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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside

Time to get involved again, finally some signs of movement...

ECH1-240.GIF.thumb.png.9dcb0f13dbb681cc0301239ce5375f77.png

gfsnh-0-300.thumb.png.80273619913efaadeaf06b9d6a4f7b80.pnggfsnh-1-300.thumb.png.81b48f4faf6bd3a21c357fc7a7fcb261.png

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

No comfort for cold lovers with the 500 mb anomaly charts, all 3 I use show an upper ridge with the centre of Gravity of the +ve heights showing pretty much over the UK.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

and similar of the NOAA 81-4.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

The MJO is in 5 and predicted (GFS) to move to 6 with a reasonable position away from the centre.

Six corresponds to nothing helpful from a cold perspective!

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
17 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Decent FI coming up on the para with low heights sinking into Europe and our high moving NW towards Greenland 

613F2D78-9F24-44F7-83B6-83EA56D34251.png

For Scotland laughing, but 2 runs in a row now, near enough like this, snowy north, not so snowy south

gfs-0-360.png?6

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
19 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

No comfort for cold lovers with the 500 mb anomaly charts, all 3 I use show an upper ridge with the centre of Gravity of the +ve heights showing pretty much over the UK.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

and similar of the NOAA 81-4.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

The MJO is in 5 and predicted (GFS) to move to 6 with a reasonable position away from the centre.

Six corresponds to nothing helpful from a cold perspective!

Love your optimism John....personally, I see better signs from the latest models than I've seen for some time and hopefully Exeter continue with their Easterly and snow as we head towards mid Jan!!!!!❄️:santa-emoji:

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
26 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

No comfort for cold lovers with the 500 mb anomaly charts, all 3 I use show an upper ridge with the centre of Gravity of the +ve heights showing pretty much over the UK.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

and similar of the NOAA 81-4.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

The MJO is in 5 and predicted (GFS) to move to 6 with a reasonable position away from the centre.

Six corresponds to nothing helpful from a cold perspective!

 

Supposedly that high pressure over the UK is not a bad sign at all

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

The latest FV3 decides to drop part of the PV down on us but not esp cold.

gfsnh-0-384.thumb.png.7634a1f2b2fee0a0a04057961a1cd135.pnggfsnh-1-384.thumb.png.ac66118cea326b5e22646029a0a31b92.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

So both GFS and the Para are going for a switch to substantially colder weather - at last! But, anyway, at this stage, the finer details are of no consequence...

Netweather GFS Image

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Posted
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
45 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

No comfort for cold lovers with the 500 mb anomaly charts, all 3 I use show an upper ridge with the centre of Gravity of the +ve heights showing pretty much over the UK.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

and similar of the NOAA 81-4.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

The MJO is in 5 and predicted (GFS) to move to 6 with a reasonable position away from the centre.

Six corresponds to nothing helpful from a cold perspective!

Depends on what you call cold John, I’d imagine for the southeast and central quadrant there could be some severe frosts with sub zero temperatures. 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

That potential signal for colder wintry weather from around mid Jan continues!!!..and overall, the latest output is not as boring as recent days so a mixed outlook, the best of the fine weather further s / se.:santa-emoji:

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

That signal for colder wintry weather from around mid Jan continues!!!..and overall, the latest output is not as boring as recent days so a mixed outlook, the best of the fine weather further s / se.

Agreed...boring isn’t the word I would use either....06z Gefs p14....is just amazing....keep it coming 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Big variations on the fi gefs members - modelling will struggle big time until it gets a handle on whether there is a downwelling or not and if there is, how strong a wave will come down .....

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Dutch ecm ens temps trending colder at years end

eps_pluim_tt_06260.thumb.png.597571f6d7462be4ad54be4aa5c584ba.png

watch out for the wind direction,the signal has been gaining over the last few days.

eps_pluim_dd_06260.thumb.png.0ac6ddaf381107c14586c8da140b818e.png

https://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagse/?type=eps_pluim

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 hour ago, johnholmes said:

No comfort for cold lovers with the 500 mb anomaly charts, all 3 I use show an upper ridge with the centre of Gravity of the +ve heights showing pretty much over the UK.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

and similar of the NOAA 81-4.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

The MJO is in 5 and predicted (GFS) to move to 6 with a reasonable position away from the centre.

