Ireland Regional Weather Discussion 13/12/2018 Onwards

[Bottled Snow]

2 minutes ago, booferking said:

Afraid not below is last forecast from GloSea5 seen on Twitter.

New week same old uncertainty with the weather models. Colder conditions arrive late this week with increasing wintry shower risk for much of UK by weekend. Slight shift on GloSea5 (seasonal model) today of average or slightly above temps for February and March.

If you go to the model tweet thread Booferking you will see that Ian Ferguson of UK MET rubbished that tweet from Essex Weather....all still good in the hood 

[Neiller22]

Just now, Bottled Snow said:

If you go to the model tweet thread Booferking you will see that Ian Ferguson of UK MET rubbished that tweet from Essex Weather....all still good in the hood 

Good lord I don’t know what to believe then in that case. I give up. Good fun this though 

[Bottled Snow]

1 minute ago, Neiller22 said:

Good lord I don’t know what to believe then in that case. I give up. Good fun this though 

think I will stick with Ian Ferguson especially as it means better chance of snow

[booferking]

2 minutes ago, Bottled Snow said:

think I will stick with Ian Ferguson especially as it means better chance of snow

To be fair to Essex Weather they say average in the south and go on to say nothing mild or very mild showing further in there replies in the tweet so the crazy winter snow hunt continues hopefully we hit the next week.

[mountain shadow]

ECMWF brilliant overnight,  GFS rubbish as ever.  UKMET only goes out to T+144 and doesn't look as good as ECMWF at that point. 

At least from Wednesday night onwards we lose the double digit temperatures and may get some frosts.

[Bottled Snow]

19 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

ECMWF brilliant overnight,  GFS rubbish as ever.  UKMET only goes out to T+144 and doesn't look as good as ECMWF at that point. 

At least from Wednesday night onwards we lose the double digit temperatures and may get some frosts.

ICON probably best of all but not sure how reliable that is. Yes ecm looks excellent again although uppers a bit disappointing but all liable to change 

[Neiller22]

ECM great rest pretty poor. Nothing out of the ordinary weather wise so all pretty meow! WAit goes on, and on and on and on. Usual 10 days. 

[mountain shadow]

23 minutes ago, Neiller22 said:

ECM great rest pretty poor. Nothing out of the ordinary weather wise so all pretty meow! WAit goes on, and on and on and on. Usual 10 days. 

Well, even the ECM would be longer than 10 days, probably day 14 before the snow arrived.

[Neiller22]

2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Well, even the ECM would be longer than 10 days, probably day 14 before the snow arrived.

The models and met office have been abysmal in forecasting this supposed cold spell. Always in never never land. Honestly think this may never happen. 

[mountain shadow]

16 minutes ago, Neiller22 said:

The models and met office have been abysmal in forecasting this supposed cold spell. Always in never never land. Honestly think this may never happen. 

I think they thought that the SSW would impact about 2 to 3 weeks after it started (boxing day), however, it has been a slow down welling and we still wait to see what will occur.

[Neiller22]

There you go the dreaded met office update. Game over now in my eyes. That is a huge downgrade and to me what I have been expecting as I just couldn’t buy Into this big freeze scenario. Still chance for snow but that’s a very poor update. 

[Sparky72]

26 minutes ago, Neiller22 said:

There you go the dreaded met office update. Game over now in my eyes. That is a huge downgrade and to me what I have been expecting as I just couldn’t buy Into this big freeze scenario. Still chance for snow but that’s a very poor update. 

Yip!

maybe it was all a big conspiracy by all the supermarkets to try and get rid of their over stock in salt and antifreeze!

[Neiller22]

25 minutes ago, Sparky72 said:

Yip!

maybe it was all a big conspiracy by all the supermarkets to try and get rid of their over stock in salt and antifreeze!

It’s what I expected as I couldn’t get excited about this supposed cold spell. GFS has never been on board. That for me was the killer blow. 

Look when I’m stating it’s a big downgrade I’m talking in generally sense for all uk and Ireland but the update is not bad for us here compared to southern UK  and we could do extremely well but it’s certainly a downgrade in update from met office for southern uk and when that starts happening I always get wary that cold may start moving north of us. But I wouldn’t  be surprised for more downgrades in the days ahead but hope we can stay north enough for cold weather  

 

Edited January 15, 2019 by Neiller22

[hamba]

The metoffice has me down for 40% snow on Thursday but I guess its very unlikely.

