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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Frosty start on Christmas day?  Para 12z 

gfsnh-0-186-1.png

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GFS para a slight improvement on the 6z..

Becoming cold and frosty christmas eve onwards..

🙂

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3 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Frosty start on Christmas day?  Para 12z 

gfsnh-0-186-1.png

High pressure ridging North West, centred West of the UK seems the form horse imo. 

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2 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Frosty start on Christmas day?  Para 12z 

gfsnh-0-186-1.png

The high is more amplified again. The trend is our friend...

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4 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

The high is more amplified again. The trend is our friend...

And I will be concentrating on developments to our ENE and NNW.

Netweather GFS Image

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14 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

High pressure ridging North West, centred West of the UK seems the form horse imo. 

@Seasonality that is good for Central Europe looks like northerly by 26.12 🙂

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Just out of curiosity if a SSW occurs and a split vortex will any forcing come from the Pacific ? I'm old school dust in the wind type and Siberian swans flying west!! trying to get to grips with the strat ete.tia

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Nice to see the GFSP nudging back towards yesterday`s 06Z

 

gfsnh-1-204.png

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Evening, here are some more swingometers updated until the 12z's

image.thumb.png.b42804b54641f4c7a299e8484a5bf4b3.png

The forecast for christmas day looks similar to what it has done for recent days... mild but not especially so, a small chance of something colder and a fair bit of uncertainty remaining

image.thumb.png.8e0c0e4ed181ffd1f1c9dbfdf3eaab4f.png

For New Years Day the ensembles show very low heights to our NW in quite a few of them. Either a strong westerly or anticyclonic appears most likely at this early point.

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Christmas day still looking like we could see something colder best chance of snow will probably be in Scotland

gefsens850London0.thumb.png.95fc6e79925ededeea05e3612c4fed01.pnggefsens850Inverness0.thumb.png.940b9b59582be0772bb141729389df5f.png

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2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Christmas day still looking like we could see something colder best chance of snow will probably be in Scotland

gefsens850London0.thumb.png.95fc6e79925ededeea05e3612c4fed01.pnggefsens850Inverness0.thumb.png.940b9b59582be0772bb141729389df5f.png

Just going by those a hint of an easterly. If it was northerly you would expect Inverness to be colder.

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23 minutes ago, ZK099 said:

Just thought I'd share this. Quite pertinent 

Screenshot_20181217-180409_Twitter.jpg

62-63 and 78-79 indeed were epic but those other winters were very mediocre, well at least we have a lottery ticket 

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2 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

62-63 and 78-79 indeed were epic but those other winters were very mediocre, well at least we have a lottery ticket 

That is america though?

Edit: that tweet

Edited by Stuie W

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3 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

That is america though?

Edit: that tweet

Yes

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6 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

62-63 and 78-79 indeed were epic but those other winters were very mediocre, well at least we have a lottery ticket 

1977/78 was also a cold and snowy Winter though, although probably overshadowed by the following Winter of 1978/79. 2002/03 however was pretty pants here, although I think some other regions did okayish  during this Winter. Obviously not fantastic though, but at at least 3 of those years went on to produce good Winters for cold and snow.

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D503E061-9286-4797-A9BB-63E8540AA29B.thumb.png.8851049a9a03a5a679fcaaec4d0c7d5d.png

Someone shoot me now ☹️

😴😴😴😴 zzzzz

i’d rather wind and rain. 

Cosy, fire on. 

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Just now, northwestsnow said:

Not sure i like the look of EC- high sinking 168-192..

N'ly coming if it went further than 240 though - you'll see signs by then.

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

N'ly coming if it went further than 240 though - you'll see signs by then.

will need some energy to go into the southern are for that to happen.. 🙂

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If it wasn’t for the promising background signals and strat forecasts, it would be dead on here. The model output is God awfully boring.

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I can`t fathom out a cold scenario from here...

 

ECH1-216.png

ECH0-216.png

Edited by Stuie W
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4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

N'ly coming if it went further than 240 though - you'll see signs by then.

way east surely? 

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