Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

[feb1991blizzard]

Watch out for scandi shortwave development / track, not quite good enough on this run but better, if we could get one to track SW, never mind a N'ly, we could be on the cusp of a Jan 87 Easterly with that searing cold pool.

[Allseasons-Si]

7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Watch out for scandi shortwave development / track, not quite good enough on this run but better, if we could get one to track SW, never mind a N'ly, we could be on the cusp of a Jan 87 Easterly with that searing cold pool.

I was just about to say the same thing,watch the back door,it's beginning to open,the trough is more neg tilted sw instead of alongating N>S.

Edited December 19, 2018 by Allseasons-si
correction in spelling

[frosty ground]

The 18z has a surface high over Scandinavia a rather striking change at 198

[Spah1]

Jeeez - this is tedious at the moment. 

Roll on the new year.

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, Spah1 said:

Jeeez - this is tedious at the moment. 

Roll on the new year.

A post that needed to be made

[The Northern Ramper]

2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

A post that needed to be made

Seconded

[karlos1983]

JMA splits the winter sod!

[damianslaw]

2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

A post that needed to be made

Agreed the upcoming synoptics are rather tedious at the moment if you are after deep cold and snow, but a building high and development of major cold pool to our NE coupled with a lacklustre jet, and the stirrings and developments in the strat - all increase significantly of something much colder and possibly snowier in the turn of the year.

In the meantime keep an eye on developments to our NE, a deeper cold pool would put forcing on heights and quite possibly send them NW quite quickly rather than sink south. 

[Weathizard]

Poor chart it must be said, not sure where we go from there! SSW is going to need to be our hero riding in it feels because this is a stagnant pattern if it’s cold and snow you want!

[Allseasons-Si]

8 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

JMA splits the winter sod!

That is the first time the jma has showed this

good alround today WRT the strat,

[Snowy L]

Anything that doesn't show high pressure getting up to at least the UK between Christmas and new year should be discarded immediately. Met Office are very confident of that happening.

[ICE COLD]

2 hours ago, karlos1983 said:

 

Mmm Scandi high . Cold coming round the back door . 

EDIT = No the gfs balls it up 

Edited December 19, 2018 by ICE COLD

[January Snowstorm]

Remember folks watch for upgrades in the short term......The best cold spells appear suddenly

Anything over 10 days has and always will be la la land!!

[booferking]

Some gefs showing some early promise just after Xmas Number 7 please.

[damianslaw]

My advice for those wanting to see the models show cold synoptics - best perhaps taking 48-72 hrs off, come back then, as I suspect by the weekend we will begin to see far more conducive synoptics in this respect edging into the semi-reliable, then give yourself a break over christmas period (24-26th), come back on the 27th, and a late snowy cold present surprise could be waiting for you.

Alas what I'm trying to say, is at times like this, it pays to dip in and out of model watching - when impending marked changes are afoot (caused by expected developments over the stratosphere which will have consequences regardless of whether in the form of deep cold our way or not), and wait until the waters are less muddied and a clearer picture begins to surface - which I think will take a week or so, and until then don't expect the models to be clear on this. Better still take the rest of December off - but how many of us could do that!

I will though dip in and out of model watching as suggested.

Edited December 19, 2018 by damianslaw

[Guest]

Last three 12z temperature and today’s pressure ensembles really illustrate the models are still a long way from honing in on a likely solution and it’s all about the positioning of this high. 

[Guest]

So the high looks a certainty, and the professionals know where the high is likely to go, hence the confidence in a colder spell.

[karlos1983]

Starting to show some cold members on the EC ENS.... watch that number grow over the next few days (towards the end)

Edited December 19, 2018 by karlos1983

[brmbrmcar]

Signs of splitting at FV3 +300, ahead of 12Z? Looks like a good run to me.

Edited December 19, 2018 by brmbrmcar

[northwestsnow]

Para looks like its going to split strat again..

[karlos1983]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Para looks like its going to split strat again..

Been pretty consistent over the last few runs, good to see. I think a split PV is now odds on rather than a displaced PV

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Para looks like its going to split strat again..

Need to just get cross model agreement on timing and then need to see the distance grow between the daughter vortices, then we can start popping the corks.

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

A few from the 18z GEFS and given the fact that these are still first week of January I will take these as bonus charts before my interest grows further from 2nd week of January onward

  

an easterly waiting in the wings 

 

8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Need to just get cross model agreement on timing and then need to see the distance grow between the daughter vortices, then we can start popping the corks.

 

dont think it will be long before we are  Poppin bottles in the ice, like a blizzard 

GFS P / FV3 doing its usual and making us wait for the final frames but looks like its on course to deliver the split warming

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

GFS P / FV3 becomes indecisive again just as its about to go for the split it looks like it has second thoughts, hopefully it makes up its mind by or just after Christmas @northwestsnow @feb1991blizzard @karlos1983 hopefully some more good runs tomorrow, goodnight from me 

 

[brmbrmcar]

Looks like the vortex is trying to reform when shown after this:

Good split overall though, good consistency with the 12Z model. Sadly it won't let me make an animation for a comparison.