Ireland Regional Weather Discussion 13/12/2018 Onwards

[parrotingfantasist]

As people are saying on the model thread there is a section of posters who do nothing but ramp and ramp and even some who I think should know better typing "this will be a Winter to remember." This is what causes so much disappointment shown in here and all over the forum. 

 

Its always nice for a breath of fresh air and reality from those with moderate and evidence based views. They've like snow and cold, have just been so scarce this Winter...

[booferking]

Whats wrong with the chart below can anyboby guess?

[booferking]

2 hours ago, booferking said:

Whats wrong with the chart below can anyboby guess?

Day 16 always Day 16

[Neiller22]

Anybody getting the feeling we could go the whole winter without a dusting of snow. I am. And if we don’t get anything meaningful out of these great signals and SSW we can finally put this nonsense to bed once and for all in the years to comec

[booferking]

14 minutes ago, Neiller22 said:

Anybody getting the feeling we could go the whole winter without a dusting of snow. I am. And if we don’t get anything meaningful out of these great signals and SSW we can finally put this nonsense to bed once and for all in the years to comec

me to last winter was so good looking back now so good.

[parrotingfantasist]

I agree with you Boofer, March and snow in my head is just mushy, and the continual tip tap of dripping melt water. No thanks and if it wasn't for the last winter I think the Englanders would say something near the same.....

[booferking]

6 minutes ago, parrotingfantasist said:

I agree with you Boofer, March and snow in my head is just mushy, and the continual tip tap of dripping melt water. No thanks and if it wasn't for the last winter I think the Englanders would say something near the same.....

Yep narrow minded it saved there winter we had a great winter last year and it didn't take place in March.

[mountain shadow]

Cannot believe how mild it is out there. No sign of anything interesting in the next couple of weeks. No doubt we are looking to February now before anything happens.

[Neiller22]

2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Cannot believe how mild it is out there. No sign of anything interesting in the next couple of weeks. No doubt we are looking to February now before anything happens.

It’s s joke. Also expect met office outlook to change to early Feb, then mid Feb, then late Feb then spring next year! Honestly I never pay much attention to their long range anyway. Changes with the wind generally. They are basically basing their forecast on this SSW which is hit and miss. I could forecast possible cold or maybe not from that. 

[mountain shadow]

28 minutes ago, Neiller22 said:

It’s s joke. Also expect met office outlook to change to early Feb, then mid Feb, then late Feb then spring next year! Honestly I never pay much attention to their long range anyway. Changes with the wind generally. They are basically basing their forecast on this SSW which is hit and miss. I could forecast possible cold or maybe not from that. 

I would rather have them on board than not though.

Tamara PM'd me and seems to indicate the GWO will be more favourable again later in the month and early February. At least from the weekend into next week we might get some actual 'weather' rather than this endless cloudy benign mild muck. 

Edited January 7, 2019 by mountain shadow

[booferking]

15 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

I would rather have them on board than not though.

Tamara PM'd me and seems to indicate the GWO will be more favourable again later in the month and early February. At least from the weekend into next week we might get some actual 'weather' rather than this endless cloudy benign mild muck. 

I totally respect Tamara's knowledge on teleconnections and forecasting as it is second to none but there has been another player this year and hopefully we learn over the coming years what override these good background signals since November.

[Neiller22]

22 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

I would rather have them on board than not though.

Tamara PM'd me and seems to indicate the GWO will be more favourable again later in the month and early February. At least from the weekend into next week we might get some actual 'weather' rather than this endless cloudy benign mild muck. 

Fingers crossed. I’m just not convinced. It’s always being put back but hopefully some cold zonality soon. 

[Neiller22]

Another poor metro update. Looks like feb now. Utterly comical getting this along with their extended forecasting it has to be said. 

[mountain shadow]

2 minutes ago, Neiller22 said:

Another poor metro update. Looks like feb now. Utterly comical getting this along with their extended forecasting it has to be said. 

Looks much the same to me. Certainly the second half of the month will be more interesting than first six weeks of Winter.

[Neiller22]

10 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Looks much the same to me. Certainly the second half of the month will be more interesting than first six weeks of Winter.

Gone is possible snow to lower levels in north at times to be replaced by snow on hills. That’s a downgrade to me. Granted they still say colder start of Month in feb with snow possible but it’s constantly being pushed back. 

Edited January 7, 2019 by Neiller22

[mountain shadow]

Give yourselves a laugh, i've just read this thread from the beginning. 

 

[Neiller22]

It is MS. And what are we STILL all doing! WAITING

[Sperrin]

Might you lads have written off the winter too early? Big change today and those EC week 3 and 4 charts looks unreal. Plus we can see the GFS starting to sniff the same coffee. GEFS mean starting to fall nicely. Hovering around -5 850s @ 19th/20th January. 

I have a feeling the models will take off soon. Before that we might get a PM blast from the NW, too. My shed roof caved in last winter from the snow during January! 

I wonder what happened on 19th January last winter???

[mountain shadow]

No one has written Winter off but we're still waiting for it to begin.

Yes, there is "interest" and "potential " in the plus 12 days range but is far, far away.

 

[Sperrin]

GEFS continue to upgrade with the mean now below the -5 line from around the 20th. Hopefully this trend keeps coming closer to T+0

[mountain shadow]

Excellent Met Office update with the arrival of the colder condition now appearing on there two weekly update as opposed to the monthly. 

The latest weather update for Farmers in Ireland has today updated with predictions of the colder weather arriving around the 20th and the colder than average conditions expected to continue through to May!!

I wonder if Neiller has any inside information from the Airport.

[Rocheydub]

Indeed, there was a lot of toys from prams in here, I’ve always been fairly confident after the SSW and now the NWP are starting to reflect that!

Edited January 8, 2019 by Rocheydub

[Neiller22]

3 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

Excellent Met Office update with the arrival of the colder condition now appearing on there two weekly update as opposed to the monthly. 

The latest weather update for Farmers in Ireland has today updated with predictions of the colder weather arriving around the 20th and the colder than average conditions expected to continue through to May!!

I wonder if Neiller has any inside information from the Airport.

Been off last 5 five days as I worked basically all xmas and new year and not back until thurs but will know something then. Normal weekly update with MO usually a Friday but guy in work has told me all guys working on airfield on winter maintenance etc for runway and apron treatment have all been called in for updated training on all equipment for expected cold weather next couple of weeks. Will keep you posted. 

Edited January 8, 2019 by Neiller22

[O'Maille80]

Hi all! Long time lurker (well since last year's BFTE). Let's hope we get to see plenty of white stuff in the following months and everywhere in Ireland gets a good burying. Things certainly look like they're beginning to trend colder towards the final third of the month but obviously no guarantees this far out. I am optimistic though so fingers crossed. 

[mountain shadow]

Cold and snow is edging closer. Now into the day 9-11 range. Ensemble and means look good.

Give it another 24 to 48 hours to be sure.