Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

[johnholmes]

All I want, for Christmas is, a link to the northern hemisphere markings re Met, gfs and ecmwf, used to have it but unable to do so now-please help someone?

thanks

 

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

All I want, for Christmas is, a link to the northern hemisphere markings re Met, gfs and ecmwf, used to have it but unable to do so now-please help someone?

thanks

 

Is this what you are after:

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/

[shaky]

10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The ecm spreads show the previous ops with the systems heading west to east are still evident in the eps 

Is that a good thing or bad

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Is that a good thing or bad

just means previous ops are still on the table ..... the 00z suite had no clusters past day 10 and the spread at day 10 means that there was too much variation post day 10 for the model to show only six defined clusters 

[shaky]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

just means previous ops are still on the table ..... the 00z suite had no clusters past day 10 and the spread at day 10 means that there was too much variation post day 10 for the model to show only six defined clusters 

Icon massively different at 120 hours again!!much more amplified and ridge straight up central western uk and iceland region!!cold air to the east!!takethat as a positive again!

[ANYWEATHER]

Some one has dropped a Bomb in the computer models...!  But good news the cold flerts with us during Christmas  

[Mike Poole]

Yep,ICON 18z step towards UK high over Christmas, quite a big one here T120, then 12z at same time:

I know some are concerned about the heights over Spain, still evident here. I think the same mechanism for pushing the UK heights further north will deal with those in due course.  Nothing evident on the models to do either at the moment, once the SSW happens expect that to change - and it to get very busy in here!

[karlos1983]

10 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yep,ICON 18z step towards UK high over Christmas, quite a big one here T120, then 12z at same time:

I know some are concerned about the heights over Spain, still evident here. I think the same mechanism for pushing the UK heights further north will deal with those in due course.  Nothing evident on the models to do either at the moment, once the SSW happens expect that to change - and it to get very busy in here!

Yes some patience needed, because we don’t know for sure yet what sort of SSW event we are going to have. Will it be a split PV or just a displacement? Which then has an affect on how quickly the trop responds. All a bit up in the air as to how/when this plays out at the surface for now. 

Loving it though, really interesting and enjoying reading everyone’s thoughts. Cracking stuff! 

Edited December 18, 2018 by karlos1983

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

18 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yep,ICON 18z step towards UK high over Christmas, quite a big one here T120, then 12z at same time:

I know some are concerned about the heights over Spain, still evident here. I think the same mechanism for pushing the UK heights further north will deal with those in due course.  Nothing evident on the models to do either at the moment, once the SSW happens expect that to change - and it to get very busy in here!

As long as you haven’t got widespread heights over Europe, heights over Iberia are of no worry to me. As I’ve said before, the 1947 floodgates were opened by Spanish heights migrating north. I wonder if that year was caused by a SSW in December? 

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 12z mean in the extended range, high pressure gradually becomes the main feature across much of the uk so depending on cloud cover, some areas would see an increasing likelihood of frost and fog, perhaps the far north staying more unsettled with a westerly flow..interestingly, the postage stamps indicate some snow potential into early january...fingers crossed Jan 2019 will bring our first major taste of winter!!! 

[tight isobar]

Talk of a tri-vortex maybe flattering...to the 'vortex'..

A child awaiting the caining of the oversized teacher...would be more relivent...going forwards..

Lets not 4 get..even a modeled umpff..in the canadian/Alaskan sector...in latter frames of ops..is likely a light year away scenario..as the kiss chase of synoptics...plays just that...catch..and kiss...

But with non pouting lips!!!

[Dennis]

Well some fun ☺with the cards

[Nick F]

The elongated and narrowing upper trough extending from Ireland SW to the Azores seems to have been causing the models all kinds of problems over recent runs, but it looks like on this evening's runs that it will phase with another surge of the Atlantic jet that extends troughing over the Atlantic towards the UK later next week. But to be honest, I think the models could be underestimating the staying power of the ridge building north over the UK early next week, so could see further checks on the Atlantic trying to return.

[johnholmes]

1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

Is this what you are after:

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/

Thanks Mike, not the one I had some time ago but it looks to give the same thing I want so thank you for that, got it saved now

[Mike Poole]

4 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Talk of a tri-vortex maybe flattering...to the 'vortex'..

A child awaiting the caining of the oversized teacher...would be more relivent...going forwards..

Lets not 4 get..even a modeled umpff..in the canadian/Alaskan sector...in latter frames of ops..is likely a light year away scenario..as the kiss chase of synoptics...plays just that...catch..and kiss...

But with non pouting lips!!!

I don't know what that means but it is pure poetry! Pub run is certainly interesting suggesting an earlier movement of heights north?  I feel unable to comment on the pouting lips...

[tight isobar]

5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I don't know what that means but it is pure poetry! Pub run is certainly interesting suggesting an earlier movement of heights north?  I feel unable to comment on the pouting lips...

..

Yeah a little over elaborate..

Looking through the 500 geo pot heights..and the trop/strat notions..

Its very encouraging stuff..for both dissplaced-voritices..and wave pulses..

With some action noted...but still not in evidence..via the ops..and there supporting...

I'll try do a basic summary/analysis..soon as !

Edited December 18, 2018 by tight isobar

[Weathizard]

GFS 18z is dire, no surprise there’s not much comment!

[Snowman.]

18z making quicker work of dismantling the Vortex. Other than that pretty much a snore fest.

Not that it means anything at this range but I suppose it's reassuring.

Edited December 18, 2018 by Snowman.

[MattStoke]

Just now, Weathizard said:

GFS 18z is dire, no surprise there’s not much comment!

High pressure to the south and low pressure to the north. Utter crud. Thank goodness there's many twists and turns to come.

[Mike Poole]

Yep, think I'm on the same page as you, have been for a while probably. Go January!

Think this one is going to split:

Pub run at T264

Edited December 18, 2018 by Mike Poole

[matty40s]

2 hours ago, ZK099 said:

Another point- as someone else mentioned, we definitely don't want to see that cold go into Greece. As I've said, the model output is so volatile at the moment there's absolutely no point paying attention to it. However, when the block does set up, we really don't want the cold heading into Greece  

I believe the Greeks have had a referendum and also don't want that cold...I remember the gaps under their doors....

With the models setups I don't think Greece will go as cold as last year - an exceptional one...

..and anyway, there is a country here just waiting for a decent Winter.

[E17boy]

Evening peeps

Hope everyone is ok

well just wanted to say we all look out for the future but also treasure the past. Exactly 8 years ago on this date Dec 18th 2010 it was a Saturday and London had heavy snow. It's a day I will never forget and a day which I wish gets repeated again and again.

i just hope winter will show us its wonderland again soon.

DEAR SANTA all I want for Christmas is UPGRADES  - search for our winter wonderland continues 

night night all

[feb1991blizzard]

The GFS 18z is absolutely dyer.

[Man With Beard]

EC clusters T168 — white Christmas chances are dead, sadly:

Into the New Year - that sign for a big UK block remains. Could be very cold underneath, maybe just maybe a stray front could give something a touch snowy at times (bit of an ask if the block is big) 

 

[MattStoke]

Disgusting 18z. Absolutely hideous and probably the worst I've seen this winter. High pressure to the south and low pressure to the north throughout. Looks completely at odds with all the background signals and strat forecasts, thank goodness. I would post some charts, but people would probably vomit looking at them.