Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

[Pembroke Dangler]

7 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

It's not. Summer sun posted one but it hadn't updated. 

 

Here is today's. 

 

Through the first half of January, there is an increasing likelihood that colder weather may begin to dominate with a greater chance of seeing east or northeasterly winds. Should this occur, then wintry conditions are possible in eastern, southern and central areas with western parts of the UK staying relatively drier. Though should any Atlantic frontal systems try to make inroads western areas could also see some snow. Although signals suggest that a cold spell is the most likely scenario in early January, the extent and longevity of the cold weather is uncertain. Wet, windy and mild weather may still be possible at times.

The last time the Met were this bullish about a potential cold spell of weather was in November 2010 the rest as they say is history. Could we be on the cusp of a memorable winter period? Stay tuned for some jaw dropping charts to start appearing in the next 10 days I recon. I’d gladly sacrifice Xmas week and New Years for a spell of cold in January. 

[Had Worse]

4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Oh GFS (P) is a beaut

Yep, theres a smiley beast in there if you look carefully.

[Methuselah]

30 minutes ago, stodge said:

Afternoon all

I suspected this morning's output would restore some colour to people's cheeks and get the curtains a-twitchin'.

For those of us who love cold without the snow, GFS FI is delightful with both OP and Parallel showing substantial mid-latitude blocking and as I constantly have to remind people, it's perfectly possible to get an ice day in London without a flake of snow on the ground if you get a serious inversion and both OP and Parallel - I know the 2m temperatures aren't suggesting that at the moment but I'm absolutely convinced IF we got a set up like:

We would have fog and frost as long as (and it's a big proviso) we can avoid embedding cloud in the circulation. This is why I quite like an HP forming from the south over land as they have less cloud in the embedded circulation than an HP coming in from the east or west.

Anyway, all a long way off and of course the big positive is the split PV now showing on both OP and Parallel which is significant IF it plays out.

All this will be too late for Christmas and New Year celebrations I suspect but promises a lot for January if the cards drop right.

Good points, Stodge...Given largely cloudless skies, I'd expect to see ice-days before the third night frost...?

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

17 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Where is Mr Murr ??? 

Hold on I’ve found him . 

He’s cutting and levelling the grass ready for the dumpings of snow in Jan ?

Thank god the "Murr sausage" is covered up 

[Pembroke Dangler]

4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Oh GFS (P) is a beaut

The U.K. high will migrate nw towards Greenland dragging the higher heights away from Iberia allowing the pv to drop over Scandi and an undercut of low pressure meeting it heading to where the high used to be over Spain and caboom locked in cold. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

33 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Next step is to get rid of the uncertainty and longjevity bit and get a pure cold (non faux) forecast right out to the last 3rd of Jan.

And what better way to do that than keep on with the split SSW runs

Much better strat output from the GFS today Feb

Like a switch has been flicked again today

[shaky]

35 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Goodness me that is huge upgrade from Exeter!!!.

They must be really confident ..

East or north easterly?

Yes please!!

Cant remember one forecast from them proving to be correct over the last few months!!but id rather have them talkin bout cold and snow than nuttin at all!!could see some pretty upgrades!!what dates are they talkin about mate

[karlos1983]

8 minutes ago, Pembroke Dangler said:

The U.K. high will migrate nw towards Greenland dragging the higher heights away from Iberia allowing the pv to drop over Scandi and an undercut of low pressure meeting it heading to where the high used to be over Spain and caboom locked in cold. 

Exactly! Piece of pish! ? Dance!  

[Mike Poole]

It looks like yesterday's slight wobble in terms of expectations for a cold January is behind us now.  Good output today, particularly the strat charts from GFS, FV3 and ECM too.

[JeffC]

1 hour ago, karyo said:

There will always be areas that find themselves in a rain shadow. A straight easterly may keep you relatively dry but a northeasterly will do the same to another location.

agreed, but an oblique hit will always catch more rather than a straight on from either N, E or even S or W ?

Anyway it's academic at this stage, just on the wish list not to end up with nowt again!

[Dennis]

See the latest AO to christmas days

[Shunter]

40 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Where is Mr Murr ??? 

 

He was last seen giving CPR to a snowflake in New Ash Green !

[Met4Cast]

I’m wondering if the SSW is the reason the Met Office being so bullish especially given little signal for anything significantly cold on the models that we can see.

The EPS has high pressure too far South to be noteworthy, EC46 doesn’t really indicate anything of note until at the end of the run though given the fairly wild swings in that output the last 2 weeks it’s difficult to take anything it shows seriously. 

Models will be all over the place upto and during the SSW, once it’s occured we should start to see things become a little clearer once models start to work out the impact it’ll have. 

Signals remain good for colder weather, we’re just not seeing that in the NWP outputs at the moment..

