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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Stuie Experienced

Stuie

Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
Posted (edited)
30 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

I'm taking a break from all things weather until the 27th but i'll leave with this. The 6z run is almost a carbon copy in the later timeframes to the extended EPS

EXT.thumb.png.7959639c8543a81ba7411ca1c58966cf.pnggfsnh-0-348.thumb.png.4d10a7ec0b3a30855d17647cfd34995d.png

Overnight 00z GEFS trending colder in FI, I'd expect to see that continue on the 6z run. Everything is going along nicely, don't be surprised to see that Mid-Block become a High-Lat block on a few runs. Time to watch this next period of cold weather trickle down into the reliable.

Have a great Christmas everyone!

Perfect, Daniel. Shows the Atlantic ridge which I thought was very plausible to the NW.

EDIT: My musings on page 70

Edited by Stuie W
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bobbydog Maestro

bobbydog

Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
Posted

Having looked through the final frames of the GEFS, it seems our main choices are snow, a monster storm or both at the same time...

gensnh-4-1-384.thumb.png.deed5dacc8a9b4fc70ce45ecf16c2ba8.png

gensnh-17-1-384-1.thumb.png.333088290dde7dbd10cbdb63ddb6dbc3.png

gensnh-3-1-384.thumb.png.9475997af3b4a342c24f84f85c96afe4.png

 

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Singularity Maestro

Singularity

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
Posted

Great post there @MR EXTREMES.

It may prove significant that undercutting of amplified ridges from the east or northeast is something the models really tend to struggle to spot much in advance.

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johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted (edited)

To digress for a moment in the hunt for cold-the thread from Shuggee, re the GFS predictions for Xmas Day, worth a look.

Apart from some differences in the first 3 frames or so, it has, not unlike the one I did for today, been remarkably consistent in its prediction of a high, from a southern origin, to be the dominant weather feature for the day itself. So the 12z seems over this past 2 weeks to have been a pretty good guide to the weather for this weekend and at least the start of the week ahead!

link=

 

Edited by johnholmes
adding link
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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted
4 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

Having looked through the final frames of the GEFS, it seems our main choices are snow, a monster storm or both at the same time...

gensnh-4-1-384.thumb.png.deed5dacc8a9b4fc70ce45ecf16c2ba8.png

gensnh-17-1-384-1.thumb.png.333088290dde7dbd10cbdb63ddb6dbc3.png

gensnh-3-1-384.thumb.png.9475997af3b4a342c24f84f85c96afe4.png

 

Good start to the New Year fitness regime then

8D8438C9-04C9-4D10-AF9A-D6A5336C054F.thumb.jpeg.e1f3fc662a352ebc7edf39da08fd23d2.jpeg

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Stuie Experienced

Stuie

Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
Posted
10 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

Having looked through the final frames of the GEFS, it seems our main choices are snow, a monster storm or both at the same time...

gensnh-4-1-384.thumb.png.deed5dacc8a9b4fc70ce45ecf16c2ba8.png

gensnh-17-1-384-1.thumb.png.333088290dde7dbd10cbdb63ddb6dbc3.png

gensnh-3-1-384.thumb.png.9475997af3b4a342c24f84f85c96afe4.png

 

For those who would like to see the 850 temps for those charts:

 

gens-4-0-384.png

gens-17-0-384.png

gens-3-0-384.png

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markw2680 Accomplished

markw2680

Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
Posted

I would welcome this with open arms.

can you imagine if something like this was the actual outcome 

8C1CC92B-AF28-420F-9DA3-E2199405A905.png

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Stuie Experienced

Stuie

Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
Posted
Just now, prolongedSnowLover said:

Not a bad set of ensembles for 6z with a growing number of members going under -5c from the 3rd Jan!

7DED315E-EB4F-4A28-A56B-A6A1D6D38AB4.png

Nice, that looks 60/40 weighted towards cold.

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Minnizi Contributor

Minnizi

Posted
  • Location: Bromborough WIRRAL
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold, hot sunny summer's and autumn storms
  • Location: Bromborough WIRRAL
Posted
3 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

I would welcome this with open arms.

can you imagine if something like this was the actual outcome 

8C1CC92B-AF28-420F-9DA3-E2199405A905.png

Can't Imagine but i can dream. Would be amazing though 

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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted

What's going on with the Icelandic site? Have we lost the Clusters now? I really hope not, they were a great source! 

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted (edited)

Not a bad finish to the Para: snowportunty knocks!

Netweather GFS Image:santa-emoji: image.png.1f284119c709d0bf383d015b255e6a1b.png

Edited by Ed Stone
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mulzy Accomplished

mulzy

Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
Posted
19 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

I would welcome this with open arms.

can you imagine if something like this was the actual outcome 

8C1CC92B-AF28-420F-9DA3-E2199405A905.png

Windy and nasty sleet showers.  No thanks.

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted

EC ens getting there.. 

BBCBF287-17AC-4531-B66B-9A5BC4049A2A.thumb.gif.d4bf5046e8d33348f131c6a686ed3e28.gif

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Weathizard Accomplished

Weathizard

Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
Posted

I honestly feel, somewhere/many places at mid latitude in the northern hemisphere are going to have a historic phase of weather during January, you don’t see charts like those ensembles very often and with the SSW deep cold will soon be flooding into our lattitudes.

