Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, snowfish1 said:

I have a feeling over the next 48 hours we shall. I think because of the enormity of the effect that ssw's have it proves indecipherable to the models themselves.  The severity of it and the likely effectd when they havebt even happened yet.....? 

You’d better hope for a quick trop response because I fear we’ll be bored into submission soon.

You are right SSW s can cause models a lot of problems , we’ve seen that in the past . 

[Banbury]

12 minutes ago, swfc said:

Yes nick barring a isolated decent run Friday not s lot to see even at the 10-14 day ATM.

Not sure I agree with that, last nights 18z' GEFS were looking pretty good.

With that in mind I went to bed pleased but I seem to have woken up with a bloody nose , not as good though trending in the right direction but certainly less members smelling ice and snow

[Stuie]

20 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

To say I’m underwhelmed is an understatement !

Apart from the ECM the rest upto day ten are woeful with the limpet high stuck to the south .

The ECM has a better upstream pattern and manages to push the high further ne . Unfortunately there’s no support in the other ops. A few GEFS do though but we’d need to see a move from the other ops today .

 

Thing is Nick, it isn`t a limpet high, it`s decent but orientated the wrong way. Not a million miles away from the cold if the thing would ridge north.

[swfc]

14 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I'm optimistic things are slowly moving in the right direction Nick

The tweet by Matt Hugo suggesting the split on EC this morning is the best yet,it looks huge btw..

NW is the strat profile on EC on metiociel?can't see it either senilaty or my eyes

[bluearmy]

16 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

You’d better hope for a quick trop response because I fear we’ll be bored into submission soon.

You are right SSW s can cause models a lot of problems , we’ve seen that in the past . 

Nick - you are stressing way too early - the models are moving towards the expected solution in a similar way to the late feb one ... eps have had one rum suite but that apart, they head towards the ec 46. The gefs and gems are now headed the same way ......  the holding period could be a lot worse than a mid lat high close by ...... looking back to feb, the gfs fi should catch on more consistently around Xmas day if it’s a strat downwelling wave which proves to bring in the cold. Expect winter to arrive just beyond 7th jan

Edited December 23, 2018 by bluearmy

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, swfc said:

NW is the strat profile on EC on metiociel?can't see it either senilaty or my eyes

MH has tweeted the00z split, the strat data is not available on meteociel..

[Banbury]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Nick - you are stressing way too early - the models are moving towards the expected solution in a similar way to the late feb one ... eps have had one rum suite but that apart, they head towards the ec 46. The gefs and gems are now headed the same way ......  the holding period could be a lot worse than a mid lat high close by ......

That's a fair shout 

 

[thetipster]

Edited December 23, 2018 by thetipster

[northwestsnow]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Nick - you are stressing way too early - the models are moving towards the expected solution in a similar way to the late feb one ... eps have had one rum suite but that apart, they head towards the ec 46. The gefs and gems are now headed the same way ......  the holding period could be a lot worse than a mid lat high close by ...... looking back to feb, the gfs fi should catch on more consistently around Xmas day if it’s a strat downwelling wave which proves to bring in the cold. Expect winter to arrive just beyond 7th jan

I'd go along with that at this juncture Blue..

And, as you correctly say, a mid lat high close by is not a bad way to progress to the desired outcome..

Expecting Exeter to scrub the early Jan unsettled spell, unless this is the Atlantic moving in on a NW/SE axis enabling the heights to build in the North Atlantic behind-

conundrum then is do the heights go north, or north east..Exeter hinting NE towards Scandy..

[Stuie]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I'd go along with that at this juncture Blue..

And, as you correctly say, a mid lat high close by is not a bad way to progress to the desired outcome..

Expecting Exeter to scrub the early Jan unsettled spell, unless this is the Atlantic moving in on a NW/SE axis enabling the heights to build in the North Atlantic behind-

conundrum then is do the heights go north, or north east..Exeter hinting NE towards Scandy..

Can we go slightly NW with it please? Tentative signs of Atlantic ridge.

