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Ireland Regional Weather Discussion 13/12/2018 Onwards

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There’s always too much excitement re charts which are often weeks away and only to often as not for  these to be downgraded as time gets closer.

From what I can see it looks like. A general trend to cooler temperatures.... yes. Not as dry with possible occasional wintry showers.... probably. A month of freezing temps and widespread snow...Not

 

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18 minutes ago, Sparky72 said:

There’s always too much excitement re charts which are often weeks away and only to often as not for  these to be downgraded as time gets closer.

From what I can see it looks like. A general trend to cooler temperatures.... yes. Not as dry with possible occasional wintry showers.... probably. A month of freezing temps and widespread snow...Not

 

This is been happening far too often by so called cold rampers who always find a chart that fits their agenda, whether it is GEM 240hr, Navgem, GFSV3 at 300+ hours away. Quite logically output that shows mild within 144hr is ignored. Occasionally more respected rampers pull out some analogues from decades ago to excite the audience and so it goes. Winter of 70s or 800s are long gone with the shear persistence of cold and snow, just look at last decade, apart from 2010 December, snow has not been able to settle for more then a week at altitude below 200m in UK/IE. 

Looking at this winter even from an European perspective, it has only been a good winter for locations over 500m.asl, but if you look at cities like Berlin,Vienna,Prague,Budapest and Bratislava, the cold and snow has had hard time to stay for more then a week at best. Apart from Scandinavia,Baltics and higher ground elsewhere(above 500m.asl) it had been a frustrating winter so far. I am lucky to be living in a valley sheltered from westerlies and have kept a modest snow cover throughout, this winter is perhaps going to be record braking for snowfall in northern Alps, Tatras/Carpathian mountians. But if it is to any comfort to you guys in IE/UK it is nothing special so far,despite all the seasonal ramps/hype that preceded this. Lets see if second part of winter can deliver the goods.

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Well said Sparky!

Lets not have the snowflake mentality on the inside of the room as well as outside.

I'll be honest guys this room has become minus craic for me for a while. Its weather! There are trends we can follow and signs in nature we can read. We can hedge our bets and call ourselves winners either way but it will be what it will be.

I for one am enjoying the transition to something different. Shake things up a bit.

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We're looking at day ten again for something a bit more snowy and widespread, this time from the North West., lets see if its at day 9 tomorrow.

image.png.dffe535e32b2cc97235a31936da93197.png

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29 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

We're looking at day ten again for something a bit more snowy and widespread, this time from the North West., lets see if its at day 9 tomorrow.

image.png.dffe535e32b2cc97235a31936da93197.png

Always day 10. Never close. Keeps going soon be spring. Surely luck will change soon 

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Gfs p very interesting tonight for Greeny highs. Would be lovely for ECM to carry that baton on tonight! 

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Extremely frustrating how cold seems  endlessly pushed back beyond the day ten envelope and never seems to get within the reliable. Only hope is that the signal is there and IF the forcings do finally take hold then we could see things counting down. 🤞

Granted the roller coaster is all too familiar and reminiscent of a typical winter but it’s worth reminding ourselves that there’s nothing typical about the current atmospheric state. It may or may not work in our favour but it’s certainly enough to maintain interest and watch with fascination as everything unfolds. 

Personally, I’ll be maintaining optimism so long as the likes of G.P, Catacol and B.B 1962/3 are  blowing the cold trumpet. Last year seemed dead in the water until out of nowhere the boom charts started appearing, then as we were all expecting the watering down of cold potential it instead came forward with upgrade after upgrade. Phenomenal stuff!!! 

Micheal

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The GFS P is beautiful and after all thats t he model which is going to take over the GFS soon enough (after the orange headed buffoon gives up with the us govt. shutdown) and its within ten days too! Look at it. Fabulous.

image.png

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Not sure why so depressed on here, surely the cold spell wasn’t due to hit properly until next week. Looking at the ECM tonight it’s looking good for a decent cold spell from the 22nd!

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7 hours ago, jules216 said:

This is been happening far too often by so called cold rampers who always find a chart that fits their agenda, whether it is GEM 240hr, Navgem, GFSV3 at 300+ hours away. Quite logically output that shows mild within 144hr is ignored. Occasionally more respected rampers pull out some analogues from decades ago to excite the audience and so it goes. Winter of 70s or 800s are long gone with the shear persistence of cold and snow, just look at last decade, apart from 2010 December, snow has not been able to settle for more then a week at altitude below 200m in UK/IE. 