[mountain shadow]

1 minute ago, hamba said:

The metoffice has me down for 40% snow on Thursday but I guess its very unlikely.

Well, it's just less than likely as only 40%!

As disappointing as the Met Office update is, I think there may be more colder North Westerly types so till chances of snow at month end/into February.

I think the ship may be starting to sail on a widespread and longer lasting cold snowy spell though. 

 

[hamba]

funny, I just checked bbc and they have the same time frame with 3% and clear skies.

[Neiller22]

21 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Well, it's just less than likely as only 40%!

As disappointing as the Met Office update is, I think there may be more colder North Westerly types so till chances of snow at month end/into February.

I think the ship may be starting to sail on a widespread and longer lasting cold snowy spell though. 

 

Yep hopefully still get a bit of snow but I think cold spell is dead and buried. Will certainly be nowhere near as good as last winter. 

Word from work after met office weekly meeting is risk of cold end of January into early Feb had gone from high risk to average risk now. So that’s a big step down from them too. They said there could be the odd snowfall but nothing crippling to affect the airport. However confidence was low and it could very easily upgrade again 

Edited January 15, 2019 by Neiller22

[StormyWeather28]

Are you guys talking about the Met office 30 day outlook? If so I'm lost it looks practically the same. 

[Neiller22]

6 minutes ago, StormyWeather28 said:

Are you guys talking about the Met office 30 day outlook? If so I'm lost it looks practically the same. 

It’s complety different wording from yest. 

[mountain shadow]

8 minutes ago, StormyWeather28 said:

Are you guys talking about the Met office 30 day outlook? If so I'm lost it looks practically the same. 

No, it has changed and now it looks like cold snaps interspersed with less cold spells as opposed to a more prolonged cold/snowy spell.

[booferking]

And the met update will change again not so sure why all so hung up on it changes as much as the cannon folder global forecasting system (GFS).

[Neiller22]

10 minutes ago, booferking said:

And the met update will change again not so sure why all so hung up on it changes as much as the cannon folder global forecasting system (GFS).

Well we all love it when it gives an upgrade so we have to comment when it’s a downgrade too but of course it could change 

[bobbarley]

To be honest I don’t notice a drastic change in update, and for a lot of us in the north and west easterlies only means cold and dry

[StormyWeather28]

Well we'll agree to disagree then. First part sleet snow spreading SE with frost following and cold. Cold continuing through midweek, snow especially likely in the northern half. Cold conditions likely to remain until the end of the period which is the 29th

UK Outlook for Sunday 20 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 29 Jan 2019:

Sunday will be cold across the UK, but for many it will be dry; brightest in the southeast. Some light rain or sleet is possible in the southwest at first; then a band of rain, sleet and snow is likely to spread across the northwest later, moving erratically southeast. Overnight frost and freezing fog patches are likely overnight into Monday. Cold weather is likely to continue through mid-week, remaining unsettled and at times windy with fronts spreading southeast across the UK bringing rain, sleet and snow. Snow is most likely over north and eastern areas and over high ground. Similar cold conditions are likely to remain in place until the end of the period, interspersed with brighter showery spells, although these could also be wintry. Overnight frosts will remain likely.

Second part mentions it will be cold with frost and snow especially higher ground in North but increasingly to lower levels

UK Outlook for Wednesday 30 Jan 2019 to Wednesday 13 Feb 2019:

Cold but changeable conditions will be in place at the start of the extended outlook with spells of strong winds and rain, turning to snow at times. Overnight frosts are likely and snow, mainly over higher ground in the north, but with an increased risk to lower levels. The details of any disruptive snow remains uncertain. Milder, wetter interludes are possible, most likely in the south but with these comes an increased risk of snow and ice further north.

 

Honestly do not get the over the top reactions. It's not like there going for a mild Atlantic dominated pattern and it's pretty much the same as yesterday just different wording. Cold and snow is used throughout. The outlook accuracy is always poor imo, changes alot because accuracy out to 30 days is poor. 

 

I guess people are just fed up with the blandness 

[booferking]

3 minutes ago, Neiller22 said:

Well we all love it when it gives an upgrade so we have to comment when it’s a downgrade too but of course it could change 

And for the same reason i wouldn't get to hung up if it was saying snow and blizzard conditions works both ways until the models are showing me snow at reliable time frame the rollercoaster party goes on.