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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset

Looking at the EC and UKMO at 144, there is a distinct difference with the handling of Atlantic LP.

UKMO doesn`t make much of a feature of this whereas the EC fires up another system by 192.

I know one I want to verify.

 

UN144-21.gif

ECH1-144.png

ECH1-192.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 hour ago, karlos1983 said:

I hope the GFS (P) rolls out a bit quicker when it takes over!!! We will have downwelled by the time this run has finished :whistling:

Yes, they've got to start sorting this out right now, its doing my head in - its purgatory, just realised the ECM has nearly finished and i haven't even looked at it yet.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, they've got to start sorting this out right now, its doing my head in - its purgatory, just realised the ECM has nearly finished and i haven't even looked at it yet.

Its basically HP dominated but unable to break away from this persistant northern arm energy..

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

My advice, for the festive period, would be thus: make sure y'all get home by New Year's Eve...otherwise, you might fall asleep and never wake-up again!

Netweather GFS Image

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48 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

Many showing building HLB, wave 2 activity, strong signals that we'll be seeing some epic eye candy charts in the next few days.

This forum should be buzzing!

Yes we need it to start buzzing asap because the pessimism on this thread just lately is really starting to grind.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
3 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

EC op is notably more Wave 2 days 8-10 at 10hPa. GFS parallel some days behind on this. 

Better late than never, late on 2 counts, late the run coming out but more importantly late with the timing of the 2 wave pattern as you say, looks noticably stronger and a bit earlier though than on its last run so perhaps its playing catch up with the ECM.

gfsnh-10-360_civ0.png

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Better late than never, late on 2 counts, late the run coming out but more importantly late with the timing of the 2 wave pattern as you say, looks noticably stronger and a bit earlier though than on its last run so perhaps its playing catch up with the ECM.

gfsnh-10-360_civ0.png

Yes noticed that Feb- para 12z a million miles better strat - wise than the op..

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Straight back up of 6z run, on the FV3 tonight, S P L I T!

image.thumb.jpg.3f8a8ab0c5501dae8649597d767d5e0c.jpg

That at T360.  I'll put together a longer post on musings on this in a little bit.

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

much better 

gfsnh-10-384.thumb.png.311d2e0a2756686dc1a8c489608a289d.png

no quick routes back from that! the Lacky band is snapped!!

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire

It's a good job we have Strat developments to look forward to because the trop model runs are some of the most boring I've ever seen recently!

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

If it weren’t for what was going on in the background a strongly +NAO chart like this would really struggle to be unraveled.. NWP has been performing shockingly poor testament to future broad scale changes. I’d take uncertainty as a good thing a dry end to 2018 and beginning to 2019 very likely. No man’s land for foreseeable maybe surface cold, what follows thereafter we are all eager to know, this thread will be busy. 

F65BE023-A94A-42E0-B1CF-D9870BEEFABD.thumb.png.c2b32dd86201a1d6ae000aa03b89299f.png

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, The Eagle said:

I'm all out of cheerfulness and ideas.

 

Try changing the thread title to "Hunt for Heat" and we might see something change?

I must admit its tough viewing at the moment, but we have so many background drivers coming together im still optimistic of changes in the new year..

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
10 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

EC op is notably more Wave 2 days 8-10 at 10hPa. GFS parallel some days behind on this. 

that's what we will be looking for in the north pacific but the feb SSW occurred on the 11 th feb.   we began to see gfs ops smelling the fi coffee around 5 days before - there was the false dawn on ecm of some fi nirvanas showing around 20th feb - winter didn't arrive until around 26th. we are still some days from expecting to see a response to this ssw if we get a QTR

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

TBH EC det is pretty chilly again over Christmas- temps dropping away christmas eve into Christmas day- struggling to get much above freezing across the north..

(temps below freezing xmas day at 9am across midlands northern england).

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
27 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

EC op is notably more Wave 2 days 8-10 at 10hPa. GFS parallel some days behind on this. 

Wave after wave, the PV is slowly drifting, away.....

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

TBH EC det is pretty chilly again over Christmas- temps dropping away christmas eve into Christmas day- struggling to get much above freezing across the north..

(temps below freezing xmas day at 9am across midlands northern england).

Any charts mate!!

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, shaky said:

Any charts mate!!

Cant post them shaky on my phone.. cold xmas eve/ christmas day but gradually turning less cold as the high moves ..

I got it saved as EC snow depth charts on my fone .. obviously you have to change parameters for temperature etc..

Maybe someone else has the link

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: Bitter Cold in winter and Extreme heat in summer
  • Location: Leeds
13 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Cant post them shaky on my phone.. cold xmas eve/ christmas day but gradually turning less cold as the high moves ..

I got it saved as EC snow depth charts on my fone .. obviously you have to change parameters for temperature etc..

Maybe someone else has the link

Here you go chaps

637B996D-3937-464F-BD6F-D49F012C4158.png

5D51682B-645F-4D30-8122-825AA7061CBB.png

B13D3E9C-6213-42E0-83BE-454EF447DE10.png

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