Looking at this winter even from an European perspective, it has only been a good winter for locations over 500m.asl, but if you look at cities like Berlin,Vienna,Prague,Budapest and Bratislava, the cold and snow has had hard time to stay for more then a week at best. Apart from Scandinavia,Baltics and higher ground elsewhere(above 500m.asl) it had been a frustrating winter so far. I am lucky to be living in a valley sheltered from westerlies and have kept a modest snow cover throughout, this winter is perhaps going to be record braking for snowfall in northern Alps, Tatras/Carpathian mountians. But if it is to any comfort to you guys in IE/UK it is nothing special so far,despite all the seasonal ramps/hype that preceded this. Lets see if second part of winter can deliver the goods.

I am beginning to wonder if you have some kind of agenda? Did I sleep through last year? 6ft plus snow drifts 3 days and nights of almost continues snow and blizzard conditions on the south east coast of Ireland less then 1km from coast. Now apart from that 'what have the romans ever done for us?'

IMG_0794.JPG

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T'would blow a knacker off his sister! And cover them in snow!!!

 

Serious good runs this evening, a segment of the polar vortex passing over us, settling in France as heights rise NW of us. All the major models showing it for 8/9/10 days time. Astonishing, and most importantly, fitting in with the narrative of the Tamara, Catacol and GP gang on the main board. It's coming folks.

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1 minute ago, Rocheydub said:

T'would blow a knacker off his sister!

🤣🤣🤣🤣 I am stealing this line 👍

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Hopefully we can increase the pinks for Wednesday and count down to t0.

Radars and lampposts in full view.

next week does look interesting but fearing come the end of this week there will still be a lot of talk of day 10, fingers crossed not, would love a snow day

9EA35903-BD30-4050-B72B-E494AD64E5B0.png

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Speaking of lamp post watching ...

 

To hell with the council. Bright white LEDs replaced the old halogen streetlights.😂Whatever will I do !

Edited by parrotingfantasist
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GFS is rubbish but to be expected with this government shutdown playing hell on it . GFS P is the one to look for

 

 

I say this but I really have no clue on what I'm talking about 

 

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The 12z have generally been good for cold, only for the 0z to download grade.  Let's see what tomorrow brings.

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Just getting a wee catchup in here. Good to hear that we could be getting some snow. Just back from Iceland and had a lot of snow over the last few days. Drove 4 hours through a blizzard today. Still haven't got the feeling back in my hands. Lol. Hopefully the snow God's are good to us here over the next month. 

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59 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

The 12z have generally been good for cold, only for the 0z to download grade.  Let's see what tomorrow brings.

I wonder if it has anything to do with the measurements of the boundary layer, the boundary layer depth is currently measured twice daily by launching weather balloons from about 100 locations so only two runs get the very latest information. This is changing to radar apparently (this could be one of the changes occurring in the new GFS) but this was announced only in Aug last year following research at Penn State. Note change will be all 4 runs get the data and supposedly more accurate data.

Edited by Ice Cube
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Latest ec46 still showing strong signal for heights to our northwest from next week onwards to week seven...ec ensembles very cold....SSW record breaking and long lasting with winds now reversing at 10hpa level.... and Glosea showing a cold signal for Feb and March.....its been a long road since November this hunt for cold but hopefully things are now falling in to place for a much colder and snowier second half to winter 

And still GFS is on a different planet but hopefully will smell the coffee soon...

Night all and snowy dreams 

Bottled Snow 

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Gfs to come in line next 24hrs. Can’t go on showing this rubbish! Or can it ? Time will tell. But something gotta give. 

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6 minutes ago, Bottled Snow said:

Latest ec46 still showing strong signal for heights to our northwest from next week onwards to week seven...ec ensembles very cold....SSW record breaking and long lasting with winds now reversing at 10hpa level.... and Glosea showing a cold signal for Feb and March.....its been a long road since November this hunt for cold but hopefully things are now falling in to place for a much colder and snowier second half to winter 

And still GFS is on a different planet but hopefully will smell the coffee soon...

Night all and snowy dreams 

Bottled Snow 

Afraid not below is last forecast from GloSea5 seen on Twitter.

New week same old uncertainty with the weather models. Colder conditions arrive late this week with increasing wintry shower risk for much of UK by weekend. Slight shift on GloSea5 (seasonal model) today of average or slightly above temps for February and March.

Screenshot_20190115-000235_Chrome.jpg

Hopefully GloSea is just having a wobble.

Edited by booferking
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2 minutes ago, booferking said:

Afraid not below is last forecast from GloSea5 seen on Twitter.

New week same old uncertainty with the weather models. Colder conditions arrive late this week with increasing wintry shower risk for much of UK by weekend. Slight shift on GloSea5 (seasonal model) today of average or slightly above temps for February and March.

Screenshot_20190115-000235_Chrome.jpg

Don’t like sound of that.! Ten days to save this woeful winter then. Not looking good then. Ah well always next year. But I hope it’s without this hyped SSW. Load of tosh. 

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