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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Looking for positives, at least we can say Dec will likely end on a mainly dry,and at times possibly foggy/frosty note, after what has been a pretty wet month in my locale i'm happy about that..

Exeter expecting an unsettled spell early in Jan but looking at the EC and its mean i cant see much sign of it if i'm honest..

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
7 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Desperate Strat searching......?

trend away from wintry wonderland continue ..?

You are clearly on a wind up!

Strat warming well underway already! Now! Today!

Here is Day 5

6B2BACED-D920-4E66-BC3E-AB6384F41E93.thumb.gif.c8131b5abc16c0d3ddc015fdbb39eb15.gif

Toasty!

by D10 U-wind at -9.6 and a split

45AA4184-1050-4B2A-81E5-76EADCAEB32B.thumb.gif.71eda768916a222a6d4ad7f9e893eee0.gif

 

Your obviously an expert the Carlos! And no doubt can't see the downgrade with this chart compared with the splits being shown previous days...I'm not getting into an argument and start putting other posters down for airing their opinion, we shall see.

gfsnh-10-384-2.png

Edited by Blessed Weather
Ditto above edit.
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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Karlos is that this mornings EC Strat charts?

Thats a decent reversal at -10m/s..

Febs got me all confused lol..

 

It’s yesterday’s. We only get access to yesterday’s strat charts. But there is no reason at all to think the ECM will look any different today.

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Looking at the ECM ensemble spreads , quite a large spread over Southern Europe from day 8 orientated in a manner that suggests theres a chance the high could get further north.

Best output of the morning is our favourite ICON which because of its better upstream pattern manages to get the high in a more favourable position , if you look at the direction. of energy upstream it’s pivoting away from the high so we’d likely see it’s later output show the high moving towards Scandi .

The key thing here is the Pacific shortwave moving east towards the Great Lakes , it’s solution is more amplified and developed which will attach it to low heights over Greenland helping to pull some of that nw.

The UKMO is also better than both the ECM and GFS at day 6 upstream .

The less said about the GFS the better.  In a word pants !

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh
  • Location: Edinburgh

I can't agree with those bemoaning the lack of fantasy output showing cold.  It was always most likely that December would finish with a HP close by especially given the signal for precipitation: MT8_Aberdeen_ens.png

Thereafter, chance of cold increases because of the strat situation. It's not nailed on by any means but the chance nevertheless increases.  We also know from experience how hard the models find it in this scenario.  I'm sure someone can post the verification stats from last Feb to prove my point.  I have the 10th of Jan in mind for a change to cold, based on a week to ten days after the split/displacement, with the former seemingly most likely.  Hence I'm expecting to see some ensembles starting to show cold (and we have seen these for a few days now) and over time expect to see more of this. 

graphe_ens3.php?x=&ext=1&y=&run=18&lat=5

 

Edited by pdiddy
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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
6 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Your obviously an expert the Carlos! And no doubt can't see the downgrade with this chart compared with the splits being shown previous days...I'm not getting into an argument and start putting other posters down for airing their opinion, we shall see.

gfsnh-10-384-2.png

So one run of the GFSP changes everything.

I’m sure the Met Office, with their vast amounts of data that we can’t see, will change their outlook because the likes of the GFS, which are highly unrealible more than a few days ahead and don’t even run out as far as their outlook, don’t show wintry conditions at present.

Edited by MattStoke
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Looking for positives, at least we can say Dec will likely end on a mainly dry,and at times possibly foggy/frosty note, after what has been a pretty wet month in my locale i'm happy about that..

Exeter expecting an unsettled spell early in Jan but looking at the EC and its mean i cant see much sign of it if i'm honest..

 

Extended eps are back where they were - let’s ignore yesterday’s 12z eps as clearly a duff set of clusters somewhere skewing the mean output 

I wonder if Exeter’s unsettled spell could be predicated on a flushing down of zonal flow ahead of a downwelling reversal wave ....it’s not unusual 

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Karlos is that this mornings EC Strat charts?

Thats a decent reversal at -10m/s..

Febs got me all confused lol..

