Ireland Regional Weather Discussion 13/12/2018 Onwards

[ronan]

Don't worry winter is coming

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

A lovely crisp morning for an early Christmas walk. Merry Christmas everyone hopefully we will get some white stuff but not in the spring

[booferking]

A Merry Christmas folks

[sundog]

Happy Christmas to all.

[Baltic Regions]

And with a few minutes to spare may we all have a restful Christmas and peaceful new year.

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

14 degrees predicted for Sunday, boak 

[Rocheydub]

Yeah, the outlook is bleak! Warm warm warm.

[ronan]

What an absolute crap start to winter! It's dire! Off to Iceland on the 10th for 10 days and even all the snow has melted up there. Hoping it turns colder again in time fore my trip. Hope you all had a great Christmas

[sundog]

This time ten yrs ago imby it started snowing so I welcomed in a white new yr. Alas certainly not this yr. Happy new year to all. 

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Happy New Year everyone, hopefully a good one for you all

[Eastantrim4]

Happy New Year to you all. I'm hoping from mid January onwards we might get some of that elusive white stuff.

Hope 2020 is good to you!

Edited January 1, 2020 by Eastantrim4
Spelling!

[Rocheydub]

HNY

[mountain shadow]

Happy New Year all.

Since my last post on the 16th the medium term prospects for snow remain appalling and I can't see anything happening until after the 22nd of January at least.

The Indian Ocean Dipole has waned so shouldn't inhibit the MJO orbit which will hopefully move into a favorable area of the planet for cold by month end. However, the caveat here, is that some other unknown will likely over run the MJO signal.

There remains the outside chance of tapping into some colder North Westerly air and even if we do, it would be short lived.

 

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

27 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Happy New Year all.

Since my last post on the 16th the medium term prospects for snow remain appalling and I can't see anything happening until after the 22nd of January at least.

The Indian Ocean Dipole has waned so shouldn't inhibit the MJO orbit which will hopefully move into a favorable area of the planet for cold by month end. However, the caveat here, is that some other unknown will likely over run the MJO signal.

There remains the outside chance of tapping into some colder North Westerly air and even if we do, it would be short lived.

 

Kinda over winter now, roll on spring!!

[booferking]

44 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Happy New Year all.

Since my last post on the 16th the medium term prospects for snow remain appalling and I can't see anything happening until after the 22nd of January at least.

The Indian Ocean Dipole has waned so shouldn't inhibit the MJO orbit which will hopefully move into a favorable area of the planet for cold by month end. However, the caveat here, is that some other unknown will likely over run the MJO signal.

There remains the outside chance of tapping into some colder North Westerly air and even if we do, it would be short lived.

 

Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has weakened but need to see large Daily Contribution like the period around 24th-26th and i bet there will be lag event from this, winter is over for me couldn't care less now what happens here snow cold wise but would love to see the droughts and fires in OZ (been hellish for them) ease so hopefully IOD plays ball along with AAO negative southern annular mode.

 

 

Edited January 2, 2020 by booferking

[mountain shadow]

1 minute ago, booferking said:

Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has weakened but need to see large Daily Contribution like the period around 24th-26th and i bet there will be lag event from this, winter is over for me couldn't care less now what happens here snow cold wise but would love to see the droughts and fires in OZ ease so hopefully IOD plays ball along with AAO negative southern annular mode.

And just has we all start to write of the remains of the Winter, GP has posted that things are looking up into week three of January with a vortex split. No doubt some other unforeseen teleconnection will scupper that too.

[booferking]

1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

And just has we all start to write of the remains of the Winter, GP has posted that things are looking up into week three of January with a vortex split. No doubt some other unforeseen teleconnection will scupper that too.

Seen that update I'm off to Philippines 28th Feb for few weeks then Portugal so mean reason why I'm not that fussed even with split still need to roll that perfect 6 dice for this small isle to get anything decent snow cold wise.

[BIG LAD]

Waiting for spring..

[Rocheydub]

15 hours ago, BIG LAD said:

Waiting for spring..

It's an awful looking set of runs over the last few days. Even suggestive height rises are gone next run!

 

The towel is in hand, the boxer is on his knees!

[Downburst]

Well, tomorrow - Tuesday will be really odd for January 7. 6.00 pm max 2m temps GFS. Early last June we'd be happy with that.

[BIG LAD]

Unreal temps for tomorrow. Unnatural. Although I think this time last year was very mild too.

[Rocheydub]

I recorded just shy of 17 degrees today on my weather station at 3.30 this afternoon. 16.85 to be precise. I'd imagine there will have been records broken today for January.

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

1 hour ago, Rocheydub said:

I recorded just shy of 17 degrees today on my weather station at 3.30 this afternoon. 16.85 to be precise. I'd imagine there will have been records broken today for January.

Horrible to see but interesting at the same time 

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

I notice some chat of snow for Sunday,.anyone hearing this?

[Downburst]

1 hour ago, ForeverPomeroysnow said:

I notice some chat of snow for Sunday,.anyone hearing this?

Reasonable chance it seems. As usual with gfs, uppers Might be mixed out a little by Sunday, but looks good for anywhere in north west especially with elevation.  

Edited January 8, 2020 by Downburst