Whether we get lucky or not is another question, knowing our luck Greece will be under -15 uppers and have a mini ice age and we’ll be left empty handed  

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mulzy Accomplished

mulzy

Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

EC ens getting there.. 

BBCBF287-17AC-4531-B66B-9A5BC4049A2A.thumb.gif.d4bf5046e8d33348f131c6a686ed3e28.gif

the ECM det. has London highs of 3C and 4C for the 28th and 29th respectively - chilly!

Edited by mulzy
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BlueHedgehog074 Veteran

BlueHedgehog074

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Popular Post
Posted
3 hours ago, Daniel Smith said:

I'm taking a break from all things weather until the 27th but i'll leave with this. The 6z run is almost a carbon copy in the later timeframes to the extended EPS

EXT.thumb.png.7959639c8543a81ba7411ca1c58966cf.pnggfsnh-0-348.thumb.png.4d10a7ec0b3a30855d17647cfd34995d.png

Interestingly, that extended EPS chart looks kinda similar to this analogue/composite chart @Glacier Point posted over a week ago in the Stratosphere Temperature Watch Thread. 

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/88772-stratosphere-temperature-watch-201718/?page=54&tab=comments#comment-3937222

E05765B1-F254-4333-AD58-6D07829D75A9.gif.66fcb025dab9343a1f248a3e91d769f6.gif

Seeing High Pressure developing more to the West of the U.K with possible chillier air filtering down from a Northerly sort of direction seems a plausible route to head in. Especially considering the above. 

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Kirkcaldy Weather Maestro

Kirkcaldy Weather

Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
Posted
22 minutes ago, Minnizi said:

Can't Imagine but i can dream. Would be amazing though 

5698978_your_dreams_will_come_true.thumb.jpg.750d6b8ddc4ae5709de4bc641e16bcaf.jpg  ❄️

tempresult_ivl1.thumb.gif.844a265188c9f803c5e236e5c4f97f70.gif

tempresult_fzl1.thumb.gif.b1722c33615e0725d07c930930e900e5.gif

tempresult_jxz9.thumb.gif.e1a841e089e0fa871298ed9cedf712f2.gif

still looking very interesting and another thing I have noticed is the potential for both the UK / Europe and the northeast of the USA and Canada to get cold / snow at the same time, some of the GEFS are showing this , for anyone who may be heading out that way for New Year of if anyone has friends / relatives over in those areas.

gensnh-19-0-372.thumb.png.b764de1cad6d3fe9e2f48247424b0249.pnggensnh-14-0-300.thumb.png.27a4a587b94b5622f6aff46ed2db2989.pnggensnh-5-0-324.thumb.png.fd99de8c4122f08f01b31bac03da9db3.pnggensnh-4-0-360.thumb.png.afa7e1ad12b65d41564e53ded15fd70f.pnggensnh-2-0-372.thumb.png.a5dd5e73ff3da1679cea267301e0fceb.png

ensemble graph for New York City 

graphe3_1000___-74.005974_40.712776_.thumb.gif.894e0f46281a7f392c06417470b6faa0.gif  

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

There continues to be an extremely encouraging longer term signal, indeed, even better than yesterday with the words much colder from mid Jan instead of just colder!..subtle but important difference! Potential at this range with no guarantees BUT.all in all, another step in the right direction from the latest models. I think this holding pattern that coldies are currently enduring will bear fruit next month, albeit towards mid Jan onwards!!..merry christmas.:santa-emoji::drunk-emoji:❄️

Edited by Frosty.
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markw2680 Accomplished

markw2680

Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Popular Post
Posted
50 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Windy and nasty sleet showers.  No thanks.

I’d be surprised if it was just sleet showers lol. If you can’t get snow from that in January then I think we may aswel find a new interest 

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted
1 hour ago, karlos1983 said:

Some decent GEFS members

67F1CB21-4A59-4A56-827A-84355CC6D738.thumb.png.ef36a4f8baab5683ec4706cec214cf91.png

Any initial cold outbreak certainly looks like it will come from the north at the moment. 

Or not

81EF4A4C-4CE6-4258-AB8D-D2EECE104DA1.thumb.png.535436469f8ec60d7f4f0416f4d8836b.png

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

I’d be surprised if it was just sleet showers lol. If you can’t get snow from that in January then I think we may aswel find a new interest 

Agreed, it's the height of winter range we are talking about for gawd sake..anyhoo..signs are still excellent longer term..long may it continue!!:santa-emoji:

Edited by Frosty.
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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
1 hour ago, mulzy said:

Windy and nasty sleet showers.  No thanks.

I agree - that’s not a cold core low - uppers not nearly low enough, especially with a nw flow ..... mind you, it would improve a few days later .....

onto the next runs

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MR EXTREMES Experienced

MR EXTREMES

Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
Posted
1 hour ago, mulzy said:

Windy and nasty sleet showers.  No thanks.

Haha yea very detailed accurate post here truly remarkable sleet showers.

Best get the shovels out clear all the sleet away no point for gritters either.

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