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Ireland Regional Weather Discussion 13/12/2018 Onwards

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Why is it so quiet in here.?

i thought everyone would be buzzing about the possibility of snow tonight.... 

If you head up to the highest peak of the Sperrins between midnight and one in the morning you MIGHT catch a glimpse of a snowflake!...., and I thought winter was over!

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6 minutes ago, Sparky72 said:

Why is it so quiet in here.?

I'm pretty much in Winter's over mode. Maybe the slight chance of something decent from mid to late February if we can get an atmospheric reaction to the expected MJO phase 8, but I've pretty much given up now.

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3 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

I'm pretty much in Winter's over mode. Maybe the slight chance of something decent from mid to late February if we can get an atmospheric reaction to the expected MJO phase 8, but I've pretty much given up now.

Well ECM wants to bring in an Easterly next week so maybe winter is not done with us yet....no beast from the east but could upgrade if general idea is correct.....or it could be just another wild goose chase....all will be revealed 

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Hmmmm, haven’t been on in a while, had a look at weather for weekend ahead, stormy Friday and Saturday by the looks of it. Possibly a little snow this evening for a few based on radar

6D596F1B-433C-4EAD-8B0F-9C535BA9BBF4.png

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Read from a knowledgable poster in the focussed mod discussion a few days ago that the SSW downwelling is to reach the troposphere this week, but that the models aren't interested, so the advice is to take a break from model watching for maybe a week... that's what I've been trying to do.  The constant excitement of potential cold getting wrote off by mild incursions has been exhausting lol  Hopefully next week will have more encouragment for us!

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12 minutes ago, Xciteuk said:

Read from a knowledgable poster in the focussed mod discussion a few days ago that the SSW downwelling is to reach the troposphere this week, 

The downwelling reached the trop a couple of weeks ago when we had a stonking Arctic high.

Any high latitude blocking will now be due to something else. 

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1 minute ago, gary1365 said:

Is there a glitch on the radar tonight 

Screenshot_20190206-221900_Netweather Radar.jpg

Just another joke from the many jokes the models have thrown at us this winter quick look out your window I'm pink looks out window aims eyes at lampposts see it pouring rain hears sniggering come from computer.?

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Yeah, mild enough here and raining. But then again, that should be no surprise to you all! ?

 

6 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

I'm pretty much in Winter's over mode.

Are you not buying the pretty plausible (in my eyes anyway) run from the ECM? Most models going for increased amplification in the 144 sort of area, leading to pretty good charts from ECM, especially for us *eastcoasterners!

*Yes I did make that word up!

Edited by Rocheydub

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6 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

Yeah, mild enough here and raining. But then again, that should be no surprise to you all! ?

 

Are you not buying the pretty plausible (in my eyes anyway) run from the ECM

We've had plausible snowy runs all Winter long,  until there's snow in my back garden, I ain't buying nothing.

?

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8 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

We've had plausible snowy runs all Winter long,  until there's snow in my back garden, I ain't buying nothing.

?

Buying a new rain coat may be required

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Ah sure look it, I know it's unlikely, but there has been a marked increase this evening across various model suites to increase amplitude to our North and in some cases, north east. It may be a glitch, it may be a trend. But it has (yet again this friggin winter) piqued my interest. 

 

I just booked our flights to Italy in the summer, so I now have something to look forward to. If we only had snow this winter, we could have gone to Kerry again!!!! ???

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3 minutes ago, Weegaz said:

Friday looks windy out west, could be periods of 70+ mph winds

FCC60E3D-6CBC-44EC-8487-65722D1AC73C.png

Yep, and looks like the very strong winds could last over 36 hours on the island. Very dangerous. A centre lower than 960 predicted too. Nasty looking storm this.

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1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

The downwelling reached the trop a couple of weeks ago when we had a stonking Arctic high.

Any high latitude blocking will now be due to something else. 

Ah. My knowledge is very limited, and as a newbie I try to pick up what I can from the more experienced people on here, including yourself MS ?

Stodge wrote a post on the focused mod thread back on Saturday 

When he said the downwelling was to reach the troposphere in the next week, I assumed he meant the SSW... And to be honest I was a bit confused because I've read a few conflicting reports on the topic... However, it gave me a bit if hope that things *might* change in the next week...but we'll see ?

 

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Arpege showing the winds to peak during the middle of the night into Saturday.

Sustained winds for nearly 36hrs as rochey alluded to

0E997A29-3E55-4A6C-8168-35EFB6766284.png

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Just looking at the warnings for tomorrow. Have to travel Strabane, Derry direction.

Good to know as long as I don’t venture over the border I’ll be safe! Met Eireann have an amber warning for Donegal but met office only have a yellow warning for NI so as long as I don’t venture into Lifford I should be ok!!

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58 minutes ago, Sparky72 said:

Just looking at the warnings for tomorrow. Have to travel Strabane, Derry direction.

Good to know as long as I don’t venture over the border I’ll be safe! Met Eireann have an amber warning for Donegal but met office only have a yellow warning for NI so as long as I don’t venture into Lifford I should be ok!!

MetEireann should at least overlay MetO warnings over the north to avoid this stuff. I don't see any technical problems to it after all in the new Metoffice beta page there is no border on Ireland at all lol

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13 minutes ago, parrotingfantasist said:

MetEireann should at least overlay MetO warnings over the north to avoid this stuff. I don't see any technical problems to it after all in the new Metoffice beta page there is no border on Ireland at all lol

I have been told by a reliable source that the Met Office will be updating this beta page on 29th March to show a hard border ?

Edited by Bottled Snow

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1 hour ago, Sparky72 said:

Just looking at the warnings for tomorrow. Have to travel Strabane, Derry direction.

Good to know as long as I don’t venture over the border I’ll be safe! Met Eireann have an amber warning for Donegal but met office only have a yellow warning for NI so as long as I don’t venture into Lifford I should be ok!!

It's west facing coasts that face the brunt really at that stage... Worth reducing speed all the same and been more cautious!

Call it a Rochey-warning!

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