence the more impatient among us start feel a bit tetchy.

I'm reminded of GP's words a couple weeks back regarding the period approaching new year which was to ignore any Nwp that doesn't raise hieghts to our North or Northwest. 

All the background signals suggest that this will be a jeckyll and Hyde winter or a winter of two Half's. At the moment we are going through the half that none of us in this thread wants to be in.

But we shouldn't let this take our eyes off the prize. Everything comes to those who wait ,as last winter proved. I saw more snow between Feb 26th and March 18th 2018 than in the previous seven years put together. This year we have the very real likely good of things starting in Mid January rather like a certain legendary winter of the past.  

Edited by Broadmayne blizzard
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Well.. none of the output this evening looks anything like the EC 00z run ...

Lets see what EC conjurs up and i include the strat in those comments.

I'm not concerned .. 

I might be if EC backs away from the split PV but for now ...

( Gfs 12 was horrendous though in the interests of fairness)..

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

Can’t post individual ensembles but looking at the GFS day 10 panel, they are LOADED with potential, there’s some crappy ones as to be expected but the trend is continuing, I do understand the dispondency from some but if you just accept it’s a waiting game this winter it becomes a lot less frustrating.

 

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

Can’t post individual ensembles but looking at the GFS day 10 panel, they are LOADED with potential, there’s some crappy ones as to be expected but the trend is continuing, I do understand the dispondency from some but if you just accept it’s a waiting game this winter it becomes a lot less frustrating.

 

D10 panel:

gens_panel_vpo9.png

UK high dominant!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
3 minutes ago, IDO said:

D10 panel:

gens_panel_vpo9.png

UK high dominant!

Mixed bag i would say, no clear route map forward looking at those, some loaded with potential, some loaded with cow dung.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

 

5 minutes ago, IDO said:

D10 panel:

gens_panel_vpo9.png

UK high dominant!

Fair amount of Azores lows and low pressure in the med, and lots with displacement of the high to the west. All about potential at this range, with the strat warming assisting the situation anything is possible.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    More rain on the way: Storm Nelson brings gales Thursday, but rain and wind easing for Easter

    Spells of rain or showers with sunshine in between affecting most areas today, snow over northern hills. Storm Nelson arrives tomorrow, bringing gales to southern coasts and windy elsewhere with further showers. Showers and wind easing somewhat into the Easter Weekend. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-27 09:35:27 Valid: 27/03/2024 0900 - 28/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - WEDS 27 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...