Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

[northwestsnow]

Will be interesting to see ECs take on the strat as GFS para has also backtracked in this regard..

[markw2680]

5 minutes ago, SteveB said:

If we are going to see anything cold from the strat developments, then I strongly feel this won't be until mid Jan. Until then we will just have to put up with our usual  winter weather.

Hopefully around this time next week we might start to see the kinda charts we want see in the outer reaches of FI

Lol first this week then next week then the week after, nobody knows and neither do the models atm. They are no more right this morning than the 12z yesterday! Until there’s some consistency it’s all up in the air, there is no point in guessing the weather won’t be good until mid jan! A lot can change in a week and we are still in December 

[SteveB]

Just now, markw2680 said:

Lol first this week then next week then the week after, nobody knows and neither do the models atm. They are no more right this morning than the 12z yesterday! Until there’s some consistency it’s all up in the air, there is no point in guessing the weather won’t be good until mid jan! A lot can change in a week and we are still in December 

We will see.....

[IDO]

8 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Not much agreement at 144t between latest ECM and GFS runs. Perhaps ECM and GEM closest to the same evolution. Not sure where UKMO is heading. All a bit confusing and must say frustrating for the hunt for cold. Same really for where I am heading to shortly , Western Canada. We surely must see some consensus with the main models soon for Christmas !!

C

@MattHugo81: Yet more charts of worth. Yesterday's 12Z EC splits the vortex by 240hrs. Could argue still some sort of bridge between the individual vortices but damage has been done. Note 10hpa wind reversal (U60N -1.8m/s) Other piece of good news the 00Z UKMO is an outlier for Xmas. https://twitter.com/MattHugo81/status/1075282685856309248/photo/1

 

[Dennis]

For now mjo is looking for better postions but its still in wrong phase to give a good help for winter

[booferking]

1 minute ago, Dennis said:

For now mjo is looking for better postions but its still in wrong phase to give a good help for winter

MJO looks to be heading for circle of death in last updates would that be right?

[Dennis]

Just now, booferking said:

MJO looks to be heading for circle of death in last updates would that be right?

Cod is worst scenario i hope it wil change

[carinthian]

15 minutes ago, IDO said:

@MattHugo81: Yet more charts of worth. Yesterday's 12Z EC splits the vortex by 240hrs. Could argue still some sort of bridge between the individual vortices but damage has been done. Note 10hpa wind reversal (U60N -1.8m/s) Other piece of good news the 00Z UKMO is an outlier for Xmas. https://twitter.com/MattHugo81/status/1075282685856309248/photo/1

 

Looking at the current Northern Hemisphere profile the Polar Vortex continues to show a split with many out-puts still showing the main vortex transferring to Northern Russia with the Canadian not as intense as is usual at this time of the winter season. How this verifies regarding the search for prolonged European cold is still up in the air ( to coin a phase ) If we can see the Vortex extend its influence a bit further southwards into the White Sea, things will turn quickly towards a cold scenario.

C

Edited December 19, 2018 by carinthian

[booferking]

3 minutes ago, Dennis said:

Cod is worst scenario i hope it wil change

Only two days ago we were speeding through 4,5,6 towards 7 now brakes are on again frustrating to say the least the drivers that could deliver before ssw don't seem to be playing ball..

[bluearmy]

14 minutes ago, booferking said:

MJO looks to be heading for circle of death in last updates would that be right?

Depends if you believe the gefs ........ infact, most of the models haven’t covered themselves in glory with the MJO forecasts this last month ......

fwiw, the bias corrected gefs stalls in reasonable amplification phase 5 as is the current cross model trend 

Edited December 19, 2018 by bluearmy

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

33 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

A sensible post !!

No agreement at 144 this morning, lots to be resolved, i notice GFS less inclined to show a split at 10Hpa - lets see where we are in a few days , frustrating for sure but with so much disagreement at 144 its a bit futile posting GEFS day 16 charts IMHO..

The trouble is there’s always lots to be resolved by the models. There’s also no guarantee a SSW will deliver cold for the UK.

Edited December 19, 2018 by prolongedSnowLover

[northwestsnow]

EC looks cold over Christmas..Christmas day / Boxing day in particular..

Will feel seasonal for sure..

[northwestsnow]

Just now, prolongedSnowLover said:

The trouble is there’s always lots to be resolved by the models. There’s also no guarantee a SSW will deliver cold for the UK.

