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Ireland Regional Weather Discussion 13/12/2018 Onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.

    A good thaw set in here about 11am. Only got above zero then. About 36 hours of sub zero! Loved it!

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    Took the Drone up for a wee shot of Derry this morning. Great to see some snow on the ground.

    good luck ireland ?  

    Definitely good to see Pom. I really have a feeling that we are going in to the freezer whether or not we see a pile of snow or not then I will settle for ice days and winter sunshine. Here is a few s

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast

    50 miles north of you, bit of cloud this morning, otherwise wall to wall sunshine, high about 3. Bird bath still frozen. Great looking at both Jupiter and Saturn yesterday and this evening.

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    Posted
  • Location: Newtownabbey -130m asl
  • Location: Newtownabbey -130m asl
    31 minutes ago, Donegal said:

    1c now and just had a 1 minute shower of sleet. Don't even see it on the radar but heard it hitting off the frozen roof and a cracking noise so went outside. Very icy.

    Radar seems to have been down for a few days now. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Antrim Town
  • Location: Antrim Town

    Hunt for snow is proving tricky, seems we have all the right notes not necessarily in the right order.  5/1 on a Belfast white Christmas bookies pushing price out.

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    Posted
  • Location: Loughmacrory, Co Tyrone. 170m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow
  • Location: Loughmacrory, Co Tyrone. 170m asl

    Some interest starting to build around the big day...has been an increase in the snow row for Omagh from the GFS 0z to 6z. Nothing major but still hanging in the game by our fingernails.

    graphe3_1000___-7.3_54.6_Omagh.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.

    Great excitement in the MOD thread tonight and with good reason. Will keep myself occupied for the next 36 hours, if it’s still there when I check back in, I’ll start to believe!

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    Posted
  • Location: Loughmacrory, Co Tyrone. 170m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow
  • Location: Loughmacrory, Co Tyrone. 170m asl

    It certainly was an enjoyable read tonight @Rocheydub! The Gefs haven't fully updated yet on meteoceil but check out how tight the ensembles are for Christmas day for Omagh. Almost certain to have, at least, cold air for the big day with a chance of seeing some of the white stuff!

    graphe3_0000___-7.3_54.6_Omagh.gif

    Edited by Sperrin
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    Posted
  • Location: Derry 106m asl
  • Location: Derry 106m asl
    3 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

    When it starts snowing, then I'll believe it!

    Maybe if we believe it , it will start snowing haha 🙃

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    Posted
  • Location: Loughmacrory, Co Tyrone. 170m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow
  • Location: Loughmacrory, Co Tyrone. 170m asl

    It seems the typical collapse of North Atlantic heights is about to happen again - though, to be fair, the models had a sniff of this quite some way out. It's always interesting to compare progression from T240 down to T0 - currently Christmas Day is around T168 (which is still too far out to call), but look at how the GFS/ECM ops have done so far for modelling it:

    GFS Tuesday vs latest run

       vs  

    ECM Tuesday vs latest run

       vs  

    Absolutely typical - the models corrected the Atlantic low up to 1000 miles east between T240 and T168. 

    However, something else is also typical - the models have corrected the new Atlantic low so much that Atlantic heights remain in situ, leading to the possibility of a second bite at the cherry a few days later. This morning's ECM clusters between T192 and T240 show a good number of ensembles going for the super-Scandi low plus super-Atlantic high.

    Either way, it's going to get messy from 24th December onwards. Probably good for snow on Northern and Western hills - for coldies at sea level, enough to keep us interested, though it's starting to look like any potential snow may not be possible on Christmas Day itself. 

    Still a bit to go, though!

     

    Looking at the synoptic outputs, EC and GFS do 'seem' to be playing around with upper air patterns that are not dissimilar to the predicted 500 mb patterns on my oft used 500 mb anomaly charts. Some kind of upper flow from a noth of west direction with surface devlopments changing the direction of flow, but overall the flow is likely to be from north of west. Just what the actual surface pattern will be on any particular time in the next 4-5 days is far from clear. Enjoy the ride those that so enjoy times like this with the possibility of cold and snow, even if it does not happen. For those, perhaps new to this 'mad house' take time to discover how to 'read' the charts and posters angle on them. It will turn colder after the weekend. I suspect with a ridge which tends to suggest mostly dry weather but I could be wrong!

     

     

    In amongst the hyperbole and petty squabbles there are some really interesting posts. I always pay close attention to @Man With Beard and @johnholmes and I note they've both mentioned the possibility of interest from a NW flow. Always good for us guys out west and I'll not complain too much if those suggestions become a reality.

    Edited by Sperrin
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    Posted
  • Location: Antrim Town
  • Location: Antrim Town

    Getting exciting in the model thread, bbc weekly forecast tempers things a little as with met forecast. Can we get a touch of snow Christmas to new year? Would make the lock down a little easier and/or benefit the lockdown. 

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    I really want a northerly. I know I'm always crying on about it ha. I would be content for the rest of the winter if we had a 3 4 day spell. A proper cold spell would help with covid as well as people would be more inclined not to travel and stay inside IMO. So a win win.

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    Posted
  • Location: Antrim Town
  • Location: Antrim Town

    Lots of positives in the charts. Worries, Mountain very negative and bbc weekly forecast not overly positive. Hard to know wether to buy gloves n hat or not!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Co.Tyrone
  • Location: Co.Tyrone

    Hopefully we will have clear skies later for this 

    _116155786_r3000220-christmas_star_as_pl
    WWW.BBC.CO.UK

    Jupiter and Saturn - the Solar System's largest planets - are set to cross paths in the night sky.

     I managed to capture them the other night from my phone so apologies on the quality!

    20201218_174404.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    1 minute ago, ForeverPomeroysnow said:

    Hopefully we will have clear skies later for this 

    _116155786_r3000220-christmas_star_as_pl
    WWW.BBC.CO.UK

    Jupiter and Saturn - the Solar System's largest planets - are set to cross paths in the night sky.

     I managed to capture them the other night from my phone so apologies on the quality!

    20201218_174404.jpg

    What time was that Pomeroy? 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    14 minutes ago, ForeverPomeroysnow said:

    Was at 5.45 on the 18th Mountain, think you need to look south west as soon as the sun drops, hopeful of getting the opportunity this evening 

    Cheers. Tried looking last night about 5.30 but couldn't see anything. There was a wee bit of low cloud on the horizon.

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    Posted
  • Location: Co.Tyrone
  • Location: Co.Tyrone
    4 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    Cheers. Tried looking last night about 5.30 but couldn't see anything. There was a wee bit of low cloud on the horizon.

    Aye and as they will be low hanging any low cloud at all will ruin the opportunity 😢

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