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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: NE Hants/Surrey border
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Fog, Frost, Storms and Rain if it rains like it means it.
  • Location: NE Hants/Surrey border
3 hours ago, karyo said:

Unlike to see snow from this chart, at least not on low ground.

What in the charts indicates whether or not there will be precip/snow or any other weather type? As a newbie I get confused as to what causes differences of opinion on these type of charts, especially as I just see it as pressure/temp. (Sorry if I am asking a really dumb Q ).

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
51 minutes ago, Purga said:

Yep, a nice shift in the ENS 06z compared to 00z

image.thumb.png.68c5ed7a02bab2fbc3f2b83425154dfb.png

image.thumb.png.e07776c42a478a2370efb7d503d3119c.png

Note that the control is heading down at the end as well.

image.thumb.png.824118713c8a1627b7219f874a9e0738.png

ECM beyond Day 10 with the dominant cluster (London) showing a clear trend away from mild for start of 2019.

It may amount to nothing but at least we have some eye candy appearing now.

 

Thats an excellent EC ens set...

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
5 minutes ago, Paul Faulkner said:

Look at that drop from the ECM ensembles as we head into January

Supported by the mean..

Any high pressure as long as it is not centred to our south/south west will bring cold weather at the surface..

Which is what the ens seem to be pointing too..

Main thing for me is an end to this relentless wind and rain!

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
57 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Step 1 Pick model run you like the most and comment on it, totally ignoring the fact that it is out in cloud cuckoo land and will never happen. Merry Christmas everyone and I hope the cold  shows up before November 2019 

Looks like both you and I remember the Atlantic have already been reading it.  That's exactly the stuff that’s mentioned in the book. You’ll also notice it’s written in a language both goats and humans can understand.

In some ways, it’s true how it can seem tempting to some to comment on charts in FI (though could be useful for trend spotting). 

I sure hope so to! ❄️

Merry Christmas ??

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
2 hours ago, johnholmes said:

No comfort for cold lovers with the 500 mb anomaly charts, all 3 I use show an upper ridge with the centre of Gravity of the +ve heights showing pretty much over the UK.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

and similar of the NOAA 81-4.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

The MJO is in 5 and predicted (GFS) to move to 6 with a reasonable position away from the centre.

Six corresponds to nothing helpful from a cold perspective!

Actually I've been finding the MJO composites publicly available, even the ENSO-adjusted ones, to be misleading. It may be a lag-time issue, as that varies greatly depending on the rate of propagation of the MJO and the state of the GWO at the same time. From what I've discovered, the P6 composite should at the very least be HP dominated across the UK... so no surprise how the models have trended for the opening days of Jan.

The existing P7 composites seem more trustworthy though (with their strong HLB signal). Part of this is down to the sample size; it's much larger for P7 and P8 at decent amplitude in Jan than it is for P5 or P6.

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
45 minutes ago, Mizzle said:

What in the charts indicates whether or not there will be precip/snow or any other weather type? As a newbie I get confused as to what causes differences of opinion on these type of charts, especially as I just see it as pressure/temp. (Sorry if I am asking a really dumb Q ).

You need to look at the chart that shows the 850 hpa. You need to see those temperatures being well below -5 in a westerly airstream because the Atlantic moderates those temperatures at ground level.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
3 minutes ago, karyo said:

You need to look at the chart that shows the 850 hpa. You need to see those temperatures being well below -5 in a westerly airstream because the Atlantic moderates those temperatures at ground level.

We need uppers of -10 on a north westerly, we have seen the devastating effects of the Irish bath time and time again in our part of the country..

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Hampshire Snow Hoper
  • Location: Hampshire Snow Hoper

After much thought and looking on here,ive come to the conclusion that by about New Years Eve,we should have a fairly nailed on decision as to what the weather is going to be on Xmas Day and Boxing Day lol........Merry Xmas to all.

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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&amp;ech=204

i don't know  what the gfs had for dinner  but going  back to work is looking very interesting could be a longer holiday coming  up for some!!

gfs-2-300.png

gfs-2-312.png

gfs-2-324.png

gfs-2-336.png

gfs-2-360.png

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1 hour ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Since it’s coming up to Christmas, we’ve decided to extend the loan time of this book. You can now borrow it up to 8 weeks from the library. You may find it useful! ??

