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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Glasshouses HG3
  • Weather Preferences: Snow upon snow upon SNOW!!!
  • Location: Glasshouses HG3

3 way split vortex!!!... have we seen this somewhere before???...

sorry mods

5CBB7675-C607-4CFB-B8BF-B2112EE6362C.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

GFSOPEU12_171_2.png

More improvements on the 12z, if we can get more WAA to Greenland around Christmas we may even get the high sustaining itself to our NW but it seems to be over the UK for now.

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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs

gfsnh-0-168.png?12

Hello what's going on here?

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
2 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

gfsnh-0-168.png?12

Hello what's going on here?

Hopefully not another slider gate episode,holy mother of god !!!! Yes mayby a push northwest here

Edited by swfc
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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Things are looking good! Set the theme!

GFS & UKMO @ 144 a good starting post! Close enough at D6! 

4F59C7AC-A4B9-4E53-A54A-8D5ECAD8BE22.thumb.png.a1db7e028e8c9480d39cf35a7b1a0086.pngAE03970C-C0B1-47EC-B6DA-5B11DEF54C31.thumb.gif.5e4799e81e7376f1ad681e82be2fadb0.gif

GFS at 168 good in my book. 

77B4BADD-2249-4462-AE60-ED15DA7C1DFC.thumb.png.a76b494815dab4d28320e304d361e451.png

I’ve seen enough for now!

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Much better strat output from the GFS today Feb

Like a switch has been flicked again today

Yes, its like our prayers have suddenly been answered.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
18 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Anyone willing to have a stab at the conditions on the ground christmas eve on UKM 144?

Looks dry , i think?

GFS looks an improvement on the 6z @144 hours..

Yes NWS.......”It’s the most Wonderful time of the year”

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
5 hours ago, carinthian said:

A dream day ski-ing on the Aineck Mountain. Last one for 6 weeks before embarking on my trip to Vancouver via Sussex for a few days over Christmas. Well what a messy outlook from most NWP models for Christmas. None really showing the same out puts at 168t. Anyway , this what our shows this morning ( very latest ) and yes a Easterly drift over Southern Britain on Christmas Day as the Atlantic trough pushes slowly and erractically NE from the Azores towards the Channel with possible shallow low circulation. Pressure rises to follow across the UK  generally in the period 168-240 . A lot of uncertainty in the medium longer term charts , so verification expected to be low. Interesting thoughts about ECM runs which seem to indicate much lower heights to the NE in the run up to New Year but as yet has little support from the main models but not to be discounted.  As I say all a bit messy but further developments could move at a pace just before Christmas , so one to watch.

C

48415875_10157045884238628_8474522988190892032_o.jpg

Well there you have it. Our model spot on with a Easterly across Southern Britain on Christmas Day . Some low temps over parts of Scotland under the high cell.

 C

GFSOPUK12_171_13.png

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Well the latest using the 12z outputs showing the model prediction for Saturday 22 December 12Z. I said on the first day I had no idea how it would pan out. In fact the 12z issue has been remarkably consistent. One has only to look at the two sets of charts issued each day, now down from 168h to 96h.

Test 2.doc

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos

This month (so far) and next week re forecasts seems to be v similar to December 1978. NYE and into January 79 were pretty good! Just saying.

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

The has been fired!!!..

And the reverberations felt-noted!!..

The momentum and sync will now sniff the ramifications, as they are played out...and model conciencious.... and matching 'should begin alignment...

As we have now gained....-as thought-..

And the countdown to cold....opens..

Starter...then main course.

Note-compares of raws through todays suites..

I'll wack some data/support/snaps/Analysis..after the 12z ecm...

Winter lifts off!!!!

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

High pressure with surface cold would be a blessing until we get a more favourable pattern. It will cool down the ground nicely.

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Posted
  • Location: Woodham Walter Essex,between Danbury and Maldon 42 m asl
  • Location: Woodham Walter Essex,between Danbury and Maldon 42 m asl

I for one don't really mind a less than perfect Christmas ,because the real prize looks like it's on the horizon.

if ,as anticipated,we have a stonking January ,I would like to thank all contributors to the forum,and the mods as it may not be a peaceful new year for them.

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