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Ireland Regional Weather Discussion 13/12/2018 Onwards

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4 minutes ago, ronan said:

Surely that's a boom for us??

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You would think so, this will be in range of the high res tomorrow night so we'll have a better handle on it.

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Yeah it's certainly looking good. Let's hope for no downgrades from here on in!

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23 hours ago, Weegaz said:

108hrs

 

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84hrs

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ABB85BBE-CB52-4A90-A54F-F6B3F1FCC0B7.png

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image.thumb.png.d6d055e57c255f7233375ea458630c2a.png

 

Watching the Derry automated forecast each day I see the temperatures dropping all the time.  Two days ago it was slating Tuesday for 6C, now its around 4C. I don't think I will see snow on Mon/Tue but with my inexperience I am very confident midland/upland areas are going to get some good amounts of snow!

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Pretty consistent from the GFS, North Westerly on Monday bringing rain followed by back edge snow. The winds then veer North Easterly then Easterly with wintry showers for Eastern counties, cold everywhere with severe frosts possible. As we move through next weekend, we see troughs pushing up from the South and where the precipitation meets the cold air the chance of significant snow.

For many though, i fear we will be watching the Eastern coasts of Britain in envy for a wee bit before we get our chance.

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GFS has consistently shown snow for my location starting 3pm Monday lasting most of Tuesday on the automated version. I never place much hope in that but the consistency is a plus. Ideally a couple of frosts to lower the ground temperature before it comes or it stops at night and freezes for a couple of hours before morning because there's every chance of a ground thaw given how mild it's been. 

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Met Éireann - It will turn very cold on Sunday night under clear skies and just light variable breezes. Lowest temperatures will fall to between zero and minus 4 degrees with a widespread sharp frost. 

Monday will be cold day and frost will only slowly clear in the morning. Moderate southwesterly winds will freshen ahead of a band of rain pushing into western areas in the afternoon and quickly spreading eastwards during the evening. The rain will turn to sleet or snow in parts of the north as top temperatures reach only 3 or 4 degrees there and elsewhere afternoon temperatures will be just 5 to7 degrees. 

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1 hour ago, StormyWeather28 said:

Great pics guys. @jules what altitude is that? 

About 500 to 600 m.asl. so quite a modest altitude compared to pictures of northern Alps from villages above 1000m. Last week. If you are interested our highest level snow height measured in recent history was actually 490cm in March 2005. I was home that year in march and we were jumping from 5m high rock in to snow fields and sunk neck deep, never before and after I have seen anything like that,as it was not a drift just pure level snow cover. 

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The least said about the ECM the better. Just confirms that the cold and snow is not guaranteed. 

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1 hour ago, jules216 said:

About 500 to 600 m.asl. so quite a modest altitude compared to pictures of northern Alps from villages above 1000m. Last week. If you are interested our highest level snow height measured in recent history was actually 490cm in March 2005. I was home that year in march and we were jumping from 5m high rock in to snow fields and sunk neck deep, never before and after I have seen anything like that,as it was not a drift just pure level snow cover. 

That would be great to experience at least once. Altitude certainly helps. I would love to spend a winter here up 500 600m with a polar W\NW would be buried ha

Edited by StormyWeather28

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2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

The least said about the ECM the better. Just confirms that the cold and snow is not guaranteed. 

Aye must I admit tho I got a laugh reading the model thread. I hope for snow on Monday night, not caught up about 7 to 10 days ahead 

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ECMWF gives me in Slovakia 30+cm but very little in IE,some snow in NI though

download (22).png

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I’m impressed with the consistency of the gfs runs

Hopefully we’re radar and lamppost watching come late Monday evening into tuesday

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18z seems to have a tad colder uppers for the PM blast, which makes all the difference. Consistent!

Edited by parrotingfantasist

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The 18z makes a move for a Greenie High but doesn't quite make it there in FI. Time will tell and pretty soon! 🙂

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21 minutes ago, booferking said:

South Easterly for long enough would produce for us @mountain shadow plenty of convection of the irish sea..

Here's hoping the GFS and Meto runs are on the ball and the 12z ECM was just an aberration. 

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Well,  the overnights are not great and the Easterly looks a goner now, however, there could be some North Westerly shots over the next ten days. 

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32 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Well,  the overnights are not great and the Easterly looks a goner now, however, there could be some North Westerly shots over the next ten days. 

Oh dear, the Model Thread will be fun today then 😂

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Staying clear of the model thread. Someone keep us updated. 🤣

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PersonallyI am hoping for a clear night in Monday, first visible lunar eclipse for 11 years that will be visible to us, weather permitting we will have a blood red moon on show 👍

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