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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Ashtead, nr Epsom Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Cold/Snowy Winter! Just SEASONAL!!
  • Location: Ashtead, nr Epsom Surrey
1 hour ago, Johnp said:

I feel that way about the Exeter 16-30 dayers as well.

What's the harm in making it easier for us all and putting them in one thread?

Basically, in winter I'm interested in

- cold and snow

- how do we get there (strat)

-is there any agreement (Met Office updates)

That's all I'm interested in. 

Agreed!!! It would be great if The Hunt for Cold could include these and the "normal" Model Output thread stuck to just that?!

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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

10Hpa temps are at -80 in the vortex core at day 16

gfsnh-10-384.png?18

But not in the last GFS(p)- which is due to become the new operational in January.

gfsnh-10-384-4.thumb.png.2cc3f424b35a9cc142bdd57e6126a7b9.png

Is everyone giving up on this SSW before it's even happened??

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Posted
  • Location: Chertsey, Surrey
  • Location: Chertsey, Surrey
22 minutes ago, weathergeek said:

Thank you so much for such an informative post. I may not get all of it but I still learn from it and your research and knowledge is most gratefully received!!! What a little gem you are to have in our forum!!!

Try dat....

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Just now, bobbydog said:

But not in the last GFS(p)- which is due to become the new operational in January.

gfsnh-10-384-4.thumb.png.2cc3f424b35a9cc142bdd57e6126a7b9.png

Is everyone giving up on this SSW before it's even happened??

It was looking a lot more impressive just two days ago. However, a lot can change (deteriorate) from a modelling perspective in that time.

I maintain, the split SSW event was imperative for the progression into Jan. When you consider a descending wQBO and a SPV not satisfactorily pulled apart, getting any meaningful HLB in place going forward is going to be a slog (NOT saying it would be impossible by any means).

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

It was looking a lot more impressive just two days ago. However, a lot can change (deteriorate) from a modelling perspective in that time.

I maintain, the split SSW event was imperative for the progression into Jan. When you consider a descending wQBO and a SPV not satisfactorily pulled apart, getting any meaningful HLB in place going forward is going to be a slog (NOT saying it would be impossible by any means).

Could we still get a split?

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, Don said:

Could we still get a split?

I still say its possible around 6th - 10th Jan, but if we dont see better modelling soon then the PV will start to edge back towards the pole and we would be in trouble then.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

@BLAST FROM THE PAST

Can't remember, i know you said Look North not East at some point, were you thinking the same period as i am now?, i have a suspicion we might see a Northerly gathering momentum in the next few days modelling for around Jan 1-5th

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Posted
  • Location: York
  • Weather Preferences: Long warm summer evenings. Cold frosty sunny winter days.
  • Location: York

Why cant people accept the models havent a clue. They are numerical models based on recent past experiences and responses we are in territory not modeled before wait and in the next 4 days output will be totally different

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Reasonably decent parallel coming up.

What in the strat ? 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
7 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

What in the strat ? 

A tiny bit better but i was thinking a Northerly might be possible at the end although not 100%, the mid latt high might get a bit further North though giving the faux cold fraternity some pretty intense fog / frost, i probably should'nt call it faux cold though as the 91 Dec spell gave us -8c

 

EDIT : no good anyway - tomorrow needs a good start.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

OK, my view across all the output today.  First firming up on a largely settled and unfortunately non snowy Christmas period.  I'll take that, now, to be honest.  The real interest is later, and yes it does rely on the situation in the stratosphere.  

We need to see some ECM runs that include the SSW, should be available in next couple of days.   

FV3, well it's gone from split champion back to displacement, but (maybe) to a more favourable position, here T360:

image.thumb.jpg.e84895b559b4c0e1dfd4de0eae04bc98.jpg

Any road, the tail could still be lopped off, I suppose.

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

fantastic post @Bring Back1962-63  hopefully it will ease some of the worries on here.

