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Ireland Regional Weather Discussion 13/12/2018 Onwards

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16 minutes ago, Neiller22 said:

And the met office outlook changes again (just like the wind) though this time its an upgrade. Honestly nobody has a clue whats going to happen so clearly  i would look no further than 4 days ahead at most 

14 days away though. Manyana, manyana.

I have a funny feeling that the snow will arrive but it will last for about 3 days and that will be that.

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We will be terribly unlucky if we don't get a decent cold spell this winter. Terribly!

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3 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

We will be terribly unlucky if we don't get a decent cold spell this winter. Terribly!

yep agree but i can honestly see were MS is coming from too

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Woeful icon  going further downhill but UKMO and GFS pretty good it has to be said, Looks very snowy again on tues on certain models so a bit of consistency for once

Edited by Neiller22

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Tuesday still looking good folks

132hrs

AD05D512-F147-433C-9C8C-CD741AF06E09.thumb.png.7e82fba95636a2e5ada41ae9353c0059.png

versus 156hrs yesterday 

460FA2B2-7C6F-4780-A35B-231A3ECBC6B8.thumb.png.11b57ad39abd48eb16eb9cd9ad986f5c.png

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This is far from decided yet. Perhaps from now though we can start to get some better consistency.  Well I love in hope.....

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Lamp post watch the night showers could be of the wintry in nature never know might see are first flake of snow the night hard times 😅the night temperature and DP are tumbling..

Edited by booferking

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25 minutes ago, StormyWeather28 said:

Hard for me to get excited about an Easterly. Never delivers for me. 

Yup easterlies are pash for us in the West 

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10 minutes ago, ForeverPomeroysnow said:

Yup easterlies are pash for us in the West 

Yeah but better for eastern areas. Why cant we just get a good old country snowfall

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Really heavy sleet at the minute. Was trying it's best to snow on the Glenshane. Big flakes mixed in. If only it was s bit colder!

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1 hour ago, Neiller22 said:

Yeah but better for eastern areas. Why cant we just get a good old country snowfall

I believe it is possible if we get entrenched cold air and weather fronts moving up from the south east across the country. Our island appears to have 3 micro-climates of N, E&SE and W&SW. I guess a long stretch easterly could deliver but they are rare, as we know. Anyway looking like we may yet get some of the white stuff having consumed way too much of the black stuff over Christmas! 

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27 minutes ago, ronan said:

Really heavy sleet at the minute. Was trying it's best to snow on the Glenshane. Big flakes mixed in. If only it was s bit colder!

Dew points must be slightly high? Air temp here is at 0c at the minute, dropped early this evening so should be icy tomorrow am.

Edit:- yup

17570179-01C5-498B-A2B3-504EEAFE88B7.png

Edited by Weegaz

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1 minute ago, Weegaz said:

Dew points must be slightly high? Air temp here is at 0c at the minute, dropped early this evening so should be icy tomorrow am.

 

Dewpoint cant be warmer than the surface temp - So maybe your reading is slightly to low-

In a heavy shower with a dewpoint close to 0c normally a temp sub 1c is full on snow

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6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Dewpoint cant be warmer than the surface temp - So maybe your reading is slightly to low-

In a heavy shower with a dewpoint close to 0c normally a temp sub 1c is full on snow

Thanks Steve, hopefully both temp and dp drop as the radar is looking quite good for some over here for a while this evening to see a bit of snow.

Next week and beyond looks interesting, looking forward to your thought on it in mod thread

 

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It was really heavy the whole way to Derry. If only it had of been snow then we would have had a good cover. Looking forward to see what the coming weeks have in store for us.

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Decent enough models tonight but could do with the pattern edging a little further west, as based on current output most of the coldest air is going to our east. With down welling in the strat continuing and main thrust of cold still 6 to 7 days away this is certainly a possibility, although pattern could end up further east also .......The Dec 2017 slider kept correcting west right up to the day in question....It also would help keep us locked in to a colder pattern going forward if final outcome of next week's slider is further west than currently modelled .....

All to play for....

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 An easterly first after a brief PM... That just doesn't cut the mustard. Good but not good enough anymore the bar has heightened these last few days 😂. Fingers crossed we get a Greenie high first that will at wish move to Scandinavia or the other way around . 

 

 

Very Imby ofcourse but IMBY would sum up the model thread at mo.

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8 minutes ago, parrotingfantasist said:

 An easterly first after a brief PM... That just doesn't cut the mustard. Good but not good enough anymore the bar has heightened these last few days 😂. Fingers crossed we get a Greenie high first that will at wish move to Scandinavia or the other way around . 

 

 

Very Imby ofcourse but IMBY would sum up the model thread at mo.

Aye not great for the NW of our wee county but looking quite good indeed for the east of it. As you it’s all going to be IMBY I’m afraid. Great for some crap for others. 

Edited by Neiller22
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I reckon some of you are jumping the gun regarding this. Its not nailed yet. Anything can happen in these setups. In my opinion I think we will all be in the freezer soon. Have a feeling at some stage we will be looking at the Atlantic for our snow! (SLIDERSSSSSS) Lets see what the next few runs bring. Don't forget that this morning dummies were being spat out because there was no Easterly!!

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6 minutes ago, ronan said:

I reckon some of you are jumping the gun regarding this. Its not nailed yet. Anything can happen in these setups. In my opinion I think we will all be in the freezer soon. Have a feeling at some stage we will be looking at the Atlantic for our snow! (SLIDERSSSSSS) Lets see what the next few runs bring. Don't forget that this morning dummies were being spat out because there was no Easterly!!

Yep I think it could easily slip back in our favour. There will def be more ups and downs 

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Very wintry looking 12z and 18z, however,  lets see what the 0z bring tomorrow.  

Hopefully, similar but everything backed West. 

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If it backs west then it's game on. Fingers crossed anyway.

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Indeed, and no more lousy morning runs!!!

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