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Ireland Regional Weather Discussion 13/12/2018 Onwards

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10 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Worst model output of the Winter today. Complete collapse of anything wintry out to month end.

aye. Its all gone pear shaped to be honest on current output. Still hoping it changes after xmas 

Edited by Neiller22

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Lads/Girls honestly the best teleconnections technical discussion bar none is in this site below go have read tamara matt Hugo bring back 1962-63 isotherm snowy hibbo all post in there regularly and what they have to say for us weather wise is😱

Pop in have a read.

https://www.33andrain.com/topic/868-teleconnections-a-more-technical-discussion/?page=22

Edited by booferking

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49 minutes ago, booferking said:

Lads/Girls honestly the best teleconnections technical discussion bar none is in this site below go have read tamara matt Hugo bring back 1962-63 isotherm snowy hibbo all post in there regularly and what they have to say for us weather wise is😱

Pop in have a read.

https://www.33andrain.com/topic/868-teleconnections-a-more-technical-discussion/?page=22

cheers mate. 

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3 hours ago, Neiller22 said:

GFS u rascal!! 

Looks fairly boring to me?

Was it the attempt at ridging you're referring to?

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9 hours ago, booferking said:

Lads/Girls honestly the best teleconnections technical discussion bar none is in this site below go have read tamara matt Hugo bring back 1962-63 isotherm snowy hibbo all post in there regularly and what they have to say for us weather wise is😱

Pop in have a read.

https://www.33andrain.com/topic/868-teleconnections-a-more-technical-discussion/?page=22

Ah, the old teleconnections. Many a time I've seem them predict snowmageddon only for some unforeseen circumstance to occur to kybosh the whole thing. 

I'm still confident of a cold spell in January but until i see some evidence of it in the tropospheric model output I'll not get too excited.

 

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5 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Looks fairly boring to me?

Was it the attempt at ridging you're referring to?

Yes. Small steps but an improvement from yesterday. I’m trying not to give up here!😂

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Did any of you's have a read in that new site was wondering were all the talented posters went now i know.😎😎

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1 hour ago, booferking said:

Did any of you's have a read in that new site was wondering were all the talented posters went now i know.😎😎

Just had a look there. Quite a site for the more experienced weather geeks for sure.

They seem to be getting excited about a Eastern coastal storm around New Year, it appears to show Greenland heights too, so maybe we'll get a Northerly shot around then also.

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Certainly an NE or Easterly favoured outcome. Great for eastern  areas of Ireland but poor for central and western areas. Hopefully there will be a variance of wind direction so everybody can be in the game. 

Edited by Neiller22

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3 minutes ago, Neiller22 said:

Certainly an NE or Easterly favoured outcome. Great for eastern  areas of Ireland but poor for central and western areas. Hopefully there will be a variance of wind direction so everybody can be in the game. 

Yea I'd be happy with northerly to north-easterly to easterly to north-easterly to northerly to north-westerly to northerly to north-easterly to easterly back to northerly to north-westerly to northerly to north-easterly then to an easterly that persist to end of March that's all..😅

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1 hour ago, booferking said:

Yea I'd be happy with northerly to north-easterly to easterly to north-easterly to northerly to north-westerly to northerly to north-easterly to easterly back to northerly to north-westerly to northerly to north-easterly then to an easterly that persist to end of March that's all..😅

😂💥

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Another relatively poor day for cold model output ticks by. 

We wait to see if the strat warming impacts favorably on the trop.

 

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32 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Another relatively poor day for cold model output ticks by. 

We wait to see if the strat warming impacts favorably on the trop.

 

something has got to give or met office have got this horribly wrong. Just hoping they are seeing much better charts than we are as cold looks miles away to be honest!

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Each day long range meto update being watered down and delayed. Not a good sign if u ask me. Gone generally is the word snow to possible wintry weather. I think we will be here middle of Jan still waiting! 

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Things are just stuck in limbo and seems to be going on forever!! It's a wee bit head frying. 🤬

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Panic not gents. Split strat now getting closer on the longer range model output. I think it’s safe to say the SSW will deffo happen, just hoping it favours us in the trop set up after!

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They say the darkest hour is before dawn and that's exactly where we are with the trop. Model output.

I think we're still at least three to four weeks away from anything proper cold.

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17 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

They say the darkest hour is before dawn and that's exactly where we are with the trop. Model output.

I think we're still at least three to four weeks away from anything proper cold.

If we are lucky. Seriously if we don’t get cold from all these wonderful background signals I think we should all find a new hobby! Because signals this good do not come around very often! Next 3 weeks crucial for me in what way this winter turns out. 

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48 minutes ago, Neiller22 said:

If we are lucky. Seriously if we don’t get cold from all these wonderful background signals I think we should all find a new hobby! Because signals this good do not come around very often! Next 3 weeks crucial for me in what way this winter turns out. 

I'm just waiting for the comment of "It was an amazing split in the stratospheric PV unfortunately one the lobes split over to Greenland and the trop PV mirrored the split resulting in mild South Westerlies........................and a bitterly cold Greece!

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4 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

I'm just waiting for the comment of "It was an amazing split in the stratospheric PV unfortunately one the lobes split over to Greenland and the trop PV mirrored the split resulting in mild South Westerlies........................and a bitterly cold Greece!

I would say that is the form horse. Unfortunately getting cold weather  of any form in these shores is getting harder with every passing  year. 

Edited by Neiller22

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Dont be looking to far ahead lads i can see a cold surface high setting up around Xmas nice frosty before ssw takes effect..

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7 minutes ago, booferking said:

Dont be looking to far ahead lads i can see a cold surface high setting up around Xmas nice frosty before ssw takes effect..

Hope ur right 

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