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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

h850t850eu.png

Never mind the SSW for now - as exciting as that is, we've got forcing from the tropics helping us out beforehand. The models have made a major hash of detecting new deep convection initiating in the C Pacific, and that has a correlation with a negative NAO... hence my disapproving comments earlier today on the way the models have been behaving of late.

These adjustments are likely to be a bit jittery though; with the models having to suddenly revise their route forward, a wide range of solutions are likely to crop up - but generally, I advise suspicion whenever a run doesn't manage to at the very least have ridges nosing across Iceland from the UK to give an easterly 'drift' across S UK. Could be a classic period of surface-based cold coming up - I can remember a few such festive weeks of weather in years past and the usability of such conditions is much appreciated. Here in the rural south,  we could do with freezing up all the muck from the recent rains .

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Posted
  • Location: Loggerheads, Staffs
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny summers, cold & snowy winters
  • Location: Loggerheads, Staffs

A lot happening with the model output over the last few days. I bow to the superior knowledge of others... but it looks like they are flip flopping to me:

GFS:

GFS.JPG.bcc4f0f1a5e783896a067fe727acbbb9.JPG

 

ECM:

ECM.JPG.07c02226e5bec0893fc2f5a7f1aa97a6.JPG

 

Meto:

Meto.thumb.JPG.26d4a0f7f389b1765829cde6a26e5eb1.JPG

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

would be some cold nights under that!!

gfsnh-0-198.png?12

Freezing fog no doubt! Nice way to cool the lawn down for the real deal :closedeyes:

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Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
5 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Officially, my definition is 2-3 days = "Snap";

4-5 days plus anymore is a "spell".

Im sure I read on here 1 to 2 days is a toppler? Correct me if I'm wrong 

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Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire

At 222hrs, things are going well, so GFS is in the process of  cooking up a tropical storm near the Azores to scupper it.

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Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent

Part of the issue is that part of the PV is dropping to the east of us, this blocks the northern extent of the blocking high. Once the trough has dropped we should some interesting charts.

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)

Before the possibility of things drying up towards Christmas and getting too bothered what may occur beyond, the models (12Z GFS used) show further spells of rain and showers brought in on Westerly to South-Westerly winds in the next few days. Especially for Northern and Western parts. 

CA600015-F321-430F-B5C4-C649FFBC276A.thumb.png.66c87efc9d83cc4a6b8b9a2a33d47d21.png729870B3-B8D5-4936-AF42-F9264E3CD476.thumb.png.62e604aceb052a5fda45d34c8df6e7f6.png815412C1-E78C-4CD8-981C-C0957980AC4A.thumb.png.0ac9cfa12469ae1a3cf0664543a624ed.png

Low Pressure taking the stage to the North and North-West of the U.K with higher pressure to the South and South-East of the U.K. Quite cool at times, especially towards North-Western areas exposed to the cool Westerly winds. 

The European High Pressure over South-Eastern UK starts to have enough of the Atlantic Lows, and there are signs of it building further North into the UK with Low Pressure digging South to the West of the U.K.

CEA9E61A-FD9F-4DA5-B0D4-EE8F53E4887E.thumb.png.0ef10cd71cfb0b29a445f3e9696732e3.png

B7046972-89EA-4D4C-8EAE-ECAEF3187A46.thumb.png.f982a9c18e35d0731f89be042e1194f4.png

A wedge of High Pressure coming East out of Eastern North America/Canada also helps with the build of higher pressure over the U.K. A general decrease in rain and showers for places. 

By Christmas Day (144 hours), the latest GFS, UKMO and GEM runs show this.

12Z GFS

37D5C144-47B1-479A-A232-56E075CCC01C.thumb.png.49e40392a8b55377078d184a7535dba6.png

12Z UKMO

BBF75ADD-A4ED-4849-AB4F-9A884654D24C.thumb.png.89b16cd85b87e0274a45026af536dcde.png

12 GEM

4C642D3C-7B69-444A-A274-8DB051490FDC.thumb.png.4b0de8e353cd2274155cea8745ca4d25.png

Not all exactly the same (GFS seems the most amplified with the U.K High). Nevertheless, these 3 runs all show High Pressure over and to the East of the U.K. How bright it will be would seem to depend on the High Pressure’s exact position, but looks dry for most, if not all, parts of the U.K with some mist and frost overnight, likely. Particularly under clearer skies.

Fairly big change compared to the possible Northerly or North-Westerly incursion the models had been hinting at for Christmas Day. Enough time for changes to still occur for this day, but while it may not be white - snow-wise, there is the chance of frost, and it would personally beat having the Atlantic and its wind and rain. ??

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

UKMO vs GFS Crimbo. Not a million miles off each other. And the threat of a mild Xmas seems to be receding for my location. Dry and frosty for the UK. 

UE144-21 (8).gif

UE144-7 (1).gif

gfseu-0-144 (3).png

gfseu-1-144.png

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

TBH UKMO is a pretty big improvement on the 00z run for me-

And i dont see masses of energy going over the block to our east..

Hopefully the ridge can build north and drag in some colder dews etc from the cooling continent for christmas week

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

Low Res isn't particularly pretty but the improvements from the high res are welcomed.

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

npsh500.png

You can imagine what ought to be here; separate lobes of low heights west and east of the UK with a ridge up into the Arctic between. Seen the models erroneously refuse to keep them apart many times before. IMO, the tropical forcing should do enough to hold back the Atlantic troughs to our west regardless of whether we see a split-SSW delivering a quick response ahead of the main lagged one (a respectful disagreement with GP on there only being lagged response).

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
30 minutes ago, turkishfella said:

apparently we will see 270 C degree by 27th December according to wetterzentrale.de site :))))))))))

image.thumb.png.92296e5db07cb5e17b50e7f24cfbd706.png 

Phew! What a scorcher!

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Posted
  • Location: Morden, Surrey.
  • Location: Morden, Surrey.
17 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

pv sounds a bit rubbish sorry mods

Screenshot_20181219-164720_Chrome.jpg

Just on that point a lot more knowledgeable posters regarding strat right on this forum rather than a Twitter post with no explanation or evidence. 

Also to mention i find gavsweather videos over on YouTube most informative and easy to understand if you want to learn about the strat. 

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Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
6 minutes ago, london-snow said:

Just on that point a lot more knowledgeable posters regarding strat right on this forum rather than a Twitter post with no explanation or evidence. 

Also to mention i find gavsweather videos over on YouTube most informative and easy to understand if you want to learn about the strat. 

it was meant as a funny post if you read the tweet mate!

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Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

i thought it was crap ………...

I thought it was the Scat forecast...

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Posted
  • Location: Hilversum, Netherlands
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Sun, Deep Snow, Convective Goodness, Anvil Crawlers
  • Location: Hilversum, Netherlands

Back to the models please folks.....

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