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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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karyo Maestro

karyo

Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
Posted
5 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

I have to admit I hate this weather type with a passion. It's just very boring more so at Christmas but good for people getting out and about. As Nick has mentioned it's been a while since we got such a dominant high sitting over us in mid winter. I don't remember ever seeing a Christmas card depicting 12 degrees and cloudy lol....

Let's just hope the strat warming will save the day!

The problem is that for the most part it is sitting just to the south of us and not over us, hence it is looking mild and cloudy.  

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted (edited)

I think we can be confident of HP sitting over the South UK at day 10, now we need to see a push of heights from the Mid Atlantic taking that HP Northwards with it!! 

Edit - this does long possible on this run.

Edited by Ali1977
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Weathizard Accomplished

Weathizard

Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
Posted

Northerly coming in FI? The one good thing about a UK high type scenario as when the opportunity arises it COULD go north, especially with the strat warming 

776D6FE2-8850-4F0A-8E64-7BBF46446D18.png

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

GEFS zonal wind chart today's 0z

image.thumb.jpg.50c8bf80ee1e4e11b5677c04d74363b8.jpg

The suite is not for turning it seems. Looks like a tighter bunch, and contrary to my prediction from yesterday, they haven't slipped back another 24 hours with the reversal.

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

I think we can be confident of HP sitting over the South UK at day 10, now we need to see a push of heights from the Mid Atlantic taking that HP Northwards with it!! 

Edit - this does long possible on this run.

This could be a belter FI

Boooom inbound

0B69B79A-77DC-4B9C-A3DB-89E962796E5C.png

Edited by Ali1977
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weatherguy Aficionado

weatherguy

Posted
  • Location: Liverpool - 23m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and hot, sunny summers!
  • Location: Liverpool - 23m ASL
Posted (edited)
36 minutes ago, edinburgh_1992 said:

Pretty impressive chart, looks as is if the PV is directly over our heads? Precipitation associated with that chart shows snow over most of the UK

 

gfs-0-384.png

With the wet air associated with PM/NW airflow, you'd typically need around -6 or -8c 850hpa temperatures to see snow anywhere other than on high ground.  Unfortunately this chart would be miserable cold rain!

gfs-1-384.png?0

6z rolling out on the GFSP now, lets see if we get a more encouraging strat split on this run...

Edited by weatherguy
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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Big Northerly coming up here.

gfsnh-0-264_vjf5.png

This run should lift Xmas spirit, grammar set of Ens to follow hopefully

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, bluearmy said:

Not really but I wouldn’t be worrying about it ....the lobes will only be forced further apart once the high pushes further across the pole which will be a slower process ........the trop seems to be doing a decent job moving forward as the winds decelerate higher up 

Not sure i agree with this, yes its the GFS but it keeps on putting the PV back together after the split, unless we see the wide split modelled in the next few days, i would say anything unlikely until last third Jan, i would'nt rule out the trop doing what it wants usually but to me there is just no sign that without a favourable SSW, that the trop is likely to do anything other than transient fog and frost episodes, not saying we can't get there but we need to see something soon in the extended modelling.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted

Nothing to see here, very boring

tempresult_jqs7.gif

tempresult_lwp6.gif 

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Stuie Experienced

Stuie

Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
Posted
4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

That’ll do for starters ....

BD49003F-0DF6-4E28-B4B2-22532FC6AEDF.png

CCD240FD-B302-4952-8A4B-48BE47F77F81.png

10B3EEF7-AE64-48F1-A07A-255F6318D8E5.png

You really have to laugh at charts like this, poor Yorkshire...

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

Different evolution wrt the split in the strat on the 6z

image.thumb.jpg.e22e20049127d60df5e2e1c91abf4024.jpg

very different angle, looks wrong when compared to most other runs showing the split.  Don't think the GFS is anywhere close to getting this right yet.

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supernova Community Regular

supernova

Posted
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything newsworthy, so long as it's not in the Daily Express
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not sure i agree with this, yes its the GFS but it keeps on putting the PV back together after the split, unless we see the wide split modelled in the next few days, i would say anything unlikely until last third Jan, i would'nt rule out the trop doing what it wants but to me there is just no sign that without a favourable SSW, that the trop is likely to do anything other than transient fog and frost episodes, not saying we can't get there but we need to see something soon in the extended modelling.

This might help a bit Feb. Admittedly only one (Op) run in deep FI but it does at least show the potential as we enter the New Year and the trop begins to respond to the SSW. Let's hope GFS has finally started to smell the Christmas coffee - certainly a classic Northerly evolution as you follow the suite beyond the initial high. Be interesting to see if other models follow over the next few days.

gfsnh-10-384.png

gfsnh-0-372.png

Edit: Guilty of simultaneous posting but point still valid I think. Beyond the dross, there is hope, is my summary.

Edited by supernova
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

What a chart (shame it won't verify)...Kinks all over the place and perhaps a slider thrown in too? Changes are afoot!

Netweather GFS Image

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ItNeverSnowsInWindsor Experienced

ItNeverSnowsInWindsor

Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

You really have to laugh at charts like this, poor Yorkshire...

As if the Pennines don’t exist! Not that it matters much on the Pennines the difference!

Edited by prolongedSnowLover
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ItNeverSnowsInWindsor Experienced

ItNeverSnowsInWindsor

Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor
Posted
2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

What a chart (shame it won't verify)...Kinks all over the place and perhaps a slider thrown in too? Changes are afoot!

Netweather GFS Image

It’s about time the nation saw widespread deep snow akin to 1991 in my opinion!

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ItNeverSnowsInWindsor Experienced

ItNeverSnowsInWindsor

Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor
Posted
50 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

The only remaining questions, for the Xmas-NY period, would seem to be: How much cloud? How much sun? How much frost? How much fog?

Netweather GFS Image

Could do with a bit of luck to get clearer skies! Need to get rid of the current depressing conditions!

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