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Ireland Regional Weather Discussion 13/12/2018 Onwards

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3 hours ago, booferking said:

Ens 12 for the reload please.

gensnh-12-1-324.png

Tonight's 18z GFS picking up the theme.  

Keeping my feet on the ground as still a long way to go.

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Latest Met Office long ranger has us in with a shout for Christmas time. Not a bad update for a month away.

Wednesday 11 Dec - Wednesday 25 Dec

This period looks likely to bring outbreaks of rain interspersed with brighter spells and showers to most parts. Temperatures seem likely to remain around or rather below average for the time of year, especially in the north and northwest with a risk of snow across the Scottish mountains.

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Next week is not without interest for some of us on here, cold with any precipitation possibly falling as snow, elevation will help and we know what we can get from a north westerly direction.

 

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There is nothing in the way of any longevity of cold in the models for the next month I think, we will reliant on brief ridges bringing the chance of snow and we might be lucky and get one around Christmas time. No real mild on offer either as the jet, when not buckling, will be mostly to the South.

 

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Love the way the model thread is getting excited about 300+ charts. It's never gonna happen. Not with the ups and downs the models have shown the past week. It's just hard to know what's going to happen. 

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Will be happy enough to see a few frosts and a bit of sun over the weekend.

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As long as all this rain gets lost, I don’t care what weather we have. The east coast is saturated at this stage!

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5 hours ago, booferking said:

 

IMG-20191130-WA0023.jpg

AHHH STOP!!!! I came here to get away from the depressing news!

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So, we're still chasing after a few let downs already.

Next possible chance is around the election on the 12th/13th.

 

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3 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

So, we're still chasing after a few let downs already.

Next possible chance is around the election on the 12th/13th.

 

Jez is this going to be one of those chase seasons (again) lol. The Netweather winter forecast doesn't read too promising either

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13 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

So, we're still chasing after a few let downs already.

Next possible chance is around the election on the 12th/13th.

 

Gfs brings first snow event early morning  on the 10th but we all know the gfs has tendency to bring these events to soon just to push them very down the line and water them down.

gfs-0-180.png

gfs-1-174.png

gfs-2-174.png

gfs-2-180.png

gfs-2-186.png

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2 hours ago, ForeverPomeroysnow said:

Jez is this going to be one of those chase seasons (again) lol. The Netweather winter forecast doesn't read too promising either

All the long rangers are pretty poor.  I think the best we can hope for is the odd Northerly /North Westerly giving us a chance for a day or two.

Certainly can't see a proper cold spell greater than 7 days.

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1 run this morning showing snow and every media outlet has jumped on the wagon. Every second post on Facebook forecasting the worst winter in 100 years ?

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3 hours ago, ronan said:

1 run this morning showing snow and every media outlet has jumped on the wagon. Every second post on Facebook forecasting the worst winter in 100 years ?

Every ffing year. I note some excitement on the MT this evening again 

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1 hour ago, ForeverPomeroysnow said:

Every ffing year. I note some excitement on the MT this evening again 

I haven't been in there this evening yet. Must get caught up. It would be really nice to look forward to some snow falling. I'll get my fill of snow in January as on another 10 day Tour of Iceland. I should just book a one way ticket there. Lol

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Election day could be interesting, excitement building in mod thread. Next week looks like a proper cool down with temps below 0 and low day time maxima 

8EDCFDC5-DF45-41F9-A86C-59B928CC5507.png

D73B870F-8230-4A62-89E6-3EDC5C09A582.png

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Ha what a crazy day. From the great charts from this morning to the Oh lemon Charts of tonight. Could the UKMO have been right all along. ?? 

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7 hours ago, ronan said:

Ha what a crazy day. From the great charts from this morning to the Oh lemon Charts of tonight. Could the UKMO have been right all along. ?? 

It appears so. That's why the UKMO is the boss.

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Hi Guys

Back on board chasing the white stuff. Yesterday's models really shook off the cobwebs but as usual they had people running for the sleighs, they'll never learn. We still look good for N and NW airflows which (selfish I know) we do well from in the NW. The 6z indicates that the upcoming weeks plus still holds lots of interest. 

graphe3_1000___-7.3_54.6_Omagh (5).gif

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28 minutes ago, Sperrin said:

Hi Guys

Back on board chasing the white stuff. Yesterday's models really shook off the cobwebs but as usual they had people running for the sleighs, they'll never learn. We still look good for N and NW airflows which (selfish I know) we do well from in the NW. The 6z indicates that the upcoming weeks plus still holds lots of interest. 

graphe3_1000___-7.3_54.6_Omagh (5).gif

Certainly little interest snow wise next week now. Any snow around the election has gone and we;re looking at wet and windy North Westerlies.

I'm not bothering to look anymore than a week ahead as the models have been very poor at modelling ridges to then flatten the pattern later.

I would be happy enough if we get lucky around Christmas time though.

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