Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

[Guest]

Well im sat here watching The Day After Tomorrow, and thinking to myself this place would probably still be " the uppers look marginal" or something like "its a toppler" or " a northerly is no good for my location" the shops would be empty of bread and milk Thomas Shaferknaker ( not sure i spelt that correct) would still be saying "mild for the next few weeks" Sydney would have the wood shed up for sale, i would keep saying Snaw not Snow.... and in the end the cold would end up in Greece and it would all be down to a poxy shortwave that nobody saw coming until t72. the gfs the ecm and the cfs would all be tossed in the bin and the icon would say ha ha ha told you so..... just a little light humour to hopefully bring a few smiles to some folk as we await the blizzards....

[JBMWeatherForever]

Looking forward to lots of fine settled weather over Christmas with some frosty mornings in places making it feel a bit more seasonal and perfect for that Boxing day walk.

Of course by then, we may have celebrated Christmas, but will likely be by then continuing to celebrate, but this time because of the model output that we will hopefully be seeing by or even before then. I really think that the continuing evolution we are currently seeing is moving in a direction that will start to show much colder scenarios quite soon, with quite a good chance that our much anticipated January cold starts earlier than currently expected too.        

[london-snow]

1 hour ago, karlos1983 said:

Starting to show some cold members on the EC ENS.... watch that number grow over the next few days (towards the end)

 

Hmmm up to the 3rd of January..

A tad early as we discussed earlier but maybe a quick trop response with indications of a split? 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Need to start seeing better ensembles than this one from the 18z with all these ‘background’ signals!

Edited December 20, 2018 by prolongedSnowLover

[The Eagle]

UKMO. Safe to say it does not get much more horrible than this for coldies.

 

Edited December 20, 2018 by The Eagle

[Tom Quintavalle]

10 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

UKMO. Safe to say it does not get much more horrible than this for coldies.

 

Really?? Looks to me like the Atlantic is about to it a brick wall!! Pretty similar to late Dec.1984.

Regards,

Tom. 

[The Eagle]

I rest my case

 

[cheshire snow]

Thankfully FI but this morning GFS has some Eastern areas up to 16c just after New Year

Without been over dramatic The UKMO and GFS are awful this morning

C.S  

   

[swfc]

12 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Thankfully FI but this morning GFS has some Eastern areas up to 16c just after New Year

Without been over dramatic The UKMO and GFS are awful this morning

C.S  

   

I'd agree there.even in fi the PV looks very strong.im not sure where things are going into Jan"I haven't a crystal ball" but it would be nice to see some decent cold runs in the mo over the next week or so in regard to the much discussed potential cold weather.who knows what the weather has in store I don't ???

[The Eagle]

This could tear the guts out of our winter. Really dreadful and I know some here like to see the bright side but no gloss can be put on this for now. 

Edited December 20, 2018 by The Eagle

[Ali1977]

11 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

This could tear the guts out of our winter. Really dreadful and I know some here like to see the bright side but no gloss can be put on this for now. 

GEFS still have plenty of interest 

[snowangel32]

11 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

This could tear the guts out of our winter. Really dreadful and I know some here like to see the bright side but no gloss can be put on this for now. 

Yep no sugar coating it the PV looks more powerful than ever and exactly where we dont want it and hieghts struggle to build because of the energy coming from the Atlantic. Let's just hope it gets better for us Coldies. We still have the SSW and good background signals to give us some hope. Chin up people it surely cant get any worse.

[snowangel32]

7 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

GEFS still have plenty of interest 

Seems to be at present though the last few weeks that the OP has led the way.

[tight isobar]

Anyone taking the models...especialy the raw datas- seriously after 144hrs (max) are missleading themselves...CONSIDERABLY!..

We have some major dynamics/changes occuring 'right now' in the upper atmosphere.

And layer-thermo gradients.

Things could seriously flip within any minor/mid time param now...

And i myself fully expect that notion...soon!!!!

Edited December 20, 2018 by tight isobar

[Mr Frost]

34 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

This could tear the guts out of our winter. Really dreadful and I know some here like to see the bright side but no gloss can be put on this for now. 

It should be illEAGLE to post things like this first thing in the morning - be positive mate! We have so much to look forward to going into January - thrill of the chase and all that. 

Just try to NEST in for the remainder of the month and beyond - no point FLAPPING about over the models at the minute. I don’t think we will see much changes in the ECM or GFS output immediately.

Let us PREY we start seeing some snowy charts within the next couple of weeks.