[bluearmy]

7 minutes ago, Banbury said:

That's a fair shout 

 

Btw, when I refer back to feb, I am speaking about the way the ext ens picked up the amplified pattern at two weeks out on the mean anomolys and counted it down pretty consistently rather than the actual pattern being the same 

[That ECM]

Agreed the output isn’t great yet. However if we get a notable week or two then all this will be forgotten. Plenty of time left and enough to be encouraged about whilst hunting for cold. ECM at t240 is an interesting chart. 

[That ECM]

Some good gefs. Here’s one to help put a on some faces

[Stuie]

This cut off low nearly undercuts the HP and into Iberia (giving Atlantic high) but is modeled to go back the way it came from. If only it would just carry on.

[northwestsnow]

Just now, That ECM said:

Some good gefs. Here’s one to help put a on some faces

Funnily enough thats exactly the type of evolution i have in mind- Core PV kicked off the pole ..

[That ECM]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Funnily enough thats exactly the type of evolution i have in mind- Core PV kicked off the pole ..

Or this

[Stuie]

2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Some good gefs. Here’s one to help put a on some faces

Which is what would happen if that LP does get into Iberia.

[A.J]

49 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

To say I’m underwhelmed is an understatement !

Apart from the ECM the rest upto day ten are woeful with the limpet high stuck to the south .

The ECM has a better upstream pattern and manages to push the high further ne . Unfortunately there’s no support in the other ops. A few GEFS do though but we’d need to see a move from the other ops today .

 

ever thought about a house swap Nick?.....I fancy a week in the SW of France, especially with an easterly feed setting up there and cold T850's knocking on the door.....I'd even throw in some pickled onion monster munch and a dairylea dunkable as a tempter?  ho ho ho 

[edinburgh_1992]

GFS doesn't seem that bad to me... Quite a good amount of snow in the north by the end of the run and a -8 gradually making its way through Scotland. Definitely better than the December situation we have had with a high jet stream and mild winds

[karlos1983]

40 minutes ago, swfc said:

NW is the strat profile on EC on metiociel?can't see it either senilaty or my eyes

 

39 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

MH has tweeted the00z split, the strat data is not available on meteociel..

You can view yesterday’s here though, updates about 5:30am (roughly) each morning for the previous day.

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/diag.php?alert=1&lng=eng 

by D8 (now D7 I guess) we have reversal! -4.0m/s

Edited December 23, 2018 by karlos1983

[Chesil View]

33 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Nick - you are stressing way too early - the models are moving towards the expected solution in a similar way to the late feb one ... eps have had one rum suite but that apart, they head towards the ec 46. The gefs and gems are now headed the same way ......  the holding period could be a lot worse than a mid lat high close by ...... looking back to feb, the gfs fi should catch on more consistently around Xmas day if it’s a strat downwelling wave which proves to bring in the cold. Expect winter to arrive just beyond 7th jan

Spot on Blue this has always been the real lift off point for winter in my opinion anything before this would have an unexpected bonus.

Edited December 23, 2018 by Broadmayne blizzard

[northwestsnow]

Meto RAW for my location shows temps not far away from freezing christmas eve evening with mist...

A nice seasonal evening for santa to do his rounds..

I can hear 'rudolph the red nosed reindeer' now , probably relevant to the conditions tomorrow !!

(Beats the wind and rain we have endured for what seems like an eternity !)

[Shunter]

53 minutes ago, snowfish1 said:

I have a feeling over the next 48 hours we shall. I think because of the enormity of the effect that ssw's have it proves indecipherable to the models themselves.  The severity of it and the likely effectd when they havebt even happened yet.....? 

I think today is going to see the start of some mouthwatering charts. The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N at midnight is (GFS analysis): 27.3 m/s . Its going to drop like a stone for the next few days , we await the Trop response.

[Methuselah]

Only 2 pages overnight? That says more than the charts do!

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, Shunter said:

I think today is going to see the start of some mouthwatering charts. The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N at midnight is (GFS analysis): 27.3 m/s . Its going to drop like a stone for the next few days , we await the Trop response.

I’m cautious - looking back at the feb charts, we saw a response in the modelling around five days before the reversal for the period 18/22 feb. This turned out to be progressive..... so although the models may well begin to show some impressive fi coldie output by Tuesday, the dates of this shouldn’t be taken too seriously at that stage ....