Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

[IDO]

Very mild uppers for western Europe and even further east as we move past Christmas:

Not sure where the MetOffice is getting this easterly from as I don't see an obvious route from a trop led pattern?

The problem we have is in this holding pattern we have, we are giving the strat PV plenty of time to get its act together, making trop led help for any downwelling rather unhelpful:

That PV is not what we want to see? Any attempt to ridge from wave 1 Atlantic pushes meet a stubborn PV to our north! All this will seemingly do (till we get the mid-Jan SSW input) is enforce that UK Block. As I have been thinking, the SSW is going to be make or break for UK cold as the current repeating pattern remains bad for the UK cold picture.

[Ventnor Viking]

The position of the HP is obviously crucial here and Im sure there will be some interesting variations within the models over the next few days, especially with to how far north it pushes.

Also worth pointing out, HP upper air temps can sometimes be higher than surface temps especially when frost and freezing fog are involved.

[Methuselah]

Nowt jaw-dropping about today's 06Z...so it's over to see what the FV3 can come up with...? Only a few weeks till it becomes the real thing, anywho...

Edited December 19, 2018 by Ed Stone

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, IDO said:

Very mild uppers for western Europe and even further east as we move past Christmas:

Not sure where the MetOffice is getting this easterly from as I don't see an obvious route from a trop led pattern?

The problem we have is in this holding pattern we have, we are giving the strat PV plenty of time to get its act together, making trop led help for any downwelling rather unhelpful:

That PV is not what we want to see? Any attempt to ridge from wave 1 Atlantic pushes meet a stubborn PV to our north! All this will seemingly do (till we get the mid-Jan SSW input) is enforce that UK Block. As I have been thinking, the SSW is going to be make or break for UK cold as the current repeating pattern remains bad for the UK cold picture.

The METO models may be better at handling SSW so may see an Easterly the GFS doesn’t , ignore FI and expect big swings - don’t be surprised if we see a beast modelled in FI in the next run, this can happen during SSW periods!! All is shaping up, January still has a better than normal chance of being something special that’s for sure. 

[Singularity]

I have a very strong impression that the models are in posession of the payload but fumbling with the trigger.

The fast cycling of the GWO may be causing this as the models tend to make too much of the westerly kick in the N Atlantic during the declining AAM phase - you can really see this in GFS’ persistent behaviour at the 7-10 day range.

 

Its not the only major issue with the modelling though; most runs have a suspicious persistence of positive AO when you’d at least expect a negative trend and perhaps even a sudden flip as the immediate component of SSW response takes effect.

Ive rarely been less impressed with the ability of NWP modelling.

[karlos1983]

who stole all the jam out of the sandwiches this morning........? 

Christmas Day - Mayor Warming event well underway

ECM showing a split PV at 10hpa as early as Day 9

Apart from not seeing an instant response, I honestly do not know where the negativity is coming from..

I'm sure as hell glad I'm not buying your Christmas presents..... talk about high expectations LOL

[Glacier Point]

15 minutes ago, IDO said:

All this will seemingly do (till we get the mid-Jan SSW input) is enforce that UK Block. As I have been thinking, the SSW is going to be make or break for UK cold as the current repeating pattern remains bad for the UK cold picture.

Some conflicting views expressed here on the desirability of high pressure centred UK immediately after a strat warming..

https://twitter.com/WorldClimateSvc/status/1075165825290723333

Edited December 19, 2018 by Glacier Point

[MR EXTREMES]

even the met office have there glosea model so ecm gfs gefs glosea cfs all go for stratospheric warming.

ok so if there all wrong then might as well scrape the millions spent on them.

seriously do some research.

those on here must have internet connection to be able to post.

im an amature but can read not every good at writing but i have enough general knowledge to understand a fair bit.

the great hard work that the more skilled produce is absolutely incredible.

so there is really no need to throw the devices out the window.

ask yourselfs are any of the models showing a flat zonal onslaught.

nope none they all have there own ideas but cannot foresee exactly the outcome until the events unfold.

but the stratospheric warmings are far more accurate to predict with back ground signals to.

when you see wave activity and a vortex that's weaker than the norm and a more el nino atmospheric set up then there's enough evidence to suggest that the broadscale atmospheric state is about to switch.

some parts of the uk have already had a taste of winter look at summer look at last february 2018 stratospheric record breaker.

wouldn't surprise me if the vortex struggles to continue as it is now. 

and the met office have stated publicly that stratospheric modelling is very good at predicting them.

and id punt for more warming as we proceed through jan feb.

[MR EXTREMES]

5 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

Some conflicting views expressed here on the desirability of high pressure centred UK immediately after a strat warming..

https://twitter.com/WorldClimateSvc/status/1075165825290723333

my understand that the heights building over the uk are not due to the up and coming warming event.

and also the strat event will only enforce the developments of our block. 