A few from the 18z GEFS, again there are some that throw some ridges of high pressure into the mix but the nearest in terms of going towards an easterly is P12 (although I suspect it might be the 2nd week of January onwards that the potential for the easterly becomes greater but we will wait and see)

tempresult_xuv9.thumb.gif.b8368eda396db39462839a066f97ae58.gif

gensnh-12-5-384.thumb.png.aed11fd04454a09bda65277c246cf7c8.png

looks like P7 gets near to a split warming 

77642093_gensnh-7-7-384(1).thumb.png.5cbb55ff441d15a4fdc498c580996d9a.png 

P14 also hinting at this

gensnh-14-7-384.thumb.png.e3ede5c05e4f75e0e96420f4a91c23ad.png

even if it ends up being just the displacement event if we go into the new year with the strat looking like what pretty much all of the GEFS members show it as then it would be very surprising if this didn't lead to us having a pretty good shot at something colder during January / February depending on how fast the effects of the warming take to appear on the day to day pressure charts and where the blocking sets up.

Certainly is going to be fascinating to see how this all unfolds and hopefully we end up on the cold / snowy side of things  ❄️

The phrase slowly slowly catchy monkey springs to mind in this situation with patience being the key word in the next few weeks.

 

 

Edited by Kirkcaldy Weather
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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Thank you David @Bring Back1962-63 A fantastic post full of detail, pleasure to read. 

Very exciting times ahead, this time next week there could well be a few jaws dropping! 

13ED88D2-7608-4319-A4AD-0C054EC82819.thumb.jpeg.8644f88b20f6958a235ad7754490abdc.jpeg

 

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
29 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Thank you David @Bring Back1962-63 A fantastic post full of detail, pleasure to read. 

Very exciting times ahead, this time next week there could well be a few jaws dropping! 

13ED88D2-7608-4319-A4AD-0C054EC82819.thumb.jpeg.8644f88b20f6958a235ad7754490abdc.jpeg

 

Yes lets hope to see some nice charts start to come out, I feel that this is the low point in the output, we have this every winter of course. The best runs are usually the ones that turn up from nowhere after a bleak period like the current one, a bit more patience no doubt is required.

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

hope the meto updates aren't leading us up the garden path,regarding this cold spell,their updates haven't been that accurate over the past few months.lets be honest as it stands we seem a million miles away from a severe wintery outbreak.

I thought the next easterly attack would be in a couple of weeks from the last one,that looks unlikely,could be that mild weather prevails into at least mid jan now.even meto not as confident,in latest update.

UK climate always has sucked regarding cold weather,let's be honest about it

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Posted
  • Location: North West of Ireland
  • Location: North West of Ireland
17 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

 

Wasn't the initial stratospheric warming to lead to a displacement, with the split to occur sometime in January due to further warming, according to the stratosphere experts here on Netweather??

Edited by Bricriu
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

What have we here GFS, very different to the 18z by day 8-  in a good way hopefully. Just need that small low to break down and we could be on a winner.

6F903FA9-8B3A-49B1-9EA2-659E10897F32.png

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
11 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

What have we here GFS, very different to the 18z by day 8-  in a good way hopefully. Just need that small low to break down and we could be on a winner.

6F903FA9-8B3A-49B1-9EA2-659E10897F32.png

Those are some big changes very early on, why did the operational not see this earlier? 

Edited by ArHu3
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Posted
  • Location: Consett, Co Durham 270m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic Storms, Snow, Snow and more Snow!!
  • Location: Consett, Co Durham 270m asl
6 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

What have we here GFS, very different to the 18z by day 8-  in a good way hopefully. Just need that small low to break down and we could be on a winner.

6F903FA9-8B3A-49B1-9EA2-659E10897F32.png

The differences at such a timescale are staggering, you can see big changes from pretty early on in the run aswell. Think we will see a lot of this over the coming days whilst the models try to get a grip on things.

Doesn't mean it will lead to cold, but just goes to show there's no need for doom and gloom. Will be a few days yet before things become even slightly clearer

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