409BB5F4-D19A-46B8-8429-0411B0EB5C9C.thumb.jpeg.7a12b213754f87c53bc0712f438f317c.jpeg

Hey thats me well at least, that's what I was called in the comp school by many of the other kids as they thought I looked exactly like him.... honestly , anyway, I'm so glad you've found my book useful and to be honest it's nice to see they're still out there as unfortunately this edition was discontinued years ago! I've got a new book being launched next Spring though, it's called "Noddy looks forward to another lovely Summer at the seaside" 

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
42 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

It’s coming!

 

9A7FEDD0-D2AF-4A45-9661-35D69E462F14.png

What Christmas?

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
8 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

What Christmas?

Nice to see the signal is still there for sometime in the distant future:drunk-emoji:..just waiting for the models to show it now!..:santa-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
2 minutes ago, Jonathan Rhodri Roberts said:

Hey thats me well at least, that's what I was called in the comp school by many of the other kids as they thought I looked exactly like him.... honestly , anyway, I'm so glad you've found my book useful and to be honest it's nice to see they're still out there as unfortunately this edition was discontinued years ago! I've got a new book being launched next Spring though, it's called "Noddy looks forward to another lovely Summer at the seaside" 

Ar man, how exciting!  The models better paint a fine Summer to go along with it! Or that book may turn out to be false! 

Your discontinued book was one of the main reasons for me getting to know about the models. That, as well as the handy Netweather’s learners guides along with the informative posts in here. 

It’s a real pleasure to chat to the author of this book. I’d be struggling without it!

Keep up the great work. I’m looking forward to the future releases! ??

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

AO and NAO on the move to negative!

E0B35ECF-C035-4D29-8493-3F100FE9BC55.thumb.gif.20809ed2604b69383491a5bc6855de9f.gifEB996805-104A-4F35-BF8C-6CB864D7924F.thumb.gif.65fa558b6f3ec7144cc69a72283dd701.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Nice to see the signal is still there for sometime in the distant future:drunk-emoji:..just waiting for the models to show it now!..:santa-emoji:

A long time ago in a distant galaxy? May the froth be with you...Ffff.fwosty:santa-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
6 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

AO and NAO on the move to negative!

E0B35ECF-C035-4D29-8493-3F100FE9BC55.thumb.gif.20809ed2604b69383491a5bc6855de9f.gifEB996805-104A-4F35-BF8C-6CB864D7924F.thumb.gif.65fa558b6f3ec7144cc69a72283dd701.gif

While there are a few odd lines going into positive towards the end, certainly a general trend in the right direction for the cold weather fans. ❄️

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
10 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

AO and NAO on the move to negative!

May be but this is the egg not the chicken!  

I'm pretty sure these are based on GFS and GEFS, they are only reflecting what those models think, with their foibles.  

And as there is uncertainty related to the discrepancy with regard to the strat between the GFS and it's ensembles, I don't think we can conclude anything at all from these plots.

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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl

While we're waiting for the 12z, good to see the SSW is well underway- 

gfsnh-10-6.thumb.png.1a803d93703de82ec0e417e083e95e13.png

pole30_nh.thumb.gif.aa7cab4ba8282b4d66c6ce19ab8b0413.gif

And I found some good learning material for the newbies.

84d707ce6da2962f457672fc839ca94c--meth-lab-classic-books.thumb.jpg.f8819fb5f672a2be7255088e15d03ab5.jpg

:bomb:...

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
17 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

good to see the SSW is well underway- 

pole30_nh.thumb.gif.aa7cab4ba8282b4d66c6ce19ab8b0413.gif

Isn't that just a warming, rather than a sudden one? At 10hPa, it has begun to drop back down, so I would expect it to do so on the 30hPa in the coming days. 

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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

Isn't that just a warming, rather than a sudden one? At 10hPa, it has begun to drop back down, so I would expect it to do so on the 30hPa in the coming days. 

Looks fairly sudden to me. Bear in mind that's the temp reading over the pole. As the PV is displaced, we should see it continue to rise. Unless the warming made it directly over the pole, we wouldn't see the true peak of temps in that chart.

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
6 hours ago, JoeShmoe said:

is that harry redknapp ?

Lol.

Nope but for lovers of trivia it's the Poldark church, used for funerals/weddings/services in the series. It's my village church, set across the fields in total isolation, it has the most complete set of Georgian box pews in the country and this lovely angel guards the entrance. She always looks extra pretty with a cloak of snow.

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