 

that’s today’s charts but  yesterday’s  data ...... Berlin analysis is for the previous day 

fwiw, today’s raw strat at 10hpa isn’t much changed 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Extended eps are back where they were - let’s ignore yesterday’s 12z eps as clearly a duff set of clusters somewhere skewing the mean output 

I wonder if Exeter’s unsettled spell could be predicated on a flushing down of zonal flow ahead of a downwelling reversal wave ....it’s not unusual 

that’s today’s charts but  yesterday’s  data ...... Berlin analysis is for the previous day 

fwiw, today’s raw strat at 10hpa isn’t much changed 

Well i will take that as a positive Blue..

SIgnal to me suggests the high just about getting enough north to drag in some cooler air(day 10) as opposed to this coming week when the milder south westerly air gets pulled up to the UK..

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Extended eps are back where they were - let’s ignore yesterday’s 12z eps as clearly a duff set of clusters somewhere skewing the mean output 

I wonder if Exeter’s unsettled spell could be predicated on a flushing down of zonal flow ahead of a downwelling reversal wave ....it’s not unusual 

that’s today’s charts but  yesterday’s  data ...... Berlin analysis is for the previous day 

fwiw, today’s raw strat at 10hpa isn’t much changed 

Is the split getting any wider towards the end of the run? Thats what i am most concerned about at the moment.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Is the split getting any wider towards the end of the run? Thats what i am most concerned about at the moment.

Yes my thoughts exactly...

EC mean does indicate a ridging north of our high , but a lot depends on how much energy is left in the Atlantic as to whether it can get far enough north to change the ball game, wait and see i guess.

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Just now, johnholmes said:

Still rising slightly, up by 14 C or so from crossing the average, so IF it works then 5-10 January for it to take effect??

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/

I can’t wait to see if this is accurate John

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Is the split getting any wider towards the end of the run? Thats what i am most concerned about at the moment.

Not really but I wouldn’t be worrying about it ....the lobes will only be forced further apart once the high pushes further across the pole which will be a slower process ........the trop seems to be doing a decent job moving forward as the winds decelerate higher up 

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Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales

Obviously frustration is getting to a few in here...

 

My original point was that strat charts used to be confined to the strat thread, the model thread used to contain numerous NWP output charts, the fact there have been very few over the last few days speaks volumes for the output. Even in the mildest winters you used to get some outrageous fi charts to post. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk

^ OK guys - points made. Let's move on please. Thank you.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I can’t wait to see if this is accurate John

nor can I, I did say some years ago when I used it the accuracy was only about 50%

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, KTtom said:

Obviously frustration is getting to a few in here...

 

My original point was that strat charts used to be confined to the strat thread, the model thread used to contain numerous NWP output charts, the fact there have been very few over the last few days speaks volumes for the output. Even in the mildest winters you used to get some outrageous fi charts to post. 

I know its frustrating mate but keep your pecker up..

IMO things slowly improving this morning, esp wrt EC and its mean..

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset

I wouldn`t be too upset if the GFSP gave me this scenario for my Birthday. HP transitions nicely to Scandi.

gfsnh-1-288.png

Jan 4

 

gfsnh-0-312.png

Edited by Stuie W
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Posted
  • Location: Shorne West, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Sun in summer, Snow in Winter
  • Location: Shorne West, Kent

Zonal wind speed at 60’N increased to 28.6 at midnight. This was forecast and could indicate why NWP is showing such strength in the Jet stream. The good news is that this will fall like a stone from today to a possible reversal around the 28th. This should severely deflate energy in the jet stream around the New Year. The question is whether the models have factored this in? 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
2 minutes ago, Shunter said:

Zonal wind speed at 60’N increased to 28.6 at midnight. This was forecast and could indicate why NWP is showing such strength in the Jet stream. The good news is that this will fall like a stone from today to a possible reversal around the 28th. This should severely deflate energy in the jet stream around the New Year. The question is whether the models have factored this in? 

I suspect EC is now factoring it in, the high gets far enough north at day 10 to offer optimism of a change..

But of course there could be a lot of volatility over the coming days..only yesterday Exeter were musing over an unsettled spell early Jan, EC not having much to do with that this morning..

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