Six corresponds to nothing helpful from a cold perspective!

Still a step nearer to 7/8 though.

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)

Since it’s coming up to Christmas, we’ve decided to extend the loan time of this book. You can now borrow it up to 8 weeks from the library. You may find it useful! ??

409BB5F4-D19A-46B8-8429-0411B0EB5C9C.thumb.jpeg.7a12b213754f87c53bc0712f438f317c.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
6 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Since it’s coming up to Christmas, we’ve decided to extend the loan time of this book. You can now borrow it up to 8 weeks from the library. You may find it useful! ??

409BB5F4-D19A-46B8-8429-0411B0EB5C9C.thumb.jpeg.7a12b213754f87c53bc0712f438f317c.jpeg

Step 1 Pick model run you like the most and comment on it, totally ignoring the fact that it is out in cloud cuckoo land and will never happen. Merry Christmas everyone and I hope the cold  shows up before November 2019 

Edited by lassie23
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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
1 minute ago, lassie23 said:

Step 1 Pick model run you like the most and comment on it, totally ignoring the fact that it is out in cloud cuckoo land and will never happen.

To get everyone to click the 'like' button, and keep a count of the 'likes'

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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

To get everyone to click the 'like' button, and keep a count of the 'likes'

That is step 2 for sure lol

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

Yep, a nice shift in the ENS 06z compared to 00z

image.thumb.png.68c5ed7a02bab2fbc3f2b83425154dfb.png

image.thumb.png.e07776c42a478a2370efb7d503d3119c.png

Note that the control is heading down at the end as well.

image.thumb.png.824118713c8a1627b7219f874a9e0738.png

ECM beyond Day 10 with the dominant cluster (London) showing a clear trend away from mild for start of 2019.

It may amount to nothing but at least we have some eye candy appearing now.

 

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

I can recall in the past that the models don’t latch onto the full effects of a stratospheric warming or slowdown / reversal of upper winds until it actually starts happening. I expect more dream fi Synoptics to start appearing in the next few days !

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Hmmm no mention of an Easterly longer term but still that cold signal remains which is what we coldies are clinging to..and looking at the latest models, we may not have to wait until mid Jan for something wintry!!!..some encouragement despite yet another green christmas!!!!:santa-emoji:

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Okay so finally the northern blocking signal is strong enough to take the ridge up into Greenland against the weak PV. Got a feeling we're going to be seeing a lot more of this now- either with a Greenland High+Euro/Scandi Trough or a Scandi High+UK/Iberian trough

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Hi people good afternoon all

Hope everyone is well and we are in the final countdown to the big day. Well here in Walthamstow North East London it does not feel like a Decembers day nor like late March or Early April really springlike, where has winter gone?

As this will probably be my last post before Christmas I just like to firstly thank the forum management for their great efforts in keeping this site running, without this I would certainly be lost in weather prospects. Secondly a big thank you to all the wonderful posts that I have read throughout the year and the experts who have taken time to share their knowledge with the less knowledgable ones. Last but not least thank you to everyone who has been on this rollercoaster we have had our ups and downs together and it has been a great pleasure in seeing all the regulars in here.

So looks like we are in a high pressure situation in the coming days and it all depends where the high pressure is that will dictate our weather. It looks as though we may see some fog and frost and some murk and gloom as well. As I mentioned in my last post I don't think we will start seeing any candy charts untill closer to the new year or even after. A lot of people have said that all the signs look great as we head into January but the usual   Covets apply. I know our hearts are really dying for this freeze let's hope everything falls together for our island and we finally see our awaited winter wonderland . The Siberian Express will be running s new timetable that has its stop here.

finally hope you sweet people have a Lovely Christmas take time out to spend with loved ones. 

Stay Safe and keep heads up

our search for our winter wonderland continues

Merry Christmas  

kind reagards

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