Thats the nature of living on a small island im afraid..

Personally i don't buy any GFS/GEFS this morning, UKMO is an outlier acc to Matt Hugo (not sure what he means by outlier unless he has access to UKMO ensembles) ,EC looks best of a bad bunch although far from perfect.

[bluearmy]

Just looks to me like we have a mid lat high around us in a holding pattern and at some point there is a drop off of the low heights to the north so that the next amplification off the ESB raises our ridge - to our west, north or northeast is the question .....

still confused as to why people get so hung up on conditions on the 25th December ..........it’s just another day meteorologically speaking .......

Edited December 19, 2018 by bluearmy

[Duane S.]

19 minutes ago, booferking said:

MJO looks to be heading for circle of death in last updates would that be right?

Pinch of salt. 4 going into 5 nearly always produces this. Give it a week or so and it should be clearer.

[northwestsnow]

Just now, bluearmy said:

Just looks to me like we have a mid lat high around us in a holding pattern and at some point there is a drop off of the low heights to the north so that the next amplification off the ESB raises our ridge - to our west, north or northeast is the question .....

Its like you read my mind!!

I was going to reference the continuous energy sweeping into the Atlantic, its pretty much meant a snowless Dec for the UK with any blcoking unable to maintain at a latitude to benefit.

As i posted above , EC det brings a fairly cold christmas under the high-

Sounds like EC looks better strat-wise than GFS, thankfully.

[stratty]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 

still confused as to why people get so hung up on conditions on the 25th December ..........it’s just another day meteorologically speaking .......

Even weather geeks can have a romantic ideal - especially at Christmas! ;) 

[Dennis]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC looks cold over Christmas..Christmas day / Boxing day in particular..

Will feel seasonal for sure..

Not only the EC..

[northwestsnow]

6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Just looks to me like we have a mid lat high around us in a holding pattern and at some point there is a drop off of the low heights to the north so that the next amplification off the ESB raises our ridge - to our west, north or northeast is the question .....

still confused as to why people get so hung up on conditions on the 25th December ..........it’s just another day meteorologically speaking .......

Because (from my perspective) its much more preferable to have snow or a cold high - nothing worse than the local brass band belting out 'away in a manger'  in the wind and rain!!

Im sure they would agree !

Edited December 19, 2018 by northwestsnow

[booferking]

So i think it's a case of enjoy the run up to Christmas eat your turkey dinner nothing to see here for a while.

[nick sussex]

The UKMO is atrocious this morning , although it might be an outlier doesn’t mean it won’t verify . It’s been peddling this descent into the abyss for several days .  It adds a warm southerly together with a phase tragedy of the low to the west with the main troughing .

Satan himself couldn’t have written a more horrifying set up ! Anyway now that I’ve got the UKMO out of my system the rest of the outputs look like having high pressure close to the UK , pretty calm with a chance of some frost depending on where exactly the high sets up.

I think we have to wait to see the effects of the SSW , things can change quickly with that in the background . I’ve yet to see models deal with those well so model reliability is likely to head south for a time .

[ICE COLD]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Just looks to me like we have a mid lat high around us in a holding pattern and at some point there is a drop off of the low heights to the north so that the next amplification off the ESB raises our ridge - to our west, north or northeast is the question .....

still confused as to why people get so hung up on conditions on the 25th December ..........it’s just another day meteorologically speaking .......

Yes don’t know why people are in downer mode , nothing is expected until early Jan . Next week high pressure and cool/seasonal and after that the fun begins. If we get to the 31st and there’s still no sign of cold then start worrying.

[Spah1]

Boring output at the moment. 

Just wishing days away waiting to see the effects of the sww and where any HLB will set up. 

[frosty ground]

2 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

00Z no better, think we're looking at a very mild 2 weeks, no frost even, sigh, another disgusting deep FI, never rate early Jan anyway for cold

 

Looks distinctly average, flow from the south west early on bringing a lot of cloud with it which limits the frost

[mountain shadow]

53 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Yes don’t know why people are in downer mode , nothing is expected until early Jan .

Perhaps nothing is expected NOW until early January and perhaps even until mid January, but don't forget we've already had two failed Easterly attempts during November and December with numerous teases from the model outputs for decent cold weather.

And of course there is no guarantee the impending SSW will even deliver.