[Ventnor Viking]

2 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

my understand that the heights building over the uk are not due to the up and coming warming event.

and also the strat event will only enforce the developments of our block. 

Unfortunately a SSW doesn't always mean cold and If we have a HP over us then it would make energy less progressive towards us and divert else where more than likely to our east. Its sometimes easier to go into a SSW with zonal weather as its more fluent and can be displaced far easier for a block to form.

[MattStoke]

Just a waiting game while the models try and get a handle on things. A long and boring waiting game.

The funny thing is, if we had great wintry charts currently showing people would be moaning that a SSW could actually scupper things. Instead people are moaning that the current output isn’t wintry. Can’t win really.

[frosty ground]

26 minutes ago, IDO said:

Very mild uppers for western Europe and even further east as we move past Christmas:

Not sure where the MetOffice is getting this easterly from as I don't see an obvious route from a trop led pattern?

 

You do realise that temperatures can swing rapidly over the continent right?

So positive anomalies day 5 

A few days later we have negative anomalies.

The we get your random 300 hour chart which is positive again

I doubt the Met's Output will be derived from one GFS operation run especially one that is not even in the time frame of the forecast in question. 

[Chesil View]

1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

You do realise that temperatures can swing rapidly over the continent right?

So positive anomalies day 5 

A few days later we have negative anomalies.

The we get your random 300 hour chart which is positive again

I doubt the Met's Output will be derived from one GFS operation run especially one that is not even in the time frame of the forecast in question. 

The Meto,s output will not be derived from any GFS product at all.

[booferking]

Postage stamps are getting interesting..

Edited December 19, 2018 by booferking

[Glacier Point]

Just a reminder. Stratospheric time scales are extremely slow. Modelled effects of the warming not likely to show until 7th January at the earliest. That's still a few days yet before it gets into GFS range. 

[frosty ground]

2 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

The Meto,s output will not be derived from any GFS product at all.

That's partly my point

The other part is that the temperature in that region can swing rapidly. 

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, booferking said:

Postage stamps are getting interesting..

 

Just about to post this , 6/7 looking good and hopefully that number grows by the 06z GEFS tomorrow. 

[ITSY]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Just about to post this , 6/7 looking good and hopefully that number grows by the 06z GEFS tomorrow. 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=6&ech=384 

Indeed they are - several members (albeit a minority at this stage) showing some *very* interesting scenarios as the UK Block gravitates NW or NE. The first batch to do so in significant numbers...

[Seasonality]

38 minutes ago, IDO said:

Very mild uppers for western Europe and even further east as we move past Christmas:

Not sure where the MetOffice is getting this easterly from as I don't see an obvious route from a trop led pattern?

The problem we have is in this holding pattern we have, we are giving the strat PV plenty of time to get its act together, making trop led help for any downwelling rather unhelpful:

That PV is not what we want to see? Any attempt to ridge from wave 1 Atlantic pushes meet a stubborn PV to our north! All this will seemingly do (till we get the mid-Jan SSW input) is enforce that UK Block. As I have been thinking, the SSW is going to be make or break for UK cold as the current repeating pattern remains bad for the UK cold picture.

Deliberate misrepresentation of the output. Briefly milder further east then turning much colder later in the run. But you know that and you chose to represent a snapshot of one day. I really struggle to understand why you keep doing this.

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, ITSY said:

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=6&ech=384 

Indeed they are - several members (albeit a minority at this stage) showing some *very* interesting scenarios as the UK Block gravitates NW or NE. The first batch to do so in significant numbers...

Keep an eye on the PARAs FI

[bluearmy]

22 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

Some conflicting views expressed here on the desirability of high pressure centred UK immediately after a strat warming..

https://twitter.com/WorldClimateSvc/status/1075165825290723333

So it’s a good thing according to that sample of data ....... approx 75% below normal temps for mid feb to end March according to that  

[booferking]

6 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

Just a reminder. Stratospheric time scales are extremely slow. Modelled effects of the warming not likely to show until 7th January at the earliest. That's still a few days yet before it gets into GFS range. 

Would you disregard some of the 6z GEFS are could there be another driver producing the eye candy prior to SSW..

[Mr Frost]

The GFS and ECM are about as much use as a catflap on a submarine or jumping up and down on a concrete trampoline at the minute if you are looking for a hint of snowfall.

We just all need to remain calm and composed for the remainder of the month - hopefully as we enter January we then see glorious UK and Ireland snow filled charts come into a reliable timeframe. 

Ah for it to be December 2010 again...this chart brings back all those snowy memories. 

Have a good day.

[weirpig]

Nice looking Para

[karlos1983]

lets have some more WAA into the pole 

Cracking Para