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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted (edited)

i reckon member 2 is a QTR ….. not sure any of the others display the signature …. plenty more latitude on the blocks around the NH than seen recently

and the hemispheric pattern late on is headed in the right direction ……….

Edited by bluearmy
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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Looks to be a noticeable difference between UKMO /EC at only 72 hours?

UKMO has energy into the UK, EC much further west..

 

They look identical at +96

ECH1-96.GIF?20-0Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

Edited by karlos1983
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snowray Veteran

snowray

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Posted
18 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

That’ll be different by the time the next run is out 

Yes maybe so, but its relatively mild for much of the winter in the UK on average, so we can have a little dig from time to time when a decent chart turns up for us coldies.

Mildies do have their way most of the time.

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

They look identical at +96

ECH1-96.GIF?20-0Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

They are very similar Karlos - i think EC is slightly further west with the high-(better), but probably not enough to alter much.

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Stuie Experienced

Stuie

Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
Posted
2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

They look identical at +96

ECH1-96.GIF?20-0Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

I would say the UKMO has actually played a little catch up to the ECM, Was a much more shallower LP yesterday on the UKMO.

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The Eagle Seasoned

The Eagle

Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
Posted (edited)

Unusual to see the +16c 850 iso that far north this time of year (over southern Spain)

 

ECM0-96.GIF?20-0

 

Possible localised seasonal records there? 

Edited by The Eagle
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Stuie Experienced

Stuie

Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
Posted

Interesting from the EC, going for a Batman look, splitting the cold into 3 somewhat.

ECH0-168.png

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted (edited)

Ecm 12z..likely going gfs route...latter frames..a march for scandi !!..

And spliting -separation of high cell...into point greenland..?!.

ECH1-168.gif

Edited by tight isobar
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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
Just now, Stuie W said:

+12 uppers into the heart of the US.....

ECH0-192.png

Also -12 uppers into the heart of the US.

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Stuie Experienced

Stuie

Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
Posted
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Also -12 uppers into the heart of the US.

East west split, not in the usual balance...

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Stuie Experienced

Stuie

Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
Posted
1 minute ago, The Eagle said:

I'm binning this ECM because it doesn't show what I want  

On my black and white monitor it looks fantastic.

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Stuie Experienced

Stuie

Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
Posted
14 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

can ec op keep the polar vortex lobes apart day 8 ????

answer - not really …….

Having a good go at day 10, Blue.

ECH0-216.png

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Seasonality Accomplished

Seasonality

Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
Posted

The ECM is flirting with the idea of colder conditions into Europe in its latter stages again. But the way its been flip flopping lately I'm treating it as pure entertainment. 

ECE1-216 (1).gif

ECE0-216.gif

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Stuie Experienced

Stuie

Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

this run is growing a big arctic high the other side of the vortex ……. noticed that on any other charts recently ????????

Just look at the total length of, do I say block.

ECH1-216.png

ECH1-216.png

Edited by Stuie W
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Snowy L Maestro

Snowy L

Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
Posted

At least its starting to get those lows elongating in the Atlantic at d7-10. I think it's a small step towards the GFS.

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