Have a good day and I am sure you will be buzzing like an old fridge come mid January when once again something like this will hopefully be showing...we can but dream!

 

 

[Chesil View]

56 minutes ago, .jay said:

... and with the SSW effects possibly not kicking in until the 2nd half of winter I think the output might well get worse than this before getting better.  

Of course the snowiest winter of the 20th century 1947 didn't get going until the second half of winter.

[mulzy]

Looks like Christmas will be dry at least!  Maybe even frosty early and late!

ECM by far the best NWP for coldies at days 5 and 6 - though that's not saying much 'cos the rest is simply pants!

[That ECM]

That’s what we’re looking for come the split right?

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Seems a slight improvement on the 0z ensembles with a couple of members hitting -10c in Jan

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

The 0z gfs op run isn’t too bad for the Xmas period with high pressure keeping it potentially frosty. Big changes likely for FI.

Edited December 20, 2018 by prolongedSnowLover

[feb1991blizzard]

The only saving grace at the moment is the ECM 12z had a cracking strat profile, particularly at  the top, whether this has been repeated on the 0z is very important IMO.

[bluearmy]

33 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The only saving grace at the moment is the ECM 12z had a cracking strat profile, particularly at  the top, whether this has been repeated on the 0z is very important IMO.

probably not quite - each ec op strat profile is less amplified than the crazy one from tuesday’s 12z run ....the reversal is now fairly steady at late 28th dec - could well end up 29th.  The split height profile around 10hpa Imprinted onto the trop isn’t particularly exciting for us -  could work but one would hope the one much higher up as per your post would be over time ......... by Saturday, we should just about be able to see if any ec ops are running a QTR at day 10 ......if the NCEP suite in general is sniffing this then charts around 3rd jan onwards might show a big NH split and fast neg AO response....... you would expect the odd gefs member to be on that 

failing a QTR, downwelling shoud be around 12th jan onwards so nothing likely to show on fi gefs until around Xmas/ Boxing Day (thats assuming the op run actually shows a reversal - the 00z doesn’t )

 

there are yoru timescales ......anything else is simply the trop being the trop .....note that once the upper strat does go into reverse, we have seen a step change in the extended ens modelling as the starting data includes the reverse flow .... it shouldn’t make a difference but it has in the past 

Edited December 20, 2018 by bluearmy

[northwestsnow]

EC det brings a cold christmas eve / christmas day but after that temps begin to climb, assuming the core high is to far south ..

Have to be honest, the 00z runs are pretty awful if you are looking for a route away from this pattern to something more exciting..

Hopefully the strat warming underway will start to have an effect into the NY

Model suite shows no appetite to remove the low heights to our NW ....

ec mean 240

not pretty.

 

 

Edited December 20, 2018 by northwestsnow

[feb1991blizzard]

36 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

probably not quite - each ec op strat profile is less amplified than the crazy one from tuesday’s 12z run ....the reversal is now fairly steady at late 28th dec - could well end up 29th.  The split height profile around 10hpa Imprinted onto the trop isn’t particularly exciting for us -  could work but one would hope the one much higher up as per your post would be over time ......... by Saturday, we should just about be able to see if any ec ops are running a QTR at day 10 ......if the NCEP suite in general is sniffing this then charts around 3rd jan onwards might show a big NH split and fast neg AO response....... you would expect the odd gefs member to be on that 

failing a QTR, downwelling shoud be around 12th jan onwards so nothing likely to show on fi gefs until around Xmas/ Boxing Day (thats assuming the op run actually shows a reversal - the 00z doesn’t )

 

there are yoru timescales ......anything else is simply the trop being the trop .....note that once the upper strat does go into reverse, we have seen a step change in the extended ens modelling as the starting data includes the reverse flow .... it shouldn’t make a difference but it has in the past 

You would think it would be signposted in the eps suite by now if it were.

[Team Jo]

Not sure if everyone RTFT yesterday but there was a lot spoken about charts not showing much of cold interest yet because the SSW hasn’t actually happened yet so getting worked up over current output is pointless because the catalyst for the change hasn’t occurred. 

‘Colder possibiities’ are touted for Jan. Jan is a long way off, and I would really encourage as Damienslaw suggested to just perhaps stop over analysing every single run. There is enough pro chat both sides of the Atlantic to fill most people with cautious confidence.

Anyone looking for cold Christmas week, well you’re best off camping out in Sainsbury’s frozen peas section for now. The ‘cold possibilities’ won’t affect us for several weeks which is deep deep FI for regular modelling. Stop beating yourselves up over it!