[karlos1983]

7 minutes ago, Dennis said:

See the latest AO to christmas days

NAO going negative as well. Improvement from yesterday!

[SMU]

42 minutes ago, No Balls Like Snow Balls said:

Thank god the "Murr sausage" is covered up 

Im here & the grass is trimmed ready

 

Im trying to find the time to update the my winter NH thread - However for anyone that didnt read it its here-

 

If anyone does browse - We are homing in fast on one of the key features which was a record breaking negative zonal wind anomaly - The forecast for the SSW for 15 Dec is going to be around a week out- which along a timeline of about 5 weeks is very pleasing

The date that the record goes is ~ 22nd to the 1st being the lowest ever-

My other highlight being that we could beat the record -AO daily score will be under threat most certainly in January - With an outside chance of the Monthly AO record of Feb 2010 going as well.

The fireworks are coming soon guys.... - just not in time for Crimbo.

 

Edited December 18, 2018 by Steve Murr

[booferking]

 

Edited December 18, 2018 by booferking

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

6 hours ago, karlos1983 said:

Anyone know where I can view the Ensembles for Reykjavik? Thought they could be viewed on Metoeciel, but it appears not.

 

I know you already got a response but I use these 2 websites https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs.php and this to find the latitude / longitude of a location https://www.latlong.net/ here is Reykjavik https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=64.126518&lon=-21.817438&ville= 

37 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Oh GFS (P) is a beaut

yes good to see the PV / coldest air shift to the eastern side and hopefully if an easterly does develop it will be from Siberia with love 

Good to see the positivity returning in here, long may it last

All I want for Christmas is...... further upgrades from the GEFS and other models please 

 

 those dates might be slightly early but nice to see them heading in that direction, looks like the first ridge of high pressure may start to develop on or just after Christmas so one to keep an eye on where it heads if it does develop.

[SLEETY]

think meto are going for something similar to permutation 7 on gfs ,perhaps

Some of the models  have been toying with the idea of retrogression to greenland ,then collapsing the High,hopefully the retrogression signal will become stronger over the next few days.

[northwestsnow]

OK, time check, its the 18th of December..

Zonal winds on the downward 

Warming in the strat - where we are right now-

at 72 hours

by 192

We can see core cold shoved back towards Greenland..

by the end 

So, i think we need some patience, don't be suprised to see the models attempting to build a strong Greeny PV late Dec  , however, if the strat charts are near accurate, it wont be staying there long..

First thing i would expect to see is a developing -AO, then with any luck, some very tasty charts for coldies to enjoy.

Thats the routemap i have in my head, fingers crossed!!

 

 

[karlos1983]

You’ve gone full circle @northwestsnow good man. Like yer style ?

[bluearmy]

53 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

I’m wondering if the SSW is the reason the Met Office being so bullish especially given little signal for anything significantly cold on the models that we can see.

The EPS has high pressure too far South to be noteworthy, EC46 doesn’t really indicate anything of note until at the end of the run though given the fairly wild swings in that output the last 2 weeks it’s difficult to take anything it shows seriously. 

Models will be all over the place upto and during the SSW, once it’s occured we should start to see things become a little clearer once models start to work out the impact it’ll have. 

Signals remain good for colder weather, we’re just not seeing that in the NWP outputs at the moment..

We can’t see the clusters on the ec 46 - perhaps some week 3/4 clusters are getting the block a little further nw than the mean - it was over Greenland by week 4. the run jumps around a lot, day by day so I expect those clusters are required to make sense of it 

32 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

think meto are going for something similar to permutation 7 on gfs ,perhaps

Some of the models  have been toying with the idea of retrogression to greenland ,then collapsing the High,hopefully the retrogression signal will become stronger over the next few days.

Exeter aren’t seeing a cold flow before the end of week 2 which is when gfs and gefs run to .... any frigid charts showing on current output are not in line with their thinking which is a block in our vicinity 

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

You’ve gone full circle @northwestsnow good man. Like yer style ?

 

4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

You’ve gone full circle @northwestsnow good man. Like yer style ?

In my defence i did keep my nerve and announce my optimism when all around were losing their faith last night 

Edited December 18, 2018 by northwestsnow

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

3 hours ago, abbie123 said:

The meto yesterday hinted colder weather coming from east this where I’m putting my money.

It is very likely to move onto that, once things start it’ll start moving quickly, watch for model outlook upgrades to continue over this coming week re cold outlook.

 

BFTP

Edited December 18, 2018 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[ZK099]

This is from strat expert Judah Cohen. Personally I've never seen the PV being modelled to split into more than two vortices before. Will be interesting to see if it happens, and if it does what effect it has. Also suggests that a split is now likely due to a second heat flux being modelled. Watch this space. 

[mountain shadow]

5 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

 watch for model outlook upgrades to continue over this coming week re cold outlook.

 

BFTP

We've being doing that for the past six weeks!!