Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Think the word to sum up the 12z GEFS would be POTENTIAL

 

 

Even if it doesn't lead to cold at the first attempt I believe there will be more chances as January progresses and hopefully one of them will lead to the UK hitting the snow jackpot 

[SLEETY]

1 hour ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Greece yet again in the freezer! Haha

Yeah that’s been a common theme over recent decades,utterly ridiculous.If that happens again soon,forget about any cold for these shores

[That ECM]

21 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Think the word to sum up the 12z GEFS would be POTENTIAL

Quote

 

A few days ago I was suggesting that the ridge might go further north and bluearmy correctly stated that there was not one gef that was interested in this being a solution.  The theme has been for this to become more of a possibility. The later output of the gfs has the high coming back down over us. I would suggest that in future output the high might not sink as much as currently being shown. Will be interesting to watch but imo the theme of the output is very encouraging. Place that high few miles higher and things would be very different at the surface 

Happy for people to tell me I’m wrong it’ll make a nice change from Mrs that ecm

[Danielvn]

34 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Think the word to sum up the 12z GEFS would be POTENTIAL

 

 

Even if it doesn't lead to cold at the first attempt I believe there will be more chances as January progresses and hopefully one of them will lead to the UK hitting the snow jackpot 

Remember that anomalies don’t equal pressure.

[Djdazzle]

I have no problem with optimism, but whenever I see the word “potential” I know that most of the output is poor for cold.

Looking towards January now in the hope for anything decent.

[Guest]

So we await a strat warming to move the UK high otherwise it’ll likely hangover us, sticking with the summer trend.

Not so bad. Better than cold rain.

[Guest]

Ensembles from past two 12z runs. Three to four days of messiness before they hone in on a solution me thinks.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Let’s hope we see a lot more members going for sub -10 850s in the coming runs

Edit DCee beat me to it.

Edited December 18, 2018 by prolongedSnowLover

[JBMWeatherForever]

Output looks increasingly interesting as we head towards the end of the year, following a settled and potentially frosty Christmas. I think we may like where things end up though. Models still playing with how we are going to get there, but I think 'there', looks increasingly like a potent northerly or north easterly. Once the evolution is settled then the commencement of this cold spell may well be brought forward as well, perhaps before New Year !  

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

12 minutes ago, That ECM said:

A few days ago I was suggesting that the ridge might go further north and bluearmy correctly stated that there was not one gef that was interested in this being a solution.  The theme has been for this to become more of a possibility. The later output of the gfs has the high coming back down over us. I would suggest that in future output the high might not sink as much as currently being shown. Will be interesting to watch but imo the theme of the output is very encouraging. Place that high few miles higher and things would be very different at the surface 

Happy for people to tell me I’m wrong it’ll make a nice change from Mrs that ecm

looks like Santa will be delivering one of the best presents we could ask for with the stratospheric warming which will hopefully deliver the goods during January 

 cheers Santa   

10 minutes ago, Danielvn said:

Remember that anomalies don’t equal pressure.

 not intending this to be rude or too blunt but taking the GFS P / FV3 that is rolling out as an example 

 looks a pretty good guide to the high / low pressures and that is at  288h

[Jonathan Rhodri Roberts]

6 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Let’s hope we see a lot more members going for sub -10 850s in the coming runs

Edit DCee beat me to it.

Cardiff 850mb GEFS ranges from -7 to +9C between Christmas & NY so could go either way but at least the precipitation spikes are much lower than recently

[Seasonality]

Nice. ECM puts me back in cold air for Xmas day. Nice feed of cold air for boxing day too. Nothing decided this far out though. 

[nick sussex]

The ECMs been really shown up . Some abysmal modeling and now it’s had to perform an embarrassing u turn .

Not sure what’s happened to it but it’s fall from grace continues.

[karlos1983]

As mused by David ( @Bring Back1962-63 ), the Russian HP indeed grows in strength/size on this run!

 

look at the size of that thing !!! 

Edited December 18, 2018 by karlos1983

[mulzy]

The ECM is very decent IMHO.  Best NWP output this evening.  Let’s hope it’s onto something.

[Seasonality]

6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The ECMs been really shown up . Some abysmal modeling and now it’s had to perform an embarrassing u turn .

Not sure what’s happened to it but it’s fall from grace continues.

Ha ha. Look at the difference. Hilarious isn't it. 

[swfc]

58 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The ECMs been really shown up . Some abysmal modeling and now it’s had to perform an embarrassing u turn .

Not sure what’s happened to it but it’s fall from grace continues.

Is that the model at fault or the atmosphere nick that's in such a state of flux ??

Edited December 18, 2018 by swfc

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

GFS P / FV3 ends with the high pretty much centered over the UK but there is a small effort to move the high towards the NW / Greenland 

 

as far as the strat it is still going at a snails pace trying to make up its mind whether it is going to be a split warming or not (more runs needed hopefully it gives us a better idea by the end of the week)

[Mike Poole]

FV3 strat chart, hints of the split remain at the end of the run:

Withe the exception of one or two runs yesterday during ' wobblegate' this model has been quite consistent with a signal for a split to varying degrees.  Very comfortable with where the models today seem to be pointing us re January, levels of confidence head back to where we thought we were on Sunday.

[Methuselah]

And the GFS FV3 ends on a similar note to it's older brother: a cold, calm and foggy start to the New Year. With an outside chance of bitten fingernails...

[MattStoke]

Appears that we will end the year settled and chilly with high pressure in charge. Then it’s a case of whether high pressure will retrogress to our north. Something I doubt the models will have a handle on for a while.

[snowray]

The ECM T240 chart is very close to something very special, potential there for a decent Scandi block this time if everything falls into place, and look at all that cold air moving into Europe, just want that directed a bit further to north.

[Mike Poole]

Now that things are being firmed up strat-wise, seems like a good time to have a look at the last 8 CFS runs for January.  Here seamless level pressure anomaly:

Strong -AO signal on all, -NAO signal on most. 

[bluearmy]

35 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The ECMs been really shown up . Some abysmal modeling and now it’s had to perform an embarrassing u turn .

Not sure what’s happened to it but it’s fall from grace continues.

Do you think it will verify below the gfs at the relevant timescale ?  

4 minutes ago, ... said:

I'm impressed that you know exactly what's going to happen over the next 240 hours.  Maybe it's volatile because it is correctly detecting that the current atmospheric state is also volatile.

indeed - worth checking out my post in the strat thread .....

 

 

[MP-R]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Personally i suspect the best we can hope for this side of 2019 is a sceuro block - thats not bad news as it will be cold, OK inversion cold, but i think we will need to wait for the SSW to hit the PV where it hurts to  open the door for retrogression to more northerly latitudes..

 

 

Anything to help places dry out and cool the surface would be grand! I remember a lot of places nearby that had flooded in late December 2002 then froze solid in January 2003.