Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

LOL!! I think it’s been a long week & everyones enjoying a Friday night of drinks before the serious business starts next week ? it’s gonna take stamina 

Yes all the reason to take some time off, and come back in a week time!

 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
9 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

The model output is mind numbingly boring

Couldn't be further from the truth for me. The strat output has been fascinating, and looking at the further reach models like CFS etc counting down to the reliable? It's why I keep coming back here, every season, especially late Autumn.... When the white stuff starts to fall, I turn to my nearest and dearest and say: "see? I told you!"

Edited by Rocheydub
  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
2 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Yes all the reason to take some time off, and come back in a week time!

 

Not sure I could take a week off... I’d feel like I’m missing out lol, perhaps a weekend off would be healthy though 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
15 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

No sign of the Icelandic charts getting back to normal ........

It’ll be resolved in time for the Xmas balloon data saga

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts

Getting a bit of WAA with our high at day 9. 12z hinted at this too before brushing it away in the very first low res time point at t252.

GFSOPEU18_234_1.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos

Encouraging to see the low heights drop down through Scandi into Poland and higher heights pushing through Iceland at 240 on ECM. Sets up the balance of colder 850s into our favour beyond that timeframe if we're looking at any kind or reversal of the vortex where we want air coming from the East. It helps to have the more amplified pattern upstream coming into play, also.

ECH1-240.GIF?21-0

 

GFS is playing with similar scenarios but likes to perform a volte-face every other run.

It's like picking the Christmas buffet cheese, Cheddar for all the family, brie for the exotic continentals and a bit of Stilton or Roquefort for the hard heads. A blend of all is a nice compromise but we still don't know which will be the overall winner.

Interesting to see the 18z going very much the ECM way at 240

gfsnh-0-240.png?18

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

It's looking predominantly settled for as far as the eye can see, not straightforward sunny skies and frosty nights, there looks to be some cloudy / drizzly milder interludes, especially further west but as time goes on, an increasing incidence of frost / fog, especially away from the far n / nw where there looks like being more of an atlantic influence compared to most of the uk but really i have high hopes that January will turn into an exciting month for coldies by the second half...can't wait for winter to arrive!!!❄️:santa-emoji:

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

HP seems to be creeping further and further N around day 10 now

gfsnh-0-252.png?18

It is further NW and the back door is closer,it wouldn't take much tweaking Crew.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

The amp at day 10 is pretty extreme on the GFS 18z as the trend continues - and for a change its not only believable but feasibly has room to improve further .

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Hello GFS coming on board wrt split SSW.

https://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/strat.php?run=2018122118&var=HGT&lev=5mb&hour=348

Edited by feb1991blizzard
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
20 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

My own view, is won't have to wait that long - a couple of weeks tops.

We do live in a very impatient world (more so than ever). I'm sure most would agree. Even I have the odd wobble from time to time

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
6 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

HP seems to be creeping further and further N around day 10 now

gfsnh-0-252.png?18

Some similarities with Mid-Jan or so 91' there - keep an eye for pressure to develop further north or north east in a few days time?

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Finally the gfs is coming on board with the strat but is much later than the FV3.

gfsnh-10-360.thumb.png.cced8e7755410b38a62ffc7d905af912.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
12 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

With -counter (due respect(..

Its a stagnant phase atm..and 2 be fully expected!.

So quotation/Analysis will likely mirror, the likes ALREADY informed.

And scrutinisation, of run 2 run synop- is invariable...and pointless..

Xmas comes nxt week..and many a children await with exitment...but its NAILED..as a date in non-change/transfer...

But our meteorolgical xmas...

Is there...only father xmas is not yet sure when 2 land on the roof!!!!

But the sleigh...is circling...!!

I always respect your posts sir! Here's hoping

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

A consistently modelled path being plotted now between the models of the split leaving the Greenland door open. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Looks like this run is erring towards the split too

gfsnh-10-360.png?18

Yep and the temperatures match the positioning really well too. Better split on this run, not quite completely split yet though. Every run that has a better attempt at the high getting North gives a better split. This seemingly boring period is actually very important, we need to see that ridge push towards Iceland at days 9-15.

NH_HGT_10mb_384.thumb.gif.8c2c6e74814351249a2cdbb4fcaf018e.gif

Edited by Snowy L
  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, CreweCold said:

A consistently modelled path being plotted now between the models of the split leaving the Greenland door open. 

Yes, still looks very different from the ECM strat evolution although ends up with a similar result.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
9 minutes ago, Singularity said:

The amp at day 10 is pretty extreme on the GFS 18z as the trend continues - and for a change its not only believable but feasibly has room to improve further .

Looks like this might be where the door finally opens.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

We need to be looking second week of Jan for this landing. Oh boy, this could coincide with the peak cold pooling time of year.

Very rare Indeed. Dare I say Jan 4.... On second thoughts, no just forget what I started to type lol.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

We need to be looking second week of Jan for this landing. Oh boy, this could coincide with the peak cold pooling time of year.

Yes, slightly worried that we havent seen a wide split yet - i tell you what though, IF and i know it a big IF, it comes off, we will regret not doing that joint winter forecast i mentioned months ago, we would have had a big success.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, slightly worried that we havent seen a wide split yet - i tell you what though, IF and i know it a big IF, it comes off, we will regret not doing that joint winter forecast i mentioned months ago, we would have had a big success.

Yes, but I think we both made our thoughts very clear over the past couple of months or so! 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...